Brückenbauer Fukuda
Japans neuer Premier Yasuo Fukuda verglich vor seiner Abreise nach Peking die Aufnahme diplomatischer Beziehungen 1972 zu China mit dem Bau einer Hängebrücke. Wer die Geschichte zwischen beiden Staaten seit den Gräueltaten des Weltkrieges kennt, weiß, wie wackelig diese erste Verbindung noch war. Sechs Jahre später schlossen Tokio und Peking einen Friedens- und Freundschaftsvertrag. Fukuda nennt ihn eine stählerne Brücke. Weil beide Staaten einen Neuanfang nach ihrer Kriegsgeschichte wagten. Weil 1978 das Jahr war, mit dem Chinas Reformen begannen. Der dritte Grund ist persönlich: Weil Premier Takeo Fukuda, der vor 30 Jahren den Mut zum Deal mit China hatte, sein Vater war. Danach kam es zu einer Reihe von Rückschlägen auf beiden Seiten. Sie waren immer wieder mit der unbewältigten Erinnerung an die Vergangenheit verbunden. Jetzt ist Sohn Fukuda gekommen, um neue Brücken zu bauen. Er nannte nur einen Grund dafür: "Einer kommt nicht mehr ohne den anderen aus." Die Liste ist lang geworden, vom Kampf gegen den Terrorismus bis zum Klimaschutz. Oder beim Handel, wo China seit 2007 für Japan ein größerer Partner als die USA geworden ist. Japan und China brauchen einander. Keiner von beiden will, dass ihre historische Frage von der Straße beantwortet wird. Sie haben Geschichtskommissionen eingesetzt. Japan steckt beim Yasukuni-Schrein zurück. In China geht die Saat eines neuen Denkens auf. Seine gerade würdig begangene Erinnerung an Japans Massaker in Nanking vom Dezember 1937 hat den Besuch Fukudas nicht tangiert. Peking bat ihn für die letzten Tage des alten Jahres zu Gast. Im Blick haben beide die Feier zum 30. Jahrestag des Freundschaftsvertrags, der auf das Olympiajahr 2008 fällt. Die Probleme zwischen beiden Staaten bleiben bestehen. Sie scheinen aber endlich zu begreifen, dass sie nicht umhinkommen, viele Brücken zwischen sich zu bauen.
2007年12月28日星期五
2007年12月14日星期五
A political spat with China puts German businesses on edge
Germany and China
Broken pottery
Dec 13th 2007 | FRANKFURT
From The Economist print edition
EIGHT life-size terracotta warriors, thought to be from Xian, China, went on display in Hamburg on November 25th, but are now suspected of being fakes. Museum officials are investigating the latest twist in Germany's fraught relations with China, which took a nosedive after Chancellor Angela Merkel received the Dalai Lama on September 23rd.
The worries about China come as German businessmen are having a difficult time with Ms Merkel closer to home. She has attacked the excessive pay of top executives who put their companies at risk at the expense of other employees, though she stops short of proposing a legal ceiling. She has also threatened to impose a minimum wage on more industries where collective agreements are being side-stepped. German business confidence fell to a 15-year low in the latest poll carried out by ZEW, a research centre in Mannheim.
China regards official contacts with the Dalai Lama, in exile from Tibet since 1959, as a threat to the stability of the province. In late November Wen Jiabao, the Chinese prime minister, demanded an apology, which Ms Merkel shows no sign of giving. Various official visits have been cancelled, including one by Germany's finance minister, Peer Steinbrück, and apprehension is seeping into the business community.
Deutsche Post recently said it had refused to print ready-franked envelopes bearing an image of the Dalai Lama—an attempt to steer clear of the political fracas. Der Spiegel, a weekly magazine, cancelled an exhibition at a museum in Shanghai after complaints about its content. This is small beer, but the evidence is mounting that business as well as political relations between Germany and China are going through a brief ice age. Jürgen Thumann, head of the Federation of German Industry, has urged the government to enter “constructive dialogue” with China. Other industrial leaders have dived for cover since Jürgen Hambrecht, boss of BASF, said the handling of the Dalai Lama's visit was “not very clever”. Ekkehard Schulz, head of ThyssenKrupp, an industrial giant, refused to comment on the matter on December 4th when revealing record profits, due in part to buoyant business in Asia.
There are still hopes that a visit to China by Sigmar Gabriel, the environment minister, will go ahead at the end of January as planned. A lot is at stake. China is Germany's second-biggest export customer outside Europe, and carmakers, chemical firms and makers of industrial machinery are relying on it for growth. Meanwhile the German economy benefits from cheap furniture, office equipment and sports goods from China. These flows are unlikely to be affected in the short term. And big contracts, such as those for Airbus aircraft and nuclear power-stations, in which German firms are members of international consortia, should survive unscathed. But bilateral deals are more at risk.
German projects in the pipeline in China include a €150m ($220m) tyre plant to be built by Continental in Hefei, and two joint-ventures being set up by Daimler to build vans and trucks. Siemens and ThyssenKrupp are hoping for the go-ahead to extend Transrapid, Shanghai's high-speed rail system. Many firms publicly say they are not worried, but there is “growing concern that things are getting more difficult for German business,” says Eberhard Sandschneider of the German Council on Foreign Relations. “China has a record of playing games—not having time for meetings, not signing documents and so on.”
What now? The city of Hamburg, where 400 Chinese firms are registered, hopes it can help to bring about a thaw. In 2006 it hosted an event, “China meets Europe”, which was attended by Mr Wen and three other ministers. Preparations for a similar event scheduled for next September “could be a catalyst for better relations,” says Jens Assmann of Hamburg's Chamber of Commerce. German bosses must be hoping that their strained relations with China—and with Ms Merkel—will improve before then.
Broken pottery
Dec 13th 2007 | FRANKFURT
From The Economist print edition
EIGHT life-size terracotta warriors, thought to be from Xian, China, went on display in Hamburg on November 25th, but are now suspected of being fakes. Museum officials are investigating the latest twist in Germany's fraught relations with China, which took a nosedive after Chancellor Angela Merkel received the Dalai Lama on September 23rd.
The worries about China come as German businessmen are having a difficult time with Ms Merkel closer to home. She has attacked the excessive pay of top executives who put their companies at risk at the expense of other employees, though she stops short of proposing a legal ceiling. She has also threatened to impose a minimum wage on more industries where collective agreements are being side-stepped. German business confidence fell to a 15-year low in the latest poll carried out by ZEW, a research centre in Mannheim.
China regards official contacts with the Dalai Lama, in exile from Tibet since 1959, as a threat to the stability of the province. In late November Wen Jiabao, the Chinese prime minister, demanded an apology, which Ms Merkel shows no sign of giving. Various official visits have been cancelled, including one by Germany's finance minister, Peer Steinbrück, and apprehension is seeping into the business community.
Deutsche Post recently said it had refused to print ready-franked envelopes bearing an image of the Dalai Lama—an attempt to steer clear of the political fracas. Der Spiegel, a weekly magazine, cancelled an exhibition at a museum in Shanghai after complaints about its content. This is small beer, but the evidence is mounting that business as well as political relations between Germany and China are going through a brief ice age. Jürgen Thumann, head of the Federation of German Industry, has urged the government to enter “constructive dialogue” with China. Other industrial leaders have dived for cover since Jürgen Hambrecht, boss of BASF, said the handling of the Dalai Lama's visit was “not very clever”. Ekkehard Schulz, head of ThyssenKrupp, an industrial giant, refused to comment on the matter on December 4th when revealing record profits, due in part to buoyant business in Asia.
There are still hopes that a visit to China by Sigmar Gabriel, the environment minister, will go ahead at the end of January as planned. A lot is at stake. China is Germany's second-biggest export customer outside Europe, and carmakers, chemical firms and makers of industrial machinery are relying on it for growth. Meanwhile the German economy benefits from cheap furniture, office equipment and sports goods from China. These flows are unlikely to be affected in the short term. And big contracts, such as those for Airbus aircraft and nuclear power-stations, in which German firms are members of international consortia, should survive unscathed. But bilateral deals are more at risk.
German projects in the pipeline in China include a €150m ($220m) tyre plant to be built by Continental in Hefei, and two joint-ventures being set up by Daimler to build vans and trucks. Siemens and ThyssenKrupp are hoping for the go-ahead to extend Transrapid, Shanghai's high-speed rail system. Many firms publicly say they are not worried, but there is “growing concern that things are getting more difficult for German business,” says Eberhard Sandschneider of the German Council on Foreign Relations. “China has a record of playing games—not having time for meetings, not signing documents and so on.”
What now? The city of Hamburg, where 400 Chinese firms are registered, hopes it can help to bring about a thaw. In 2006 it hosted an event, “China meets Europe”, which was attended by Mr Wen and three other ministers. Preparations for a similar event scheduled for next September “could be a catalyst for better relations,” says Jens Assmann of Hamburg's Chamber of Commerce. German bosses must be hoping that their strained relations with China—and with Ms Merkel—will improve before then.
TIME FOR EU TO END TIT-FOR-TAT APPROACH TO CHINA
Patrick Messerlin and Razeen Sally
Friday, December 14, 2007
European rhetoric aimed at China is becoming American in style: confrontational and shrill. Trade deficits and exchange rates are the lightning-rods. European Union threats of retaliation have become more frequent.
This new China-bashing is muddle-headed and dangerous. On deficits and exchange rates, the EU's diagnosis is nonsense. It is true the EU's trade deficit with China is soaring, hitting $166.4bn in 2006. While that is still smaller than the US-China trade deficit the deficit has grown much faster. The Chinese renminbi has depreciated about 25 per cent against the euro since 2000, while it has appreciated about 10 per cent against the dollar.
However, the bilateral trade deficit is not a problem. The EU imports more from China, but correspondingly less from other east-Asian countries: the EU's trade deficits have simply shifted from the latter to China. That is because China has become the final-assembly hub for goods exported to the rest of the world. Its corollary is increasing Chinese imports of parts and components from the west and east Asia. The trade deficit is a natural consequence of a massive global reshaping of trade and production.
This obsession with trade deficits also obscures phenomenally good news. Low-cost Chinese imports have been a boon to European consumers, retailers and producers. EU exports to China have more than doubled since 2000 and have grown faster than to any other export destination. European companies have invested over $56bn in China and generated total sales of $134bn in 2006. A big chunk of this was in the form of exports back to Europe. But Chinese domestic sales are growing too: European companies are targeting China's coastal provinces – a market of more than 400m people with explosive rates of growth and a middle class hungry for better-quality goods and services.
The EU has real commercial problems with China, notably the implementation of its World Trade Organisation obligations and domestic obstruction of foreign trade and investment. These are genuine, not bogus. But tit-for-tat protectionism from Brussels will make problems worse, not better. What should the EU do instead?
First, it should deal with its trade and non-trade objectives (such as democracy, human rights and climate change) on separate tracks. Linking them gets Chinese backs up and works against compromise. Far better to tackle commercial issues in a contained, businesslike setting.
Second, the EU should accord China “market-economy status” (MES). Its argument – that China does not yet meet specified market-economy criteria – is specious. These criteria are vague and arbitrary. China is now more market-oriented than Russia and most other developing countries. Yet the EU accords Russia and other developing countries MES, but not China.
Third, the EU and China could agree a series of reciprocal, mutually beneficial concessions as part of an improved bilateral co-operation outside the political theatre of trade negotiations.
In addition to granting China MES, the EU should agree to exercise restraint in using trade remedies generally, such as anti-dumping duties, China-specific “transitional safeguards” and countervailing duties. In return, it should ask China for better, targeted enforcement of intellectual property rights; further opening of China's services markets, especially by addressing domestic regulatory barriers; removal of foreign-investment restrictions in core services sectors; more transparency in subsidies to state-owned enterprises (SOEs); and higher transparency standards for Chinese SOEs and “sovereign wealth funds” that increasingly invest abroad.
These are measures that would contain protectionism on both sides and deepen commercial ties. They would also create political space for Beijing's leadership to continue structural reforms to open its economy further.
Commercial relations between the EU and China could easily end up the other way around, with escalating tit-for-tat protectionism. The EU is the world's biggest trade and investment entity and has a key role to play in smoothing China's integration into the world economy. It should not undermine that chance by becoming increasingly shrill about bogus trade issues.
Razeen Sally is director of the European Centre for International Political Economy in Brussels. Patrick Messerlin is professor of economics at the Institut d'Etudes Politiques in Paris, and chairman of ECIPE's advisory board.
Friday, December 14, 2007
European rhetoric aimed at China is becoming American in style: confrontational and shrill. Trade deficits and exchange rates are the lightning-rods. European Union threats of retaliation have become more frequent.
This new China-bashing is muddle-headed and dangerous. On deficits and exchange rates, the EU's diagnosis is nonsense. It is true the EU's trade deficit with China is soaring, hitting $166.4bn in 2006. While that is still smaller than the US-China trade deficit the deficit has grown much faster. The Chinese renminbi has depreciated about 25 per cent against the euro since 2000, while it has appreciated about 10 per cent against the dollar.
However, the bilateral trade deficit is not a problem. The EU imports more from China, but correspondingly less from other east-Asian countries: the EU's trade deficits have simply shifted from the latter to China. That is because China has become the final-assembly hub for goods exported to the rest of the world. Its corollary is increasing Chinese imports of parts and components from the west and east Asia. The trade deficit is a natural consequence of a massive global reshaping of trade and production.
This obsession with trade deficits also obscures phenomenally good news. Low-cost Chinese imports have been a boon to European consumers, retailers and producers. EU exports to China have more than doubled since 2000 and have grown faster than to any other export destination. European companies have invested over $56bn in China and generated total sales of $134bn in 2006. A big chunk of this was in the form of exports back to Europe. But Chinese domestic sales are growing too: European companies are targeting China's coastal provinces – a market of more than 400m people with explosive rates of growth and a middle class hungry for better-quality goods and services.
The EU has real commercial problems with China, notably the implementation of its World Trade Organisation obligations and domestic obstruction of foreign trade and investment. These are genuine, not bogus. But tit-for-tat protectionism from Brussels will make problems worse, not better. What should the EU do instead?
First, it should deal with its trade and non-trade objectives (such as democracy, human rights and climate change) on separate tracks. Linking them gets Chinese backs up and works against compromise. Far better to tackle commercial issues in a contained, businesslike setting.
Second, the EU should accord China “market-economy status” (MES). Its argument – that China does not yet meet specified market-economy criteria – is specious. These criteria are vague and arbitrary. China is now more market-oriented than Russia and most other developing countries. Yet the EU accords Russia and other developing countries MES, but not China.
Third, the EU and China could agree a series of reciprocal, mutually beneficial concessions as part of an improved bilateral co-operation outside the political theatre of trade negotiations.
In addition to granting China MES, the EU should agree to exercise restraint in using trade remedies generally, such as anti-dumping duties, China-specific “transitional safeguards” and countervailing duties. In return, it should ask China for better, targeted enforcement of intellectual property rights; further opening of China's services markets, especially by addressing domestic regulatory barriers; removal of foreign-investment restrictions in core services sectors; more transparency in subsidies to state-owned enterprises (SOEs); and higher transparency standards for Chinese SOEs and “sovereign wealth funds” that increasingly invest abroad.
These are measures that would contain protectionism on both sides and deepen commercial ties. They would also create political space for Beijing's leadership to continue structural reforms to open its economy further.
Commercial relations between the EU and China could easily end up the other way around, with escalating tit-for-tat protectionism. The EU is the world's biggest trade and investment entity and has a key role to play in smoothing China's integration into the world economy. It should not undermine that chance by becoming increasingly shrill about bogus trade issues.
Razeen Sally is director of the European Centre for International Political Economy in Brussels. Patrick Messerlin is professor of economics at the Institut d'Etudes Politiques in Paris, and chairman of ECIPE's advisory board.
2007年12月10日星期一
Beauty and success
To those that have, shall be given
Dec 19th 2007
The ugly are one of the few groups against whom it is still legal to discriminate. Unfortunately for them, there are good reasons why beauty and success go hand in hand
Illustration by Brett Ryder
IMAGINE you have two candidates for a job. They are both of the same sex—and that sex is the one your own proclivities incline you to find attractive. Their CVs are equally good, and they both give good interview. You cannot help noticing, though, that one is pug-ugly and the other is handsome. Are you swayed by their appearance?
Perhaps not. But lesser, less-moral mortals might be. If appearance did not count, why would people dress up for such interviews—even if the job they are hoping to get is dressed down? And job interviews are turning points in life. If beauty sways interviewers, the beautiful will, by and large, have more successful careers than the ugly—even in careers for which beauty is not a necessary qualification.
If you were swayed by someone's looks, however, would that be wrong? In a society that eschews prejudice, favouring the beautiful seems about as shallow as you can get. But it was not always thus. In the past, people often equated beauty with virtue and ugliness with vice.
Even now, the expression “as ugly as sin” has not quite passed from the language. There is, of course, the equally famous expression “beauty is in the eye of the beholder”, to counter it. But the subtext of that old saw, that beauty is arbitrary, is wrong. Most beholders agree what is beautiful—and modern biology suggests there is a good reason for that agreement. Biology also suggests that beauty may, indeed, be a good rule of thumb for assessing someone of either sex. Not an infallible one, and certainly no substitute for an in-depth investigation. But, nevertheless, an instinctive one, and one that is bound to redound to the advantage of the physically well endowed.
Fearful symmetry
The godfather of scientific study of beauty is Randy Thornhill, of the University of New Mexico. It was Dr Thornhill who, a little over a decade ago, took an observation he originally made about insects and dared to apply it to people.
The insects in question were scorpion flies, and the observation was that those flies whose wings were most symmetrical were the ones that did best in the mating stakes. Dr Thornhill thought this preference for symmetry might turn out to be universal in the animal kingdom (and it does indeed seem to be). In particular, he showed it is true of people. He started with faces, manipulating pictures to make them more and less symmetrical, and having volunteers of the opposite sex rank them for attractiveness. But he has gone on to show that all aspects of bodily symmetry contribute, down to the lengths of corresponding fingers, and that the assessment applies to those of the same sex, as well.
The reason seems to be that perfect symmetry is hard for a developing embryo to maintain. The embryo that can maintain it obviously has good genes (and also a certain amount of luck). It is, therefore, more than just coincidence that the words “health and beauty” trip so easily off the tongue as a single phrase.
Other aspects of beauty, too, are indicators of health. Skin and hair condition, in particular, are sensitive to illness, malnutrition and so on (or, perhaps it would be better to say that people's perceptions are exquisitely tuned to detect perfection and flaws in such things). And more recent work has demonstrated another association. Contrary to the old jokes about dumb blondes, beautiful people seem to be cleverer, too.
One of the most detailed studies on the link between beauty and intelligence was done by Mark Prokosch, Ronald Yeo and Geoffrey Miller, who also work at the University of New Mexico. These three researchers correlated people's bodily symmetry with their performance on intelligence tests. Such tests come in many varieties, of course, and have a controversial background. But most workers in the field agree that there is a quality, normally referred to as “general intelligence”, or “g”, that such tests can measure objectively along with specific abilities in such areas as spatial awareness and language. Dr Miller and his colleagues found that the more a test was designed to measure g, the more the results were correlated with bodily symmetry—particularly in the bottom half of the beauty-ugliness spectrum.
Faces, too, seem to carry information on intelligence. A few years ago, two of the world's face experts, Leslie Zebrowitz, of Brandeis University in Massachusetts, and Gillian Rhodes, of the University of Western Australia, got together to review the literature and conduct some fresh experiments. They found nine past studies (seven of them conducted before the second world war, an indication of how old interest in this subject is), and subjected them to what is known as a meta-analysis.
The studies in question had all used more or less the same methodology, namely photograph people and ask them to do IQ tests, then show the photographs to other people and ask the second lot to rank the intelligence of the first lot. The results suggested that people get such judgments right—by no means all the time, but often enough to be significant. The two researchers and their colleagues then carried out their own experiment, with the added twist of dividing their subjects up by age.
Bright blondes
The results of that were rather surprising. They found that the faces of children and adults of middling years did seem to give away intelligence, while those of teenagers and the elderly did not. That is surprising because face-reading of this sort must surely be important in mate selection, and the teenage years are the time when such selection is likely to be at its most intense—though, conversely, they are also the time when evolution will be working hardest to cover up any deficiencies, and the hormone-driven changes taking place during puberty might provide the material needed to do that.
Nevertheless, the accumulating evidence suggests that physical characteristics do give clues about intelligence, that such clues are picked up by other people, and that these clues are also associated with beauty. And other work also suggests that this really does matter.
One of the leading students of beauty and success is Daniel Hamermesh of the University of Texas. Dr Hamermesh is an economist rather than a biologist, and thus brings a somewhat different perspective to the field. He has collected evidence from more than one continent that beauty really is associated with success—at least, with financial success. He has also shown that, if all else is equal, it might be a perfectly legitimate business strategy to hire the more beautiful candidate.
Just over a decade ago Dr Hamermesh presided over a series of surveys in the United States and Canada which showed that when all other things are taken into account, ugly people earn less than average incomes, while beautiful people earn more than the average. The ugliness “penalty” for men was -9% while the beauty premium was +5%. For women, perhaps surprisingly considering popular prejudices about the sexes, the effect was less: the ugliness penalty was -6% while the beauty premium was +4%.
Since then, he has gone on to measure these effects in other places. In China, ugliness is penalised more in women, but beauty is more rewarded. The figures for men in Shanghai are –25% and +3%; for women they are –31% and +10%. In Britain, ugly men do worse than ugly women (-18% as against -11%) but the beauty premium is the same for both (and only +1%).
The difference also applies within professions. Dr Hamermesh looked at the careers of members of a particular (though discreetly anonymous) American law school. He found that those rated attractive on the basis of their graduation photographs went on to earn higher salaries than their less well-favoured colleagues. Moreover, lawyers in private practice tended to be better looking than those working in government departments.
Illustration by Brett RyderEven more unfairly, Dr Hamermesh found evidence that beautiful people may bring more revenue to their employers than the less-favoured do. His study of Dutch advertising firms showed that those with the most beautiful executives had the largest size-adjusted revenues—a difference that exceeded the salary differentials of the firms in question. Finally, to add insult to injury, he found that even in his own cerebral and, one might have thought, beauty-blind profession, attractive candidates were more successful in elections for office in the American Economic Association.
That last distinction also applies to elections to public office, as was neatly demonstrated by Niclas Berggren, of the Ratio Institute in Stockholm, and his colleagues. Dr Berggren's team looked at almost 2,000 candidates in Finnish elections. They asked foreigners (mainly Americans and Swedes) to examine the candidates' campaign photographs and rank them for beauty. They then compared those rankings with the actual election results. They were able to eliminate the effects of party preference because Finland has a system of proportional representation that pits candidates of the same party against one another. Lo and behold, the more beautiful candidates, as ranked by people who knew nothing of Finland's internal politics, tended to have been the more successful—though in this case, unlike Dr Hamermesh's economic results, the effect was larger for women than for men.
If looks could kill
What these results suggest is a two-fold process, sadly reminiscent of the biblical quotation to which the title of this article refers. There is a feedback loop between biology and the social environment that gives to those who have, and takes from those who have not.
That happens because beauty is a real marker for other, underlying characteristics such as health, good genes and intelligence. It is what biologists call an unfakeable signal, like the deep roar of a big, rutting stag that smaller adolescents are physically incapable of producing. It therefore makes biological sense for people to prefer beautiful friends and lovers, since the first will make good allies, and the second, good mates.
That brings the beautiful opportunities denied to the ugly, which allows them to learn things and make connections that increase their value still further. If they are judged on that experience as well as their biological fitness, it makes them even more attractive. Even a small initial difference can thus be amplified into something that just ain't—viewed from the bottom—fair.
Given all this, it is hardly surprising that the cosmetics industry has global sales of $280 billion. But can you really fake the unfakeable signal?
Dr Hamermesh's research suggests that you can but, sadly, that it is not cost-effective—at least, not if your purpose is career advancement. Working in Shanghai, where the difference between the ugliness penalty and the beauty bonus was greatest, he looked at how women's spending on their cosmetics and clothes affected their income.
The answer was that it did, but not enough to pay for itself in a strictly financial sense. He estimates that the beauty premium generated by such primping is worth only 15% of the money expended. Of course, beauty pays off in spheres of life other than the workplace. But that, best beloved, would be the subject of a rather different article.
Dec 19th 2007
The ugly are one of the few groups against whom it is still legal to discriminate. Unfortunately for them, there are good reasons why beauty and success go hand in hand
Illustration by Brett Ryder
IMAGINE you have two candidates for a job. They are both of the same sex—and that sex is the one your own proclivities incline you to find attractive. Their CVs are equally good, and they both give good interview. You cannot help noticing, though, that one is pug-ugly and the other is handsome. Are you swayed by their appearance?
Perhaps not. But lesser, less-moral mortals might be. If appearance did not count, why would people dress up for such interviews—even if the job they are hoping to get is dressed down? And job interviews are turning points in life. If beauty sways interviewers, the beautiful will, by and large, have more successful careers than the ugly—even in careers for which beauty is not a necessary qualification.
If you were swayed by someone's looks, however, would that be wrong? In a society that eschews prejudice, favouring the beautiful seems about as shallow as you can get. But it was not always thus. In the past, people often equated beauty with virtue and ugliness with vice.
Even now, the expression “as ugly as sin” has not quite passed from the language. There is, of course, the equally famous expression “beauty is in the eye of the beholder”, to counter it. But the subtext of that old saw, that beauty is arbitrary, is wrong. Most beholders agree what is beautiful—and modern biology suggests there is a good reason for that agreement. Biology also suggests that beauty may, indeed, be a good rule of thumb for assessing someone of either sex. Not an infallible one, and certainly no substitute for an in-depth investigation. But, nevertheless, an instinctive one, and one that is bound to redound to the advantage of the physically well endowed.
Fearful symmetry
The godfather of scientific study of beauty is Randy Thornhill, of the University of New Mexico. It was Dr Thornhill who, a little over a decade ago, took an observation he originally made about insects and dared to apply it to people.
The insects in question were scorpion flies, and the observation was that those flies whose wings were most symmetrical were the ones that did best in the mating stakes. Dr Thornhill thought this preference for symmetry might turn out to be universal in the animal kingdom (and it does indeed seem to be). In particular, he showed it is true of people. He started with faces, manipulating pictures to make them more and less symmetrical, and having volunteers of the opposite sex rank them for attractiveness. But he has gone on to show that all aspects of bodily symmetry contribute, down to the lengths of corresponding fingers, and that the assessment applies to those of the same sex, as well.
The reason seems to be that perfect symmetry is hard for a developing embryo to maintain. The embryo that can maintain it obviously has good genes (and also a certain amount of luck). It is, therefore, more than just coincidence that the words “health and beauty” trip so easily off the tongue as a single phrase.
Other aspects of beauty, too, are indicators of health. Skin and hair condition, in particular, are sensitive to illness, malnutrition and so on (or, perhaps it would be better to say that people's perceptions are exquisitely tuned to detect perfection and flaws in such things). And more recent work has demonstrated another association. Contrary to the old jokes about dumb blondes, beautiful people seem to be cleverer, too.
One of the most detailed studies on the link between beauty and intelligence was done by Mark Prokosch, Ronald Yeo and Geoffrey Miller, who also work at the University of New Mexico. These three researchers correlated people's bodily symmetry with their performance on intelligence tests. Such tests come in many varieties, of course, and have a controversial background. But most workers in the field agree that there is a quality, normally referred to as “general intelligence”, or “g”, that such tests can measure objectively along with specific abilities in such areas as spatial awareness and language. Dr Miller and his colleagues found that the more a test was designed to measure g, the more the results were correlated with bodily symmetry—particularly in the bottom half of the beauty-ugliness spectrum.
Faces, too, seem to carry information on intelligence. A few years ago, two of the world's face experts, Leslie Zebrowitz, of Brandeis University in Massachusetts, and Gillian Rhodes, of the University of Western Australia, got together to review the literature and conduct some fresh experiments. They found nine past studies (seven of them conducted before the second world war, an indication of how old interest in this subject is), and subjected them to what is known as a meta-analysis.
The studies in question had all used more or less the same methodology, namely photograph people and ask them to do IQ tests, then show the photographs to other people and ask the second lot to rank the intelligence of the first lot. The results suggested that people get such judgments right—by no means all the time, but often enough to be significant. The two researchers and their colleagues then carried out their own experiment, with the added twist of dividing their subjects up by age.
Bright blondes
The results of that were rather surprising. They found that the faces of children and adults of middling years did seem to give away intelligence, while those of teenagers and the elderly did not. That is surprising because face-reading of this sort must surely be important in mate selection, and the teenage years are the time when such selection is likely to be at its most intense—though, conversely, they are also the time when evolution will be working hardest to cover up any deficiencies, and the hormone-driven changes taking place during puberty might provide the material needed to do that.
Nevertheless, the accumulating evidence suggests that physical characteristics do give clues about intelligence, that such clues are picked up by other people, and that these clues are also associated with beauty. And other work also suggests that this really does matter.
One of the leading students of beauty and success is Daniel Hamermesh of the University of Texas. Dr Hamermesh is an economist rather than a biologist, and thus brings a somewhat different perspective to the field. He has collected evidence from more than one continent that beauty really is associated with success—at least, with financial success. He has also shown that, if all else is equal, it might be a perfectly legitimate business strategy to hire the more beautiful candidate.
Just over a decade ago Dr Hamermesh presided over a series of surveys in the United States and Canada which showed that when all other things are taken into account, ugly people earn less than average incomes, while beautiful people earn more than the average. The ugliness “penalty” for men was -9% while the beauty premium was +5%. For women, perhaps surprisingly considering popular prejudices about the sexes, the effect was less: the ugliness penalty was -6% while the beauty premium was +4%.
Since then, he has gone on to measure these effects in other places. In China, ugliness is penalised more in women, but beauty is more rewarded. The figures for men in Shanghai are –25% and +3%; for women they are –31% and +10%. In Britain, ugly men do worse than ugly women (-18% as against -11%) but the beauty premium is the same for both (and only +1%).
The difference also applies within professions. Dr Hamermesh looked at the careers of members of a particular (though discreetly anonymous) American law school. He found that those rated attractive on the basis of their graduation photographs went on to earn higher salaries than their less well-favoured colleagues. Moreover, lawyers in private practice tended to be better looking than those working in government departments.
Illustration by Brett RyderEven more unfairly, Dr Hamermesh found evidence that beautiful people may bring more revenue to their employers than the less-favoured do. His study of Dutch advertising firms showed that those with the most beautiful executives had the largest size-adjusted revenues—a difference that exceeded the salary differentials of the firms in question. Finally, to add insult to injury, he found that even in his own cerebral and, one might have thought, beauty-blind profession, attractive candidates were more successful in elections for office in the American Economic Association.
That last distinction also applies to elections to public office, as was neatly demonstrated by Niclas Berggren, of the Ratio Institute in Stockholm, and his colleagues. Dr Berggren's team looked at almost 2,000 candidates in Finnish elections. They asked foreigners (mainly Americans and Swedes) to examine the candidates' campaign photographs and rank them for beauty. They then compared those rankings with the actual election results. They were able to eliminate the effects of party preference because Finland has a system of proportional representation that pits candidates of the same party against one another. Lo and behold, the more beautiful candidates, as ranked by people who knew nothing of Finland's internal politics, tended to have been the more successful—though in this case, unlike Dr Hamermesh's economic results, the effect was larger for women than for men.
If looks could kill
What these results suggest is a two-fold process, sadly reminiscent of the biblical quotation to which the title of this article refers. There is a feedback loop between biology and the social environment that gives to those who have, and takes from those who have not.
That happens because beauty is a real marker for other, underlying characteristics such as health, good genes and intelligence. It is what biologists call an unfakeable signal, like the deep roar of a big, rutting stag that smaller adolescents are physically incapable of producing. It therefore makes biological sense for people to prefer beautiful friends and lovers, since the first will make good allies, and the second, good mates.
That brings the beautiful opportunities denied to the ugly, which allows them to learn things and make connections that increase their value still further. If they are judged on that experience as well as their biological fitness, it makes them even more attractive. Even a small initial difference can thus be amplified into something that just ain't—viewed from the bottom—fair.
Given all this, it is hardly surprising that the cosmetics industry has global sales of $280 billion. But can you really fake the unfakeable signal?
Dr Hamermesh's research suggests that you can but, sadly, that it is not cost-effective—at least, not if your purpose is career advancement. Working in Shanghai, where the difference between the ugliness penalty and the beauty bonus was greatest, he looked at how women's spending on their cosmetics and clothes affected their income.
The answer was that it did, but not enough to pay for itself in a strictly financial sense. He estimates that the beauty premium generated by such primping is worth only 15% of the money expended. Of course, beauty pays off in spheres of life other than the workplace. But that, best beloved, would be the subject of a rather different article.
Mao and the art of management
Staying at the top
Dec 19th 2007
A role model, of sorts
Corbis
Books on management tend to define success in the broadest possible terms—great product, happy employees, continuous improvement, gobs of profits, crushed competitors. Even when words such as “excellence” and “success” are omitted from the title, they are often implicit. A case in point is the book which many would say defined the genre, Alfred Sloan's “My Years with General Motors”, published in 1963 when GM was still an iconic company and Sloan correctly acknowledged as the architect of the well-run, decentralised, global corporation.
But focusing on how the best produce the best has its limits. Most managers, after all, do not stitch an industrial triumph from a vast bankrupt junkyard, as Sloan did. They do not delight their customer, crush competitors and create vast wealth. They struggle. They stumble.
Where is the book for them? Who can help the under-performing, over-compensated chief executive fighting to survive intrusive journalists, independent shareholders and ambitious vice-presidents who could do a better job? Where is the role model for the manager who really needs a role model most—the one who by any objective measure of performance cannot, and should not, manage at all?
An obvious candidate is Mao. Yes, he was head of a country, not a company. But he self-consciously carried a business-like title, “chairman”, while running China from 1949 until dying in office in 1976, having jailed, killed, or psychologically crushed a succession of likely replacements and therefore created the classic business problem: a succession void. He thought of himself as, in his own words, an “indefatigable teacher” and the famous “Little Red Book” drawn from his speeches is packed with managerial advice on training, motivation and evaluation of lower-level employees (cadres); innovation (“let a hundred flowers bloom”); competition (“fear no sacrifice”); and, of course, raising the game of the complacent manager (relentless self-criticism).
Mao still has at least a symbolic hold over the Chinese economy, even though it began to blossom only after death removed his suffocating hand. His portrait is emblazoned on China's currency, on bags, shirts, pins, watches and whatever else can be sold by the innumerable entrepreneurial capitalists that he ground beneath his heel when in power. No other recent leader of a viable country (outside North Korea, in other words) is so honoured—not even ones that did a good job.
It was not a nurturing management style that won Mao this adulation. According to Jung Chang's and Jon Halliday's “Mao, the Unknown Story”, admittedly an unsympathetic portrait, he was responsible for “70m deaths, more than any other 20th-century leader”. But why stop at the 20th century? In Chinese history, only Emperor Qin Shi Huang, who started building the Great Wall (in which each brick is said to have cost a life), was competition for Mao; and since the population was much smaller then, Mao is likely to have outdone him in absolute numbers.
Botched economic policies caused most of the carnage. Deng Xiaoping, Mao's successor, turned the policies, and eventually the economy, around. Yet he does not even merit an image on a coin.
The disparity between Mao's performance and his reputation is instructive, for behind it are four key ingredients which all bad managers could profitably employ.
• A powerful, mendacious slogan
Born a modestly well-off villager, Mao lived like an emperor, carried on litters by peasants, surrounded by concubines and placated by everyone. Yet his most famous slogan was “Serve the People”. This paradox illustrates one aspect of his brilliance: his ability to justify his actions, no matter how entirely self-serving, as being done for others.
Corbis
Alfred Sloan would have disapproved...Psychologists call this “cognitive dissonance”—the ability to make a compelling, heartfelt case for one thing while doing another. Being able to pull off this sort of trick is an essential skill in many professions. It allows sub-standard chief executives to rationalise huge pay packages while their underlings get peanuts (or rice).
But Mao did not just get a stamp from a compliant board and eye-rolling from employees. He convinced his countrymen of his value. That was partly because, even if his message bore no relation to his actions, it expressed precisely and succinctly what he should have been doing. Consider the truth and clarity of “serve the people” compared with the average company's mission statement, packed with a muddle of words and thoughts tied to stakeholders and CSR, that employees can barely read, let alone memorise.
Deng Xiaoping's slogan, which he used in his campaign to revive the economy, had similar virtues. “Truth from facts” is a sound-bite that Sloan would have loved and every manager should cherish, but you won't find it chiselled on a Chinese wall. It doesn't have the hypocritical idealism of Mao's version—nor was it pushed so hard.
• Ruthless media manipulation
Mao knew not just how to make a point but also how to get it out. Through posters, the “Little Red Book” and re-education circles, his message was constantly reinforced. “Where the broom does not reach”, he said, “the dust will not vanish of itself.” This process of self-aggrandisement is often dismissed as a “personality cult”, but is hard to distinguish from the modern business practice of building brand value.
Yet within China economic growth was pathetic and living conditions were wretched. So why did a vast list of Western political, military and academic leaders accept the value of Mao's brand at his own estimation? Even Stalin, no guileless observer, believed in and, to his later regret, protected Mao. The brand-building lesson is that a clear, utopian message, hammered home relentlessly, can obscure inconvenient facts. Great salesmen are born knowing this. Executives whose strategies are not delivering need to learn it.
Chief executives are not in a position to crush the media as Mao did. Nevertheless, his handling of them offers some lessons. He talked only to sycophantic journalists and his appeal in the West came mainly from hagiographies written by reporters whose careers were built on the access they had to him.
The law constrains the modern chief executive's ability to imitate Mao's PR strategy. Publicly listed companies have to publish information, rather than hand it out selectively. But many, within bounds, emulate Mao's media management; others, determined to control information about them, are delisting. Burrow beneath laudatory headlines on business and political leaders, and it becomes clear that the strategy works.
• Sacrifice of friends and colleagues
“Who are our friends? Who are our enemies? This is a question of first importance,” Mao wrote. Sloan agreed. He worried that favouritism would come at the expense of the single most valuable component of management: the objective evaluation of performance.
Corbis
...but Mao's HR policies meant Happy RevolutionariesMao had a different goal: he did not want people too close to him, and therefore to power; so being Mao's friend often proved more dangerous than being his enemy. One purge followed another. Promotions and demotions were zealously monitored. Bundles of incentives were given and withdrawn. Some demotions turned out well. Deng Xiaoping's exile in a tractor factory may have helped him understand business, and thus rebuild the economy, but that was an unintended benefit.
This approach makes sense. Close colleagues may want your job, and relationships with them may distract you. Mao's abandonment of friends and even wives and children seemed to be based on a calculation of which investments were worth maintaining and which should be regarded as sunk costs. Past favours were not returned. According to Ms Chang and Mr Halliday, a doctor who saved his life was left to die on a prison floor after being falsely accused of disloyalty. Mao let it happen: he had other doctors by then.
Enemies, conversely, can be useful. Mao often blamed battlefield losses on rivals who were made to suffer for these defeats. The names of modern victims of this tactic will be visible on the list of people sacked at an investment bank after a rough quarter; the practitioners are their superiors, or those who have taken their jobs.
• Activity substituting for achievement
Mao was quite willing to avoid tedious or uncomfortable meetings, particularly when he was likely to be criticised. But maybe that helped him avoid getting bogged down. From the Anti-Rightist Movement of the late 1950s to the Great Leap Forward, a failed agricultural and industrial experiment in the early 1960s, to the Cultural Revolution in the late 1960s, Mao was never short of a plan.
Under Mao, China didn't drift, it careened. The propellant came from the top. Policies were poor, execution dreadful and leadership misdirected, but each initiative seemed to create a centripetal force, as everyone looked toward Beijing to see how to march forward (or avoid being trampled). The business equivalent of this is restructuring, the broader the better. Perhaps for the struggling executive, this is the single most important lesson: if you can't do anything right, do a lot. The more you have going on, the longer it will take for its disastrous consequences to become clear. And think very big: for all his flaws, Mao was inspiring.
In the long run, of course, the facts will find you out. But who cares? We all know what we are in the long run.
Dec 19th 2007
A role model, of sorts
Corbis
Books on management tend to define success in the broadest possible terms—great product, happy employees, continuous improvement, gobs of profits, crushed competitors. Even when words such as “excellence” and “success” are omitted from the title, they are often implicit. A case in point is the book which many would say defined the genre, Alfred Sloan's “My Years with General Motors”, published in 1963 when GM was still an iconic company and Sloan correctly acknowledged as the architect of the well-run, decentralised, global corporation.
But focusing on how the best produce the best has its limits. Most managers, after all, do not stitch an industrial triumph from a vast bankrupt junkyard, as Sloan did. They do not delight their customer, crush competitors and create vast wealth. They struggle. They stumble.
Where is the book for them? Who can help the under-performing, over-compensated chief executive fighting to survive intrusive journalists, independent shareholders and ambitious vice-presidents who could do a better job? Where is the role model for the manager who really needs a role model most—the one who by any objective measure of performance cannot, and should not, manage at all?
An obvious candidate is Mao. Yes, he was head of a country, not a company. But he self-consciously carried a business-like title, “chairman”, while running China from 1949 until dying in office in 1976, having jailed, killed, or psychologically crushed a succession of likely replacements and therefore created the classic business problem: a succession void. He thought of himself as, in his own words, an “indefatigable teacher” and the famous “Little Red Book” drawn from his speeches is packed with managerial advice on training, motivation and evaluation of lower-level employees (cadres); innovation (“let a hundred flowers bloom”); competition (“fear no sacrifice”); and, of course, raising the game of the complacent manager (relentless self-criticism).
Mao still has at least a symbolic hold over the Chinese economy, even though it began to blossom only after death removed his suffocating hand. His portrait is emblazoned on China's currency, on bags, shirts, pins, watches and whatever else can be sold by the innumerable entrepreneurial capitalists that he ground beneath his heel when in power. No other recent leader of a viable country (outside North Korea, in other words) is so honoured—not even ones that did a good job.
It was not a nurturing management style that won Mao this adulation. According to Jung Chang's and Jon Halliday's “Mao, the Unknown Story”, admittedly an unsympathetic portrait, he was responsible for “70m deaths, more than any other 20th-century leader”. But why stop at the 20th century? In Chinese history, only Emperor Qin Shi Huang, who started building the Great Wall (in which each brick is said to have cost a life), was competition for Mao; and since the population was much smaller then, Mao is likely to have outdone him in absolute numbers.
Botched economic policies caused most of the carnage. Deng Xiaoping, Mao's successor, turned the policies, and eventually the economy, around. Yet he does not even merit an image on a coin.
The disparity between Mao's performance and his reputation is instructive, for behind it are four key ingredients which all bad managers could profitably employ.
• A powerful, mendacious slogan
Born a modestly well-off villager, Mao lived like an emperor, carried on litters by peasants, surrounded by concubines and placated by everyone. Yet his most famous slogan was “Serve the People”. This paradox illustrates one aspect of his brilliance: his ability to justify his actions, no matter how entirely self-serving, as being done for others.
Corbis
Alfred Sloan would have disapproved...Psychologists call this “cognitive dissonance”—the ability to make a compelling, heartfelt case for one thing while doing another. Being able to pull off this sort of trick is an essential skill in many professions. It allows sub-standard chief executives to rationalise huge pay packages while their underlings get peanuts (or rice).
But Mao did not just get a stamp from a compliant board and eye-rolling from employees. He convinced his countrymen of his value. That was partly because, even if his message bore no relation to his actions, it expressed precisely and succinctly what he should have been doing. Consider the truth and clarity of “serve the people” compared with the average company's mission statement, packed with a muddle of words and thoughts tied to stakeholders and CSR, that employees can barely read, let alone memorise.
Deng Xiaoping's slogan, which he used in his campaign to revive the economy, had similar virtues. “Truth from facts” is a sound-bite that Sloan would have loved and every manager should cherish, but you won't find it chiselled on a Chinese wall. It doesn't have the hypocritical idealism of Mao's version—nor was it pushed so hard.
• Ruthless media manipulation
Mao knew not just how to make a point but also how to get it out. Through posters, the “Little Red Book” and re-education circles, his message was constantly reinforced. “Where the broom does not reach”, he said, “the dust will not vanish of itself.” This process of self-aggrandisement is often dismissed as a “personality cult”, but is hard to distinguish from the modern business practice of building brand value.
Yet within China economic growth was pathetic and living conditions were wretched. So why did a vast list of Western political, military and academic leaders accept the value of Mao's brand at his own estimation? Even Stalin, no guileless observer, believed in and, to his later regret, protected Mao. The brand-building lesson is that a clear, utopian message, hammered home relentlessly, can obscure inconvenient facts. Great salesmen are born knowing this. Executives whose strategies are not delivering need to learn it.
Chief executives are not in a position to crush the media as Mao did. Nevertheless, his handling of them offers some lessons. He talked only to sycophantic journalists and his appeal in the West came mainly from hagiographies written by reporters whose careers were built on the access they had to him.
The law constrains the modern chief executive's ability to imitate Mao's PR strategy. Publicly listed companies have to publish information, rather than hand it out selectively. But many, within bounds, emulate Mao's media management; others, determined to control information about them, are delisting. Burrow beneath laudatory headlines on business and political leaders, and it becomes clear that the strategy works.
• Sacrifice of friends and colleagues
“Who are our friends? Who are our enemies? This is a question of first importance,” Mao wrote. Sloan agreed. He worried that favouritism would come at the expense of the single most valuable component of management: the objective evaluation of performance.
Corbis
...but Mao's HR policies meant Happy RevolutionariesMao had a different goal: he did not want people too close to him, and therefore to power; so being Mao's friend often proved more dangerous than being his enemy. One purge followed another. Promotions and demotions were zealously monitored. Bundles of incentives were given and withdrawn. Some demotions turned out well. Deng Xiaoping's exile in a tractor factory may have helped him understand business, and thus rebuild the economy, but that was an unintended benefit.
This approach makes sense. Close colleagues may want your job, and relationships with them may distract you. Mao's abandonment of friends and even wives and children seemed to be based on a calculation of which investments were worth maintaining and which should be regarded as sunk costs. Past favours were not returned. According to Ms Chang and Mr Halliday, a doctor who saved his life was left to die on a prison floor after being falsely accused of disloyalty. Mao let it happen: he had other doctors by then.
Enemies, conversely, can be useful. Mao often blamed battlefield losses on rivals who were made to suffer for these defeats. The names of modern victims of this tactic will be visible on the list of people sacked at an investment bank after a rough quarter; the practitioners are their superiors, or those who have taken their jobs.
• Activity substituting for achievement
Mao was quite willing to avoid tedious or uncomfortable meetings, particularly when he was likely to be criticised. But maybe that helped him avoid getting bogged down. From the Anti-Rightist Movement of the late 1950s to the Great Leap Forward, a failed agricultural and industrial experiment in the early 1960s, to the Cultural Revolution in the late 1960s, Mao was never short of a plan.
Under Mao, China didn't drift, it careened. The propellant came from the top. Policies were poor, execution dreadful and leadership misdirected, but each initiative seemed to create a centripetal force, as everyone looked toward Beijing to see how to march forward (or avoid being trampled). The business equivalent of this is restructuring, the broader the better. Perhaps for the struggling executive, this is the single most important lesson: if you can't do anything right, do a lot. The more you have going on, the longer it will take for its disastrous consequences to become clear. And think very big: for all his flaws, Mao was inspiring.
In the long run, of course, the facts will find you out. But who cares? We all know what we are in the long run.
Nifty ways to leave your lover
By Mrs Moneypenny
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Breaking up is never much fun, even though these days there are lots of different ways to do it. Take Cost Centre #1, for instance. A few weeks ago he finished with his girlfriend. He did at least do this by telephone, rather than by e-mail or (worse still) text message. But having put down the telephone, he went straight on to the internet, and altered her official status on his Facebook page.
Apparently this relayed the news automatically to everyone linked to his page as a “friend” – some 300 people.
I have to say it makes me glad my teenage dating took place in the pre-internet years. It is bad enough to be handed your P45, but far worse to have 300 people notified of the fact within 30 minutes.
Anyway, CC#1 is now single, or, as his Facebook page says, “not currently in a relationship”.
The Lovely Lucinda is also not currently in a relationship. This is not because she is working so hard for me, what with having to pay my congestion charge and recover my laptop from taxis. It is not even because she is spending so many evenings on her course in bridal flower arranging. In fact I am not sure why LL is single, since she is very beautiful, gracious and kind, and delightful company. While she has been working for me, she has had at least two reasonably serious relationships, but neither of them has come to much.
Like many, if not most, of my single girlfriends, she has also tried internet dating with mixed success. Recently, irritated with her lack of progress in finding someone to marry, she took a week off work and registered with a very upmarket dating agency. Did it need a week? LL tells me that it was a very long and detailed process, with lots of form-filling and an extensive interview.
To me that sounds more like a VAT inspection than a process likely to end in matrimony, but what do I know?
I married a man I met through being randomly seated next to him on a flight – which is as close to computer dating as I was likely to get.
LL also had to write a thumping great cheque to the dating agency. This, I was told, represented a serious investment. Sacrifices would have to be made.
But then LL hit on a novel way of paying for the dating agency. A few weeks earlier, she had bumped into her first husband at some party or other. Yes, LL had a starter marriage. I have never inquired into the causes of its demise but it seems to have been reasonably amicable, although she had not seen the chap for five years. He, though, clearly remains very fond of LL, asking after her wellbeing and wondering whether there was anything he could do for her.
Put on the spot, she couldn't think of anything. (That's the difference between us. Should any ex-boyfriend ask me that question, I would think instantly of a list of things starting with a grouse moor and ending with a Hermes scarf.) But after thinking about it for a few days, LL rang her old flame and told him that, yes, there was something he could do. Would he please pay the bill for the dating agency?
This doesn't seem unreasonable to me. As her first husband isn't going to be the person to father LL's children and take care of her for the next 40 years or so, he could at least help to find someone else to do the job. Indeed, such a practice could even become a new kind of outplacement. Every divorcée should be offered this service – along with anyone in a long-term relationship when it comes to an end.
I can see great potential in this. LL inadvertently may have hit on a very practical solution to (a) the guilt of the departing party and (b) the problem of being put on the secondary market and having to find someone new.
Incidentally, her former husband agreed to her request immediately, took her out to dinner last week and handed over the cash. I shall keep you posted.
So perhaps CC#1 should have offered to pay for his girlfriend to join an internet dating service by way of helping her with her outplacement? Maybe. Though telling 300 Facebook friends that he has broken up with her amounts to pretty much the same thing.
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Breaking up is never much fun, even though these days there are lots of different ways to do it. Take Cost Centre #1, for instance. A few weeks ago he finished with his girlfriend. He did at least do this by telephone, rather than by e-mail or (worse still) text message. But having put down the telephone, he went straight on to the internet, and altered her official status on his Facebook page.
Apparently this relayed the news automatically to everyone linked to his page as a “friend” – some 300 people.
I have to say it makes me glad my teenage dating took place in the pre-internet years. It is bad enough to be handed your P45, but far worse to have 300 people notified of the fact within 30 minutes.
Anyway, CC#1 is now single, or, as his Facebook page says, “not currently in a relationship”.
The Lovely Lucinda is also not currently in a relationship. This is not because she is working so hard for me, what with having to pay my congestion charge and recover my laptop from taxis. It is not even because she is spending so many evenings on her course in bridal flower arranging. In fact I am not sure why LL is single, since she is very beautiful, gracious and kind, and delightful company. While she has been working for me, she has had at least two reasonably serious relationships, but neither of them has come to much.
Like many, if not most, of my single girlfriends, she has also tried internet dating with mixed success. Recently, irritated with her lack of progress in finding someone to marry, she took a week off work and registered with a very upmarket dating agency. Did it need a week? LL tells me that it was a very long and detailed process, with lots of form-filling and an extensive interview.
To me that sounds more like a VAT inspection than a process likely to end in matrimony, but what do I know?
I married a man I met through being randomly seated next to him on a flight – which is as close to computer dating as I was likely to get.
LL also had to write a thumping great cheque to the dating agency. This, I was told, represented a serious investment. Sacrifices would have to be made.
But then LL hit on a novel way of paying for the dating agency. A few weeks earlier, she had bumped into her first husband at some party or other. Yes, LL had a starter marriage. I have never inquired into the causes of its demise but it seems to have been reasonably amicable, although she had not seen the chap for five years. He, though, clearly remains very fond of LL, asking after her wellbeing and wondering whether there was anything he could do for her.
Put on the spot, she couldn't think of anything. (That's the difference between us. Should any ex-boyfriend ask me that question, I would think instantly of a list of things starting with a grouse moor and ending with a Hermes scarf.) But after thinking about it for a few days, LL rang her old flame and told him that, yes, there was something he could do. Would he please pay the bill for the dating agency?
This doesn't seem unreasonable to me. As her first husband isn't going to be the person to father LL's children and take care of her for the next 40 years or so, he could at least help to find someone else to do the job. Indeed, such a practice could even become a new kind of outplacement. Every divorcée should be offered this service – along with anyone in a long-term relationship when it comes to an end.
I can see great potential in this. LL inadvertently may have hit on a very practical solution to (a) the guilt of the departing party and (b) the problem of being put on the secondary market and having to find someone new.
Incidentally, her former husband agreed to her request immediately, took her out to dinner last week and handed over the cash. I shall keep you posted.
So perhaps CC#1 should have offered to pay for his girlfriend to join an internet dating service by way of helping her with her outplacement? Maybe. Though telling 300 Facebook friends that he has broken up with her amounts to pretty much the same thing.
在英文字幕里欣赏昆曲
英国《金融时报》中文网特约撰稿人郑海阳
2007年12月11日 星期二
我的老外朋友John，三年前过境香港时正逢白先勇先生重新策划制作的昆曲青春版《牡丹亭》上演，惊鸿一瞥让他念念不忘，今年上半年上海昆剧院推出《长生殿》时他又不巧因故回国，这次终于抓住了重演的机会，早早来到这里，等待一睹这出中国唐朝悲剧版 “温莎公爵夫妇”的浪漫歌剧——为了给他解释这个剧目，我动用了英国版“江山美人”来作比。
虽然对于三年前的白先勇版《牡丹亭》有所耳闻，但我向来偏执地以为这大概是老人们对于故乡的怀旧情绪作祟而已，而《长生殿》——讲的又是人们烂熟于胸的故事，而全本10个多小时，令人怀疑它会如钱钟书所说“像走了电的电池，读者的心灵电线也似乎跟它们接触，却不能使它们发出旧日的光焰。”
但是令人吃惊的是，观众居然把兰心大戏院挤了个爆满，老年戏迷虽多，年轻人也不在少数，还不乏像John这样的“国际友人”。进入噱头十足的“宫门”，有面部镂空的唐明皇和杨贵妃的立像相迎，不少兴致勃勃金发碧眼的老外凑上前去留下“冠带倩影”，这个有趣的细节令人想起，在200多年前，昆曲也是风靡中国、“家家收拾起、户户不提防”的全民娱乐呢。
显然，就如同当年白先勇版《牡丹亭》的青春气息一扫昆曲垂垂老矣的陈旧印象，《长生殿》无论是在唱腔、舞美、服装方面也更加现代化：布景虽然仍然简练，但通过舞台的升降、位移，令宫殿——荷塘，朝堂——酒肆，乡野——战场的变化显得更为直观；唱腔基本忠于洪升听原作，按曲牌联套体式，唱来悠远迷茫古意盎然，但是演员在念白和表情方面却又十分生动；尤其在“舞盘”一折，杨贵妃在一个翡翠大盘上跳起《霓裳羽衣舞》时更是极尽写实，她不仅换上了全新设计的、完全不同于“水袖”的短袖舞衣，而且连脚下所踏的“翠盘”也是由琉璃工房所制，在特殊的灯光映射下，可谓是美仑美央。
白先勇认为，昆曲是最能表现中国传统美学抒情、写意、象征、诗化的一种艺术……而别的表演艺术呢？歌剧有歌无舞，芭蕾有舞无歌，终究有点缺憾。昆曲却能以最简单朴素的舞台，表现出最繁复的情感意象来。而对于这种意象，尽管John是个老外，却依然十分“入戏”－－他盯着舞台的时间，要远远多过字幕——也多过我看字幕的时间。
当然，本剧的翻译杨宪益和戴乃迭可是中国的翻译大家，而剧中的一些对白和唱段，在他们译来既典雅，又晓畅，对于John来说，自然毫不费力，如“金屋藏娇”被译为“Hide sweetheart in gilded chamber”，丝竹被译为“strings and flutes”，可谓“信达雅”俱全。
反而是我，土生土长的中国人，在这时感到眼睛有点忙不过来了，念白的时候还容易一些，特别是到了大段词藻华丽的唱腔时，那些十分古雅的词汇，更是令人挠头：如“椒房”、“翠华摇摇”、“翠翘金雀玉搔头”，相信随便找一个大学文科生，也未必能够准确地说出它的意思吧。
所以大部分的时候，我只能舍弃了华美的表演，去寻找杨、戴两位先生的妙笔生花，哦原来“椒房”是 “scent chamber”，意既熏香的房间，“翠华摇摇”——“The emperor's green-canopied carriage”则是明皇所乘的翠绿色顶盖的轿子，“翠翘金雀玉搔头”——“jade hair-pin with the gold sparrow and green feathers.”有翠绿色羽毛和金制鸟雀的玉簪！
《长生殿》，不，是昆曲，这个300多岁的珠围翠绕、典雅优美的清代美人，居然在向现代的观众投来眼神时，还需要透过英文的纱幕，这是不是和John在英国看用古英语表演的莎剧呢时异曲同工呢？
2007年12月11日 星期二
我的老外朋友John，三年前过境香港时正逢白先勇先生重新策划制作的昆曲青春版《牡丹亭》上演，惊鸿一瞥让他念念不忘，今年上半年上海昆剧院推出《长生殿》时他又不巧因故回国，这次终于抓住了重演的机会，早早来到这里，等待一睹这出中国唐朝悲剧版 “温莎公爵夫妇”的浪漫歌剧——为了给他解释这个剧目，我动用了英国版“江山美人”来作比。
虽然对于三年前的白先勇版《牡丹亭》有所耳闻，但我向来偏执地以为这大概是老人们对于故乡的怀旧情绪作祟而已，而《长生殿》——讲的又是人们烂熟于胸的故事，而全本10个多小时，令人怀疑它会如钱钟书所说“像走了电的电池，读者的心灵电线也似乎跟它们接触，却不能使它们发出旧日的光焰。”
但是令人吃惊的是，观众居然把兰心大戏院挤了个爆满，老年戏迷虽多，年轻人也不在少数，还不乏像John这样的“国际友人”。进入噱头十足的“宫门”，有面部镂空的唐明皇和杨贵妃的立像相迎，不少兴致勃勃金发碧眼的老外凑上前去留下“冠带倩影”，这个有趣的细节令人想起，在200多年前，昆曲也是风靡中国、“家家收拾起、户户不提防”的全民娱乐呢。
显然，就如同当年白先勇版《牡丹亭》的青春气息一扫昆曲垂垂老矣的陈旧印象，《长生殿》无论是在唱腔、舞美、服装方面也更加现代化：布景虽然仍然简练，但通过舞台的升降、位移，令宫殿——荷塘，朝堂——酒肆，乡野——战场的变化显得更为直观；唱腔基本忠于洪升听原作，按曲牌联套体式，唱来悠远迷茫古意盎然，但是演员在念白和表情方面却又十分生动；尤其在“舞盘”一折，杨贵妃在一个翡翠大盘上跳起《霓裳羽衣舞》时更是极尽写实，她不仅换上了全新设计的、完全不同于“水袖”的短袖舞衣，而且连脚下所踏的“翠盘”也是由琉璃工房所制，在特殊的灯光映射下，可谓是美仑美央。
白先勇认为，昆曲是最能表现中国传统美学抒情、写意、象征、诗化的一种艺术……而别的表演艺术呢？歌剧有歌无舞，芭蕾有舞无歌，终究有点缺憾。昆曲却能以最简单朴素的舞台，表现出最繁复的情感意象来。而对于这种意象，尽管John是个老外，却依然十分“入戏”－－他盯着舞台的时间，要远远多过字幕——也多过我看字幕的时间。
当然，本剧的翻译杨宪益和戴乃迭可是中国的翻译大家，而剧中的一些对白和唱段，在他们译来既典雅，又晓畅，对于John来说，自然毫不费力，如“金屋藏娇”被译为“Hide sweetheart in gilded chamber”，丝竹被译为“strings and flutes”，可谓“信达雅”俱全。
反而是我，土生土长的中国人，在这时感到眼睛有点忙不过来了，念白的时候还容易一些，特别是到了大段词藻华丽的唱腔时，那些十分古雅的词汇，更是令人挠头：如“椒房”、“翠华摇摇”、“翠翘金雀玉搔头”，相信随便找一个大学文科生，也未必能够准确地说出它的意思吧。
所以大部分的时候，我只能舍弃了华美的表演，去寻找杨、戴两位先生的妙笔生花，哦原来“椒房”是 “scent chamber”，意既熏香的房间，“翠华摇摇”——“The emperor's green-canopied carriage”则是明皇所乘的翠绿色顶盖的轿子，“翠翘金雀玉搔头”——“jade hair-pin with the gold sparrow and green feathers.”有翠绿色羽毛和金制鸟雀的玉簪！
《长生殿》，不，是昆曲，这个300多岁的珠围翠绕、典雅优美的清代美人，居然在向现代的观众投来眼神时，还需要透过英文的纱幕，这是不是和John在英国看用古英语表演的莎剧呢时异曲同工呢？
2007年12月9日星期日
德国首富成功赚钱创业三大秘诀
在《福布斯》杂志公布的全球富豪排行榜中，德国零售商阿尔布莱希特兄弟以230亿和181亿美元的资产分列第3和第14名，并蝉联德国的首富。那么他们是如何苦心经营，由位于穷乡僻壤的食品店主演变为海内外赫赫有名的零售巨商的呢？ 中国金融大典
历经磨难
上世纪20年代初，卡尔和泰欧·阿尔布莱希特相继出生于德国埃森市郊的小镇舍内贝克。兄弟俩自幼家境贫寒，作为鲁尔煤矿工人的父亲早年因尘肺病失去了工作，母亲只好在市郊矿工生活区开办了一家食品小店，以补贴家用。生活的窘迫使得兄弟俩十几岁便结束了学业，早早走上谋生的道路。卡尔在一家美食店找到了工作，泰欧则帮助母亲打理店铺。家庭生活刚有起色，但不久二战的爆发又中断了他们的平静生活，一直持续到1945年战争结束。当时国内市场百业凋零，兄弟俩四处求职，却屡屡碰壁。适逢不久母亲辞世，于是他们接管了母亲留下的那间窄小的食品店。由于资金拮据，商店开张时简陋的店面也没有修缮，只能出售一些饮料、罐头等本小利薄的商品，维持惨淡经营。他们不断谋求生意的扩展，但一直苦无良策。
峰回路转
一次偶然的相遇成了卡尔和泰欧人生中重要的转折点。一天，当他们路过当地一家商店时，发现进出购物的人流络绎不绝。出于好奇他们浏览了店门前的促销广告，其做法是：购物时附赠优惠券，年底凭优惠券可按原累计购物金额的3％免费领取等值商品。原来人们是冲着年底的赠物而来，兄弟俩由此得到了启发。但他们并没有盲目模仿，而是觉察到一些不可预期的情况：如果年底物价上扬，顾客手中的优惠券就会贬值。进一步说如果无力兑现，优惠券何异于空头支票。实际上他们一开始即考虑到信用问题。他们经过深思熟虑决定推出更为稳妥的即时让利的对策，宣布凡店内出售的商品在当地最低价格的基础上再减价3％。并承诺如达不到上述价格水平，可向商店索回差价，并提供奖励。从此，小店内外人头攒动，每天的营业额翻了几番，他们的创业取得了成功。
随着60年代以来全球零售业的整合，兄弟俩预感到新型折扣零售的前景不可限量，进而发现了自己的使命。1962年他们在多特蒙德开办了第一家名为阿尔迪(ALDI)的折扣商店，它取自阿尔布莱希特(Albrecht)和折扣(Discount)的前两个字母，体现出他们投身折扣零售业的理想。此后，阿尔迪坚持服务大众的经营原则，加上提供的商品质优价廉，不仅低薪阶层情有独钟，也颇受部分中产阶层的青睐。据统计，目前德国75％的居民经常在阿尔迪采购。随着阿尔迪声名鹊起，其连锁店不仅在德国雨后春笋般地涌现出来，在欧美及大洋洲一些国家也形成了绵密的销售网络。 诚实守信
恪守诚信的原则一直被阿尔布莱希特兄弟奉为圭臬，这主要体现在阿尔迪同顾客及供货商公平无私的关系上。首先是保证商品宁缺勿滥。阿尔迪选择供货商的标准是既看价格，更重质量。凡厂商的供货阿尔迪均定期提交给德国质量监督权威机构“商品检验基金会”检测，除得分良好的予以认可外，其余即使得分合格也不会得到定单。新产品接受定货后，首先要在部分商店进行至少3个月的试销，得不到顾客赏识，同样会被除名。其次是质量控制十分严格。商店平日注重对商品的抽样检查，经常让品尝师蒙上眼睛品尝出售的食品，发现问题立即对厂商提出警告。质量纰漏严重的，阿尔迪则解除收购合同并索赔损失，因而供货商不敢在质量上有丝毫懈怠。同时，为了企业的形象，阿尔迪连外观稍差的商品也不拿出摆放，像顾客挑剩的水果、蔬菜、面包等，每天打烊后均作为垃圾倒掉。至于顾客对所购的商品不满意，不用提出任何解释，阿尔迪均予以退款或退货。再者是守诺取信。阿尔迪曾提出，在原来价格水平上，只要成本下降，就继续对顾客让利销售。每当厂商降低供货价格时，他们不等新货上架，马上更换原有商品标价。宁可承受存货高价低卖的损失，也要兑现让利于民的承诺。对于大多依赖阿尔迪生存的供货商，阿尔迪同样以诚相待。除了对质量稍显“苛刻”外，没有任何额外的要求和追加协议，而且从不拖欠货款。因而，阿尔迪与消费者和供货商关系是建立在相互信任的基础上的。这样，在阿尔迪购物没人会考虑质量和价格问题，与阿尔迪交易同样不用担心违约。久而久之，公众对阿尔迪的普遍印象自然是诚实公道、可信度高。
阿尔迪创立以来，始终坚持了简单化的经营原则。这种简单化由来已久。战后一个时期，国内商店普遍供应短缺，经济复苏后，当其他零售商纷纷扩大花色品种以迎合市场需求时，阿尔迪并没有随波逐流。因为多年来品种匮乏并未影响阿尔迪赚钱，况且扩大品种意味着面对日益增多的厂商，管理复杂程度的加大是不言而喻的。
为此，他们的对策是从调整品种结构入手，精选出最畅销的商品，并力求以业内最低的价格出售。迄今阿尔迪依然仅保留600-700种商品，而单品的年均采购额却超过4000万欧元, 由此获得了十分低廉的进价，进而使零售价格极具竞争力，弥补了品种单一的缺陷。
由于奉行简化品种模式显现成效，阿尔迪进而推行了管理的分权化。他们认为，集中管理只能产生没完没了的联络，连篇累牍的数据，应接不暇的请示，滋长独裁管理的倾向。为此，他们将企业划分为阿尔迪北部和南部集团，并在全国划分为66个经营地区，每个地区再下辖60余个商店。公司赋予地区经理进货、配送、财务、人事等直接管理权，并推行员工的自我负责制。这种简单管理的策略既调动了基层经营单位和个人的积极性，又减轻了集团决策层的管理难度，分散了集权经营风险。
在其他方面，阿尔迪同样主张避繁就简，放弃他们认为是烦琐多余的东西：企业不设监控部门，取消年度计划，不聘咨询顾问，不做公关工作，不要ISO9000认证，不搞差别定价和复杂的核算与统计，没有顾客意见征询，不挂广告招贴等等。按阿尔迪前经理迪特·布兰德斯归纳，在管理上类似的放弃内容就有21项，其结果无疑促进了阿尔迪团队管理效率的提高。 节俭务实
除了取舍得当，阿尔迪的简单化原则还包括简朴节制。卡尔兄弟崇尚节俭是远近闻名的，这可追溯到在鲁尔开店的时代。据说在当时生意十分火爆的情况下，他们仍宁可让店员每天晚上将该冷藏的食品搬到地下室，也舍不得添置冷柜。这种近于吝啬的俭省后来成为人们茶余饭后的资谈而广为流传。不管怎样，这种人生的理念保持下去，并成为其特有企业文化的组成部分。
时至今日，尽管家族早已富甲一方，兄弟俩依然躬行节俭，居住在埃森郊区显得寒酸的简易单层楼房，过着普通的平民生活。在经营上他们同样戒奢宁俭，具有高度成本意识：公司总部仅有两幢装修简单的五层办公楼房，没有豪华的公司汽车；德国邮政编码升位多年后，包括泰欧在内的管理人员仍沿用涂改了邮编的旧信纸，办公纸张则常常用完正面再用反面；开店避开昂贵的繁华地段，各家分店毫无装饰，远看像一座座仓库，而市区的门店甚至没有停车场；卖场面积十分紧凑，仅有500~800平方米；商品大多按出厂的纸箱和托盘就地陈列销售，节省空间和理货时间；商品不贴价签，商店大多不使用条码扫描机，仍使用老式的收款机；平均每家商店仅雇用3.3人，员工往往身兼多职；很少在媒体刊登广告，而是通过传单发布商品信息等等。这些节制的举措为阿尔迪降低成本，实施以廉制胜战略奠定了基础。
多谋善断
阿尔布莱希特兄弟事业上成功还在于他们的计深虑远。在发展自己零售网络的同时，他们十分关注业内外零售商的动态，揣摩对手的强项和弱点，以便及时调整自己的市场策略。从折扣零售来看，他们采取了全球采购、厂家大批订货、买断和控制厂商货源、与厂商建立产销联盟、委托厂商代工、自产自销等策略，砍掉了原有的中间环节，推出最具价格竞争力的商品，对业内同行造成相当的压力。从相关业态来看，他们很早就观察到位于市郊的仓储商店，其价位较低，但交通不便，有的还要收取会费或批量采购。于是，他们力图将阿尔迪改良成浓缩型仓储超市，不仅把家庭日用品比重提高到20％以上，而且商店分布更便于居民就近零星采购。随着实力的增长，阿尔迪的扩张范围已超出居民社区，其分店常常与大型卖场比肩而立，不断分流对手的客源。同时，他们还瞄准时机，主动跨业竞争，先是针对百货业，每周更换15~20种百货服装商品进行促销，消费者闻讯便蜂拥而至。近年来又针对专营店陆续推出了家用电器和办公用品，如DVD、打印机等，并在德国首开食品超市销售电脑的先河。很难想象，在短短10年间阿尔迪已悄无声息地成为德国第六大纺织品销售商和最大的电脑专营商。
多年来，阿尔迪能够得心应手地实施创新经营战略，主要在于它能博采众长，善于将不同业态的优势兼收并蓄。同时不断利用低成本的结构整合与扩张，使自己成为以食品为主，兼跨多种行业的复合型零售企业。进而利用竞争对手的市场空隙，不断蚕食其市场份额，取得了市场竞争的主动权。
深藏若虚
当阿尔迪逐步成为全球关注的角色时，卡尔兄弟依然处事低调，从不张扬。不出席公开场合社交活动，回避媒体采访，他们最近的照片也是17年前刊登的。由于阿尔迪属于非上市公司，而且兄弟俩既对企业情况讳莫如深，又对媒体的评论和猜测处之漠然，以至多年来没有多少人真正了解他们的经历，对阿尔迪的境况更是雾里看花，没人知道阿尔迪赚了多少钱。因而在公众眼里事关阿尔迪的一切都平添了一层神秘色彩。好在前不久德国官方出台了一项企业公开义务的规定，人们才可以根据媒体的报道，或多或少了解一些阿尔迪现状，结果可能出人意料：目前阿尔迪在全球已拥有6800多家分店，其中国内分店达到4000家，其余2800多家分布在欧美和大洋洲的11个国家。2003年阿尔迪实现销售额370亿欧元，利润超过11亿欧元。据此，它的企业价值被权威机构评估为400亿欧元，相当于戴姆勒·克莱斯勒公司的市值。人们由此方略识“贫民店”的庐山真面目，步入不惑之年的阿尔迪也才逐渐显露出德国折扣零售业霸主的形象。
历经磨难
上世纪20年代初，卡尔和泰欧·阿尔布莱希特相继出生于德国埃森市郊的小镇舍内贝克。兄弟俩自幼家境贫寒，作为鲁尔煤矿工人的父亲早年因尘肺病失去了工作，母亲只好在市郊矿工生活区开办了一家食品小店，以补贴家用。生活的窘迫使得兄弟俩十几岁便结束了学业，早早走上谋生的道路。卡尔在一家美食店找到了工作，泰欧则帮助母亲打理店铺。家庭生活刚有起色，但不久二战的爆发又中断了他们的平静生活，一直持续到1945年战争结束。当时国内市场百业凋零，兄弟俩四处求职，却屡屡碰壁。适逢不久母亲辞世，于是他们接管了母亲留下的那间窄小的食品店。由于资金拮据，商店开张时简陋的店面也没有修缮，只能出售一些饮料、罐头等本小利薄的商品，维持惨淡经营。他们不断谋求生意的扩展，但一直苦无良策。
峰回路转
一次偶然的相遇成了卡尔和泰欧人生中重要的转折点。一天，当他们路过当地一家商店时，发现进出购物的人流络绎不绝。出于好奇他们浏览了店门前的促销广告，其做法是：购物时附赠优惠券，年底凭优惠券可按原累计购物金额的3％免费领取等值商品。原来人们是冲着年底的赠物而来，兄弟俩由此得到了启发。但他们并没有盲目模仿，而是觉察到一些不可预期的情况：如果年底物价上扬，顾客手中的优惠券就会贬值。进一步说如果无力兑现，优惠券何异于空头支票。实际上他们一开始即考虑到信用问题。他们经过深思熟虑决定推出更为稳妥的即时让利的对策，宣布凡店内出售的商品在当地最低价格的基础上再减价3％。并承诺如达不到上述价格水平，可向商店索回差价，并提供奖励。从此，小店内外人头攒动，每天的营业额翻了几番，他们的创业取得了成功。
随着60年代以来全球零售业的整合，兄弟俩预感到新型折扣零售的前景不可限量，进而发现了自己的使命。1962年他们在多特蒙德开办了第一家名为阿尔迪(ALDI)的折扣商店，它取自阿尔布莱希特(Albrecht)和折扣(Discount)的前两个字母，体现出他们投身折扣零售业的理想。此后，阿尔迪坚持服务大众的经营原则，加上提供的商品质优价廉，不仅低薪阶层情有独钟，也颇受部分中产阶层的青睐。据统计，目前德国75％的居民经常在阿尔迪采购。随着阿尔迪声名鹊起，其连锁店不仅在德国雨后春笋般地涌现出来，在欧美及大洋洲一些国家也形成了绵密的销售网络。 诚实守信
恪守诚信的原则一直被阿尔布莱希特兄弟奉为圭臬，这主要体现在阿尔迪同顾客及供货商公平无私的关系上。首先是保证商品宁缺勿滥。阿尔迪选择供货商的标准是既看价格，更重质量。凡厂商的供货阿尔迪均定期提交给德国质量监督权威机构“商品检验基金会”检测，除得分良好的予以认可外，其余即使得分合格也不会得到定单。新产品接受定货后，首先要在部分商店进行至少3个月的试销，得不到顾客赏识，同样会被除名。其次是质量控制十分严格。商店平日注重对商品的抽样检查，经常让品尝师蒙上眼睛品尝出售的食品，发现问题立即对厂商提出警告。质量纰漏严重的，阿尔迪则解除收购合同并索赔损失，因而供货商不敢在质量上有丝毫懈怠。同时，为了企业的形象，阿尔迪连外观稍差的商品也不拿出摆放，像顾客挑剩的水果、蔬菜、面包等，每天打烊后均作为垃圾倒掉。至于顾客对所购的商品不满意，不用提出任何解释，阿尔迪均予以退款或退货。再者是守诺取信。阿尔迪曾提出，在原来价格水平上，只要成本下降，就继续对顾客让利销售。每当厂商降低供货价格时，他们不等新货上架，马上更换原有商品标价。宁可承受存货高价低卖的损失，也要兑现让利于民的承诺。对于大多依赖阿尔迪生存的供货商，阿尔迪同样以诚相待。除了对质量稍显“苛刻”外，没有任何额外的要求和追加协议，而且从不拖欠货款。因而，阿尔迪与消费者和供货商关系是建立在相互信任的基础上的。这样，在阿尔迪购物没人会考虑质量和价格问题，与阿尔迪交易同样不用担心违约。久而久之，公众对阿尔迪的普遍印象自然是诚实公道、可信度高。
阿尔迪创立以来，始终坚持了简单化的经营原则。这种简单化由来已久。战后一个时期，国内商店普遍供应短缺，经济复苏后，当其他零售商纷纷扩大花色品种以迎合市场需求时，阿尔迪并没有随波逐流。因为多年来品种匮乏并未影响阿尔迪赚钱，况且扩大品种意味着面对日益增多的厂商，管理复杂程度的加大是不言而喻的。
为此，他们的对策是从调整品种结构入手，精选出最畅销的商品，并力求以业内最低的价格出售。迄今阿尔迪依然仅保留600-700种商品，而单品的年均采购额却超过4000万欧元, 由此获得了十分低廉的进价，进而使零售价格极具竞争力，弥补了品种单一的缺陷。
由于奉行简化品种模式显现成效，阿尔迪进而推行了管理的分权化。他们认为，集中管理只能产生没完没了的联络，连篇累牍的数据，应接不暇的请示，滋长独裁管理的倾向。为此，他们将企业划分为阿尔迪北部和南部集团，并在全国划分为66个经营地区，每个地区再下辖60余个商店。公司赋予地区经理进货、配送、财务、人事等直接管理权，并推行员工的自我负责制。这种简单管理的策略既调动了基层经营单位和个人的积极性，又减轻了集团决策层的管理难度，分散了集权经营风险。
在其他方面，阿尔迪同样主张避繁就简，放弃他们认为是烦琐多余的东西：企业不设监控部门，取消年度计划，不聘咨询顾问，不做公关工作，不要ISO9000认证，不搞差别定价和复杂的核算与统计，没有顾客意见征询，不挂广告招贴等等。按阿尔迪前经理迪特·布兰德斯归纳，在管理上类似的放弃内容就有21项，其结果无疑促进了阿尔迪团队管理效率的提高。 节俭务实
除了取舍得当，阿尔迪的简单化原则还包括简朴节制。卡尔兄弟崇尚节俭是远近闻名的，这可追溯到在鲁尔开店的时代。据说在当时生意十分火爆的情况下，他们仍宁可让店员每天晚上将该冷藏的食品搬到地下室，也舍不得添置冷柜。这种近于吝啬的俭省后来成为人们茶余饭后的资谈而广为流传。不管怎样，这种人生的理念保持下去，并成为其特有企业文化的组成部分。
时至今日，尽管家族早已富甲一方，兄弟俩依然躬行节俭，居住在埃森郊区显得寒酸的简易单层楼房，过着普通的平民生活。在经营上他们同样戒奢宁俭，具有高度成本意识：公司总部仅有两幢装修简单的五层办公楼房，没有豪华的公司汽车；德国邮政编码升位多年后，包括泰欧在内的管理人员仍沿用涂改了邮编的旧信纸，办公纸张则常常用完正面再用反面；开店避开昂贵的繁华地段，各家分店毫无装饰，远看像一座座仓库，而市区的门店甚至没有停车场；卖场面积十分紧凑，仅有500~800平方米；商品大多按出厂的纸箱和托盘就地陈列销售，节省空间和理货时间；商品不贴价签，商店大多不使用条码扫描机，仍使用老式的收款机；平均每家商店仅雇用3.3人，员工往往身兼多职；很少在媒体刊登广告，而是通过传单发布商品信息等等。这些节制的举措为阿尔迪降低成本，实施以廉制胜战略奠定了基础。
多谋善断
阿尔布莱希特兄弟事业上成功还在于他们的计深虑远。在发展自己零售网络的同时，他们十分关注业内外零售商的动态，揣摩对手的强项和弱点，以便及时调整自己的市场策略。从折扣零售来看，他们采取了全球采购、厂家大批订货、买断和控制厂商货源、与厂商建立产销联盟、委托厂商代工、自产自销等策略，砍掉了原有的中间环节，推出最具价格竞争力的商品，对业内同行造成相当的压力。从相关业态来看，他们很早就观察到位于市郊的仓储商店，其价位较低，但交通不便，有的还要收取会费或批量采购。于是，他们力图将阿尔迪改良成浓缩型仓储超市，不仅把家庭日用品比重提高到20％以上，而且商店分布更便于居民就近零星采购。随着实力的增长，阿尔迪的扩张范围已超出居民社区，其分店常常与大型卖场比肩而立，不断分流对手的客源。同时，他们还瞄准时机，主动跨业竞争，先是针对百货业，每周更换15~20种百货服装商品进行促销，消费者闻讯便蜂拥而至。近年来又针对专营店陆续推出了家用电器和办公用品，如DVD、打印机等，并在德国首开食品超市销售电脑的先河。很难想象，在短短10年间阿尔迪已悄无声息地成为德国第六大纺织品销售商和最大的电脑专营商。
多年来，阿尔迪能够得心应手地实施创新经营战略，主要在于它能博采众长，善于将不同业态的优势兼收并蓄。同时不断利用低成本的结构整合与扩张，使自己成为以食品为主，兼跨多种行业的复合型零售企业。进而利用竞争对手的市场空隙，不断蚕食其市场份额，取得了市场竞争的主动权。
深藏若虚
当阿尔迪逐步成为全球关注的角色时，卡尔兄弟依然处事低调，从不张扬。不出席公开场合社交活动，回避媒体采访，他们最近的照片也是17年前刊登的。由于阿尔迪属于非上市公司，而且兄弟俩既对企业情况讳莫如深，又对媒体的评论和猜测处之漠然，以至多年来没有多少人真正了解他们的经历，对阿尔迪的境况更是雾里看花，没人知道阿尔迪赚了多少钱。因而在公众眼里事关阿尔迪的一切都平添了一层神秘色彩。好在前不久德国官方出台了一项企业公开义务的规定，人们才可以根据媒体的报道，或多或少了解一些阿尔迪现状，结果可能出人意料：目前阿尔迪在全球已拥有6800多家分店，其中国内分店达到4000家，其余2800多家分布在欧美和大洋洲的11个国家。2003年阿尔迪实现销售额370亿欧元，利润超过11亿欧元。据此，它的企业价值被权威机构评估为400亿欧元，相当于戴姆勒·克莱斯勒公司的市值。人们由此方略识“贫民店”的庐山真面目，步入不惑之年的阿尔迪也才逐渐显露出德国折扣零售业霸主的形象。
中国公民赴不丹旅行及申请不丹签证须知
一、中国公民赴不丹旅行及申请不丹签证须知
（一）不丹签证只有公务（official）签证和旅游（tourist）签证。公务签证发给持外交、公务护照因公访问不丹的外国政府官员；旅游签证发给因私赴不丹的人员。
（二）中国与不丹没有外交关系，不丹在华没有使、领馆。中国政府官员因公访问不丹及申办公务签证事宜，可通过不丹驻印度、孟加拉国、泰国、科威特使馆或不丹驻联合国（纽约、日内瓦）代表团联系和安排。因私去不丹访问或旅行的中国公民须通过不丹政府授权的不丹国内的旅行社及其海外合作旅行社代为办理签证。
（三）申请旅游签证，需填写签证申请表一张，交护照照片两张和签证费20美元。签证申请表可在第六条所述旅行社的网站上下载，并将填写好的签证申请表作为电子信件的附件发送给代办签证的旅行社。签证申请表上的姓名必须与护照上的姓名完全一致，否则即
使签证获准也不能入境。签证申请由旅行社送交不丹政府内政部审批，审批时间约需一周。签证申请获准后，由旅行社代订机票、旅馆和安排旅行日程。机票上的姓名也必须与护照上的姓名完全一致，否则不能登机。旅游签证均为落地签证，在入境口岸发给。入境时再补交照片和签证费。如有需要，签证可在不丹境内申请延期，最长可延长至6个月，签证延期费为510努（约合100人民币）。
（四）入境口岸。距不丹首都廷布55公里的帕罗国际机场是进出不丹的唯一航空港，不丹唯一的国家航空公司Druk Air开通了至新德里、加尔各答、达卡、仰光、加德满都和曼谷的航线。此外，不丹南部与印度接壤的边境小镇Phuentsoling有通往印度的陆路口岸，游客亦可由此进出不丹。
（五）旅行所需费用。为了防止外国游人对不丹自然环境、文化和当地人民生活方式带来负面影响，不丹政府实施低客流高效益的旅游政策，并通过制定最低消费水平的办法来控制游客的人数。不丹政府规定，只有政府授权的旅行社和旅馆才能接待外国游客。外国游客
则必须由授权的旅行社代办签证、机票和安排食宿及旅行日程并接受旅行社提供的导游。目前，在不丹旅行的最低消费水平为每人每天200美元。
（六）不丹授权旅行社名单及电子信箱\网址
Bhutan Himalaya Tours＆Travel email：tshomo@druknet.bt
Bhutan Kaze Tours＆Treks email：wings@druknet.bt
Bhutan Travel＆Tourism email：btt@druknet.bt
Discovery Bhutan email：discovery@druknet.bt
Dragon Trekkers＆Tours email：dragon@druknet.bt
Eagle Tours＆Treks email：eagle@druknet.bt
Exotic Destination Tours＆Treks email：exotic@druknet.bt
Geo-Cultural Tours＆Treks email：chhophelt@yahoo.com
Gems Tours＆Travels email：gem@druknet.bt
Himalayan Kingdom Tours email：hktours@druknet.bt
Jeroma Tours＆Travels www.bhutanguide.com
Karmic Tours＆Treks www.karmictours.com
Snow White Treks＆Tours www.snowwhitetours.com.bt
Sophun Tours＆Treks www.sophuntoursbhutan.com
White Lake Adventures www.Jachungtravel.com
二、不丹医疗条件
自20世纪80年代以来，不丹政府在改善本国医疗卫生状况方面做了大量工作。不丹现有医疗机构659个，其中医院27座（含5所麻风病医院），疾病中心19个，地方诊所145个。全国已基本消除了碘缺乏症，但疟疾、腹泻和肺病较流行，伤寒、肝炎、白喉、脑炎也时有发生。
在不丹，医疗药品都以草药为主，这些草药以藏医学和印度古传中药为主，所以去不丹旅游的人宜携带个人常用药品，并随身携带泻药、胃药、消炎药、感冒药等药品。除了上述所说的药品，建议备用晕车药、万金油、风油精、创口贴、维他命C、复合维他命、眼药水、隐形眼镜清洁药水、卫生棉等。
不丹平均海拔在4000米左右，为了减少高山症的发生，可自行按摩，以减少高原反应。
为了防止意外，不丹旅游局建议国外游客在出国前申请各自国家的旅游保险，不丹目前尚无此类保险服务。
廷布大医院（THIMPHU GENERAL HOSPITAL）位于首都廷布，是不丹目前较好的医院，由政府资助，提供免费治疗，但由于条件有限，该医院对复杂病无法治疗。廷布市药店(CITY HPARMACY）和常青药店（EVERGREEN MEDICAL SHOP）是两家较大的药店。
三、不丹主要参考网站
不丹国家网http://www.kingdomofbutan.com
不丹旅游局http://www.btb.com.bt
（一）不丹签证只有公务（official）签证和旅游（tourist）签证。公务签证发给持外交、公务护照因公访问不丹的外国政府官员；旅游签证发给因私赴不丹的人员。
（二）中国与不丹没有外交关系，不丹在华没有使、领馆。中国政府官员因公访问不丹及申办公务签证事宜，可通过不丹驻印度、孟加拉国、泰国、科威特使馆或不丹驻联合国（纽约、日内瓦）代表团联系和安排。因私去不丹访问或旅行的中国公民须通过不丹政府授权的不丹国内的旅行社及其海外合作旅行社代为办理签证。
（三）申请旅游签证，需填写签证申请表一张，交护照照片两张和签证费20美元。签证申请表可在第六条所述旅行社的网站上下载，并将填写好的签证申请表作为电子信件的附件发送给代办签证的旅行社。签证申请表上的姓名必须与护照上的姓名完全一致，否则即
使签证获准也不能入境。签证申请由旅行社送交不丹政府内政部审批，审批时间约需一周。签证申请获准后，由旅行社代订机票、旅馆和安排旅行日程。机票上的姓名也必须与护照上的姓名完全一致，否则不能登机。旅游签证均为落地签证，在入境口岸发给。入境时再补交照片和签证费。如有需要，签证可在不丹境内申请延期，最长可延长至6个月，签证延期费为510努（约合100人民币）。
（四）入境口岸。距不丹首都廷布55公里的帕罗国际机场是进出不丹的唯一航空港，不丹唯一的国家航空公司Druk Air开通了至新德里、加尔各答、达卡、仰光、加德满都和曼谷的航线。此外，不丹南部与印度接壤的边境小镇Phuentsoling有通往印度的陆路口岸，游客亦可由此进出不丹。
（五）旅行所需费用。为了防止外国游人对不丹自然环境、文化和当地人民生活方式带来负面影响，不丹政府实施低客流高效益的旅游政策，并通过制定最低消费水平的办法来控制游客的人数。不丹政府规定，只有政府授权的旅行社和旅馆才能接待外国游客。外国游客
则必须由授权的旅行社代办签证、机票和安排食宿及旅行日程并接受旅行社提供的导游。目前，在不丹旅行的最低消费水平为每人每天200美元。
（六）不丹授权旅行社名单及电子信箱\网址
Bhutan Himalaya Tours＆Travel email：tshomo@druknet.bt
Bhutan Kaze Tours＆Treks email：wings@druknet.bt
Bhutan Travel＆Tourism email：btt@druknet.bt
Discovery Bhutan email：discovery@druknet.bt
Dragon Trekkers＆Tours email：dragon@druknet.bt
Eagle Tours＆Treks email：eagle@druknet.bt
Exotic Destination Tours＆Treks email：exotic@druknet.bt
Geo-Cultural Tours＆Treks email：chhophelt@yahoo.com
Gems Tours＆Travels email：gem@druknet.bt
Himalayan Kingdom Tours email：hktours@druknet.bt
Jeroma Tours＆Travels www.bhutanguide.com
Karmic Tours＆Treks www.karmictours.com
Snow White Treks＆Tours www.snowwhitetours.com.bt
Sophun Tours＆Treks www.sophuntoursbhutan.com
White Lake Adventures www.Jachungtravel.com
二、不丹医疗条件
自20世纪80年代以来，不丹政府在改善本国医疗卫生状况方面做了大量工作。不丹现有医疗机构659个，其中医院27座（含5所麻风病医院），疾病中心19个，地方诊所145个。全国已基本消除了碘缺乏症，但疟疾、腹泻和肺病较流行，伤寒、肝炎、白喉、脑炎也时有发生。
在不丹，医疗药品都以草药为主，这些草药以藏医学和印度古传中药为主，所以去不丹旅游的人宜携带个人常用药品，并随身携带泻药、胃药、消炎药、感冒药等药品。除了上述所说的药品，建议备用晕车药、万金油、风油精、创口贴、维他命C、复合维他命、眼药水、隐形眼镜清洁药水、卫生棉等。
不丹平均海拔在4000米左右，为了减少高山症的发生，可自行按摩，以减少高原反应。
为了防止意外，不丹旅游局建议国外游客在出国前申请各自国家的旅游保险，不丹目前尚无此类保险服务。
廷布大医院（THIMPHU GENERAL HOSPITAL）位于首都廷布，是不丹目前较好的医院，由政府资助，提供免费治疗，但由于条件有限，该医院对复杂病无法治疗。廷布市药店(CITY HPARMACY）和常青药店（EVERGREEN MEDICAL SHOP）是两家较大的药店。
三、不丹主要参考网站
不丹国家网http://www.kingdomofbutan.com
不丹旅游局http://www.btb.com.bt
2007年11月25日星期日
意大利归来话贫富
英国《金融时报》中文网专栏作家魏城
2007年11月26日 星期一
一
最近，我乘坐大巴，从英国出发，经法国、比利时、卢森堡、德国、瑞士、奥地利等国，去意大利玩了一周。
尽管有人抱怨大巴旅游是“上车睡觉，停车撒尿，下车拍照，回到家里什么也不知道”，但不知为什么，我却特别喜欢在欧洲境内乘坐大巴旅游。我喜欢在短短的时间内一下子穿越好几个国家，品味一种完全不同于在中国坐车很久仍出不了省境的跨国境体验；我喜欢在别的乘客瞌睡的时候睁大眼睛，欣赏车窗外的景色，认真分辨表面看来极为相似的欧洲各国在地貌、植被、建筑、人文等方面的细微差别……
让我感受最深的差别，是从奥地利进入意大利时看到那条泾渭分明的分界线，恰如多年前我从长江入海口坐船，当轮船缓缓驶入东海时，我所看到的那条清晰的黄蓝分界线，如果你不在现场，你就根本不敢相信：那条分界线居然那么清晰、分明！
奥意边境地处阿尔卑斯山脉，奥地利一端的民宅多为木制结构，但做工精细，装饰华丽，形状各异，粉刷一新，窗外都悬挂着五颜六色的花卉，错落地分布在山脚、山腰、甚至山顶，远远望去，极为好看；意大利一端的山，也同样是阿尔卑斯山，地貌、植被基本相同，但民宅却大为不同：房子多为砖石结构，方方正正，没有装饰，有的房子瓦片灰暗，墙皮剥落，即使那些粉刷过的房子，风蚀水浸的痕迹也依稀可见。
意大利一周游之后，我们又乘大巴从意大利返回奥地利，幸亏车上意大利籍导游的解说，我才知道：确切地说，这条分界线并非位于奥意边境之间，而是位于意大利境内的德语居民和意大利语居民之间。意大利北部也居住着一些讲德语的奥地利裔人，所以，这条分界线其实始于意大利的德语自治区。
后来，听一位乘坐大巴从瑞士进入意大利旅游的朋友说，他也看到过这条分界线，但分界线不在瑞意边境之间，而是位于瑞士境内的德语区和意大利语区之间。
我不知道，这条分界线究竟意味着什么、代表了什么或说明了什么，我不是这方面的专家，所以不敢轻易下什么结论。
二
我也是在这次大巴游的路途上最终读完了《国富国穷》这本书的。
我很早就在FT的图书馆里借出了这本书，但因为工作太忙，没有整块儿时间可供我读书，所以，这本书我断断续续地读了很久，总是读不完，一直到这次大巴旅游，我痛下决心：一定要在路途上把这本书突击读完，哪怕牺牲沿途看风光的乐趣！
谁知读书乐趣还是竞争不过观光欲望。旅途中，我仍然是看景多，读书少。最后读完这本书，还是靠晚上在酒店的挑灯夜战。
顾名思义，《国富国穷》这本书是分析各国之间的贫富差别的，是美国哈佛大学历史学和经济学教授兰德斯（David S. Landes）的晚年力作。虽然没有确切的证据，但我猜想，前一段时间红遍神州大地的中国系列电视片《大国崛起》，其编导人员大概也看过《国富国穷》这本书，因为这本书的某些结论与《大国崛起》的某些观点颇为相似。
《国富国穷》的魅力就在于：它不枯燥，兰德斯特别善于讲故事，在历史事实的描述过程中，再穿插一些用散文笔触总结的经验教训；它像历史一样丰富，像历史一样充满了意料之外的转折。兰德斯更爱称自己是历史学家，而非经济学家。不像经济学家谈“国富国穷”时常爱构筑自己的一套理论体系或理论框架，兰德斯这本书似乎没有什么理论，他只是在谈历史，在讲故事，他从18、19世纪之交著名犹太裔金融家罗斯柴尔德的暴死讲起，一直讲到某些世界性大帝国财富方面的兴衰变化，最后再以列强聚财赛跑路途中迄今为止赢家输家的大盘点而结束。
兰德斯似乎不太在乎什么理论，但他讲的“大国兴衰”故事中又充满了理性的“闪电”、论点的“雷鸣”，作为读者的我，开卷时饶有兴味，掩卷后不免深思。
为什么有的国家富？为什么有的国家穷？为什么有的国家先穷后富？为什么有的国家先富后穷？为什么有的国家一直富强不起来？为什么历史上很少有哪个国家一直保持着首富首强的地位？我想，这些问题可能一直困扰着人类最有智慧的大脑，但即使是这些最伟大的哲人们，也一直未能给我们普通人一个令人信服的答案。
在《国富国穷》一书的扉页上，兰德斯也引用了英国经济学家马尔萨斯1817年写给另一位经济学家李嘉图信中的一句话：“……各国富裕和贫穷的原因——政治经济学中所有探寻的大题目。”
我非哲人，尽管我也对这个大题目有着普通人的兴趣，但我毕竟不是专家。《国富国穷》这本书至少给像我这样的门外汉补了以下几条“意料之外、情理之中”的常识：
（1）并非白人主导的国家都先进、都富裕，某些欧洲国家或者欧裔移民主导的拉美国家不仅远远落后于日本，甚至也比不上“四小龙”等某些东亚经济体；
（2）欧洲各国贫富的原因并非完全取决于是否试验过计划经济；
（3）现在某些相对贫穷的西欧国家，过去曾经在财富积累方面一直领先；
（4）由“首富”地位跌至相对贫穷国家队伍的欧洲国家，包括意大利、西班牙和葡萄牙；
（5）由“首富”地位跌至仍属富裕的第二梯队国家队伍的欧洲国家，包括荷兰和英国……
三
我们这辆大巴上的意大利籍导游名叫Giorgio，据说这是意大利男人最常用的名字之一，相当于英语的“乔治”（George），但意大利语的发音听上去有些像“洲洲”。他大概只有二十多岁，但留了一脸络腮胡子，性格外向，口若悬河，一路上，他滔滔不绝，不断介绍意大利的风土人情、抱怨意大利南部人好吃懒做（他自己是意大利北方人）、开罗马教皇的玩笑、骂意大利政坛的各色政客……
在“洲洲”的言谈举止之中，我感到，他似乎特别迷恋英国的文化，特别欣赏德语民族的勤奋和效率，他经常拿意大利人的懒散、不讲卫生、不遵守秩序等毛病，与英国人、德国人、奥地利人或者瑞士的德语居民相比，然后发出某种恨铁不成钢的叹息……
车上的英国乘客大概出于礼貌，无论是公开讨论，还是私下聊天，都很少说意大利人的坏话，但有一次晚饭用餐时，我听到一些英国乘客在闲谈中，聊起了英国铁路系统与德、奥、瑞士等国德语区铁路系统的对比，我能真切地感到他们口气中对德语民族办事效率的那种毫不掩饰的敬佩。
恰巧也是在意大利境内的旅途上，我读到了《国富国穷》一书中有关欧洲拉丁语国家与日耳曼语国家对比的章节。按照兰德斯的说法，曾经在财富赛跑中一度遥遥领先的意大利、西班牙、葡萄牙等拉丁语国家，之所以后来落后于北边的日耳曼语邻邦，原因很多，但最主要的是文化和宗教因素：天主教历史上对异端邪说的严厉排斥、对异教徒和标新立异的思想家、科学家的残酷迫害，扼杀了这些奉天主教为国教的拉丁语国家的创新精神，而作为新教国家的荷兰、英国、德国，却对异端邪说相对宽容。
此外，兰德斯还多次提及韦伯所说的“新教伦理”在塑造新教国家资本主义精神和企业家素质过程中的独特作用。
在车窗外匆匆掠过的如梦如幻的意大利海滨美景的陪衬下，我断断续续地读到了兰德斯的如下文字：
“意大利曾经一度领先，特别在意大利北部的波河河谷地区和热内亚周围地区。威尼斯和佛罗伦萨，一度是繁荣的工业中心和商业中心，后来却变成了纯粹的旅游胜地……意大利的统一（1870年）几乎没有改变早期劳动力和财富的分界线。北部混合了农业和工业，南部仍然是一片荒芜之地……南部最大的出口产品是移民：移居新世界特别是美国和阿根廷的移民以及二战后迁往意大利北部的移民。即使是意大利北部居民，也把他们的子女送往国外，通常是送到阿尔卑斯山以北的更为富裕的工业区……”
但我不知道，兰德斯对意大利先富后穷原因的分析，与我在德语区和意大利语区所观察到的那条民宅分界线，到底有着什么联系。
四
在意大利玩了一周之后，我们的大巴返回了奥地利。
抵达奥地利时，天色已经完全黑了下来。我们来到阿尔卑斯山区群山环抱的一个不知名的小山村，在山村客栈住了下来。
吃完晚饭，我顺着山村的主要街道信步走去。走到大概算是村中心的地方，我看到一家餐馆，招牌上写着“上海饭店”。我揉了揉眼睛：没错，是“上海饭店”，而且还是中文招牌！
在这个荒山野岭的奥地利山村，居然也有中餐馆！我走进餐馆，长着典型东方人小圆脸和丹凤眼的老板娘正在招呼几个喝得烂醉的白人酒鬼，见了我，她一愣：仿佛我是她开店以来见到的第一位华裔客人。半晌她才缓过劲来，用中文向我问好：“你是中国人吧？等一会儿，我让我先生出来招待你！”
不久，她先生出来了，给我倒了一杯啤酒。我们聊了起来。他们夫妻来自中国温州，十多年前从中国偷渡出来，投奔在奥地利首都维也纳开餐馆的温州亲戚。“我们温州人特别抱团儿，在中国走南闯北合伙做小生意，在国外更是互相帮助。维也纳中餐馆太多，我们夫妻就想着到一个完全没有任何中国人的小地方开餐馆，当时我们没有奥地利身份，银行贷不到款，所以我们开餐馆的钱都是亲戚朋友给凑的。”他告诉我说。
临别时，我掏出几个欧元硬币，却被他一把拦住：“你是我们到这个小山村十年来见到的第一个华人，高兴还来不及呢，怎么能让你掏钱……”
《国富国穷》一书也花了很大的篇幅，谈到曾经在财富竞争“长跑”中领先的中国，为什么后来远远落后于欧美列强。
谈到中国历史上第一次“对外开放”，人们常常会提到英国人的鸦片和枪炮，但曾以研究钟表历史而名闻遐迩的兰德斯，却提到了葡萄牙人的钟表。“机械钟表是打开中国大门的钥匙。”——这是兰德斯谈及中国的名句之一，他讲述的这段西方钟表“中国奇遇记”的故事，形象地说明了中国由盛转衰、由富转穷的深层原因。
当葡萄牙人在16世纪把西方的机械钟表带到中国时，中国的皇帝和大臣都被这种记录时间的精巧的机械装置迷住了，但他们却对钟表背后的西方科技嗤之以鼻。兰德斯指出，即使当时中国在对待西学问题上“最为开放、最为好奇”的清朝皇帝康熙，也认为西方数学的原理都来自中国的《易经》、西方科学的方法最初都根源于中国。“所以，不想放弃西式钟表的中国人，却把它们矮化为玩具或者不具有什么功能的地位象征……”兰德斯如此引申开来：“文化上的傲慢和政治上的专制，使中国成为一个不情愿的改善者和一位糟糕的学生。”
兰德斯后来在接受记者采访时，还从反面寻找了中西差距拉大的原因：“欧洲人从一开始就是杰出的学生，他们从来就毫不犹豫地借鉴和模仿他人，并试图相应地改善自己。他们从中国学到了火药制造术、印刷术和其它一些重大的技术。”
也许因为《国富国穷》一书出版于大约10年前，当时中国经济上崛起之势尚不太清晰，所以，兰德斯未在此书中提及中国人如今对待外界先进事物的态度变化。不过，在那次采访中，兰德斯也谈到了当代中国的变化：“中国人现在清醒地意识到，他们将不得不向西方学习。他们可能会说，‘是的，我们过去也有过向西方学习的想法，我们当时没有把这个想法付诸实施，但是我们现在这么做了。’他们确实有个自尊心的问题，但他们清楚地知道，在20世纪和21世纪的世界中，他们别无选择，只有努力走在前面。”
与某些过分强调“国民性”的学者不同，兰德斯并未把中国近代的落后与华人的“劣根性”联系起来，相反，兰德斯通过对同为华人社会的香港、台湾和新加坡经济起飞的分析，特别赞扬了华人聪明、勤奋、节俭等优良素质：“他们（指华人）拥有使韦伯的新教伦理都相形见绌的工作伦理，而且他们把这种工作伦理一代一代地传了下去。”
兰德斯还讲了一个他亲身经历的故事：
他第一次到访香港时是一个晚上，他从酒店出来，经过一个开设在石阶平台上的照相机小店，他随便向店内看了一眼，店主立即问他要买什么。原本并不想买什么的兰德斯顺口问了一种特殊的照相机镜头，店主脸色沉了下来：原来，他店里已经没有这种镜头的存货了。但他的眼光随后又一亮：“如果你晚一些再来，我就能搞到这种镜头。”兰德斯说：“我现在去吃晚饭，至少要到午夜12点才能回来。”店主回答说：“不用担心，你回来时，我在这里准备好镜头等你。”
午夜12点多，兰德斯返回酒店，突然想起了这件事，但疲困的他试图劝慰自己：“别去那家小店了，纯属浪费时间。”随后，他又感到有些内疚，所以还是去了那家小店：小店仍然开着，店主守着那只特殊的镜头，等着他的到来。
讲完这个故事，兰德斯反问道：有谁能够在美国或欧洲为我找到一个愿意这么做的店主？
（作者电子邮件地址：weicheng_ft@yahoo.co.uk，其新书《所谓中产》最近由南方日报出版社出版。）
《远观中国》
2007年11月26日 星期一
一
最近，我乘坐大巴，从英国出发，经法国、比利时、卢森堡、德国、瑞士、奥地利等国，去意大利玩了一周。
尽管有人抱怨大巴旅游是“上车睡觉，停车撒尿，下车拍照，回到家里什么也不知道”，但不知为什么，我却特别喜欢在欧洲境内乘坐大巴旅游。我喜欢在短短的时间内一下子穿越好几个国家，品味一种完全不同于在中国坐车很久仍出不了省境的跨国境体验；我喜欢在别的乘客瞌睡的时候睁大眼睛，欣赏车窗外的景色，认真分辨表面看来极为相似的欧洲各国在地貌、植被、建筑、人文等方面的细微差别……
让我感受最深的差别，是从奥地利进入意大利时看到那条泾渭分明的分界线，恰如多年前我从长江入海口坐船，当轮船缓缓驶入东海时，我所看到的那条清晰的黄蓝分界线，如果你不在现场，你就根本不敢相信：那条分界线居然那么清晰、分明！
奥意边境地处阿尔卑斯山脉，奥地利一端的民宅多为木制结构，但做工精细，装饰华丽，形状各异，粉刷一新，窗外都悬挂着五颜六色的花卉，错落地分布在山脚、山腰、甚至山顶，远远望去，极为好看；意大利一端的山，也同样是阿尔卑斯山，地貌、植被基本相同，但民宅却大为不同：房子多为砖石结构，方方正正，没有装饰，有的房子瓦片灰暗，墙皮剥落，即使那些粉刷过的房子，风蚀水浸的痕迹也依稀可见。
意大利一周游之后，我们又乘大巴从意大利返回奥地利，幸亏车上意大利籍导游的解说，我才知道：确切地说，这条分界线并非位于奥意边境之间，而是位于意大利境内的德语居民和意大利语居民之间。意大利北部也居住着一些讲德语的奥地利裔人，所以，这条分界线其实始于意大利的德语自治区。
后来，听一位乘坐大巴从瑞士进入意大利旅游的朋友说，他也看到过这条分界线，但分界线不在瑞意边境之间，而是位于瑞士境内的德语区和意大利语区之间。
我不知道，这条分界线究竟意味着什么、代表了什么或说明了什么，我不是这方面的专家，所以不敢轻易下什么结论。
二
我也是在这次大巴游的路途上最终读完了《国富国穷》这本书的。
我很早就在FT的图书馆里借出了这本书，但因为工作太忙，没有整块儿时间可供我读书，所以，这本书我断断续续地读了很久，总是读不完，一直到这次大巴旅游，我痛下决心：一定要在路途上把这本书突击读完，哪怕牺牲沿途看风光的乐趣！
谁知读书乐趣还是竞争不过观光欲望。旅途中，我仍然是看景多，读书少。最后读完这本书，还是靠晚上在酒店的挑灯夜战。
顾名思义，《国富国穷》这本书是分析各国之间的贫富差别的，是美国哈佛大学历史学和经济学教授兰德斯（David S. Landes）的晚年力作。虽然没有确切的证据，但我猜想，前一段时间红遍神州大地的中国系列电视片《大国崛起》，其编导人员大概也看过《国富国穷》这本书，因为这本书的某些结论与《大国崛起》的某些观点颇为相似。
《国富国穷》的魅力就在于：它不枯燥，兰德斯特别善于讲故事，在历史事实的描述过程中，再穿插一些用散文笔触总结的经验教训；它像历史一样丰富，像历史一样充满了意料之外的转折。兰德斯更爱称自己是历史学家，而非经济学家。不像经济学家谈“国富国穷”时常爱构筑自己的一套理论体系或理论框架，兰德斯这本书似乎没有什么理论，他只是在谈历史，在讲故事，他从18、19世纪之交著名犹太裔金融家罗斯柴尔德的暴死讲起，一直讲到某些世界性大帝国财富方面的兴衰变化，最后再以列强聚财赛跑路途中迄今为止赢家输家的大盘点而结束。
兰德斯似乎不太在乎什么理论，但他讲的“大国兴衰”故事中又充满了理性的“闪电”、论点的“雷鸣”，作为读者的我，开卷时饶有兴味，掩卷后不免深思。
为什么有的国家富？为什么有的国家穷？为什么有的国家先穷后富？为什么有的国家先富后穷？为什么有的国家一直富强不起来？为什么历史上很少有哪个国家一直保持着首富首强的地位？我想，这些问题可能一直困扰着人类最有智慧的大脑，但即使是这些最伟大的哲人们，也一直未能给我们普通人一个令人信服的答案。
在《国富国穷》一书的扉页上，兰德斯也引用了英国经济学家马尔萨斯1817年写给另一位经济学家李嘉图信中的一句话：“……各国富裕和贫穷的原因——政治经济学中所有探寻的大题目。”
我非哲人，尽管我也对这个大题目有着普通人的兴趣，但我毕竟不是专家。《国富国穷》这本书至少给像我这样的门外汉补了以下几条“意料之外、情理之中”的常识：
（1）并非白人主导的国家都先进、都富裕，某些欧洲国家或者欧裔移民主导的拉美国家不仅远远落后于日本，甚至也比不上“四小龙”等某些东亚经济体；
（2）欧洲各国贫富的原因并非完全取决于是否试验过计划经济；
（3）现在某些相对贫穷的西欧国家，过去曾经在财富积累方面一直领先；
（4）由“首富”地位跌至相对贫穷国家队伍的欧洲国家，包括意大利、西班牙和葡萄牙；
（5）由“首富”地位跌至仍属富裕的第二梯队国家队伍的欧洲国家，包括荷兰和英国……
三
我们这辆大巴上的意大利籍导游名叫Giorgio，据说这是意大利男人最常用的名字之一，相当于英语的“乔治”（George），但意大利语的发音听上去有些像“洲洲”。他大概只有二十多岁，但留了一脸络腮胡子，性格外向，口若悬河，一路上，他滔滔不绝，不断介绍意大利的风土人情、抱怨意大利南部人好吃懒做（他自己是意大利北方人）、开罗马教皇的玩笑、骂意大利政坛的各色政客……
在“洲洲”的言谈举止之中，我感到，他似乎特别迷恋英国的文化，特别欣赏德语民族的勤奋和效率，他经常拿意大利人的懒散、不讲卫生、不遵守秩序等毛病，与英国人、德国人、奥地利人或者瑞士的德语居民相比，然后发出某种恨铁不成钢的叹息……
车上的英国乘客大概出于礼貌，无论是公开讨论，还是私下聊天，都很少说意大利人的坏话，但有一次晚饭用餐时，我听到一些英国乘客在闲谈中，聊起了英国铁路系统与德、奥、瑞士等国德语区铁路系统的对比，我能真切地感到他们口气中对德语民族办事效率的那种毫不掩饰的敬佩。
恰巧也是在意大利境内的旅途上，我读到了《国富国穷》一书中有关欧洲拉丁语国家与日耳曼语国家对比的章节。按照兰德斯的说法，曾经在财富赛跑中一度遥遥领先的意大利、西班牙、葡萄牙等拉丁语国家，之所以后来落后于北边的日耳曼语邻邦，原因很多，但最主要的是文化和宗教因素：天主教历史上对异端邪说的严厉排斥、对异教徒和标新立异的思想家、科学家的残酷迫害，扼杀了这些奉天主教为国教的拉丁语国家的创新精神，而作为新教国家的荷兰、英国、德国，却对异端邪说相对宽容。
此外，兰德斯还多次提及韦伯所说的“新教伦理”在塑造新教国家资本主义精神和企业家素质过程中的独特作用。
在车窗外匆匆掠过的如梦如幻的意大利海滨美景的陪衬下，我断断续续地读到了兰德斯的如下文字：
“意大利曾经一度领先，特别在意大利北部的波河河谷地区和热内亚周围地区。威尼斯和佛罗伦萨，一度是繁荣的工业中心和商业中心，后来却变成了纯粹的旅游胜地……意大利的统一（1870年）几乎没有改变早期劳动力和财富的分界线。北部混合了农业和工业，南部仍然是一片荒芜之地……南部最大的出口产品是移民：移居新世界特别是美国和阿根廷的移民以及二战后迁往意大利北部的移民。即使是意大利北部居民，也把他们的子女送往国外，通常是送到阿尔卑斯山以北的更为富裕的工业区……”
但我不知道，兰德斯对意大利先富后穷原因的分析，与我在德语区和意大利语区所观察到的那条民宅分界线，到底有着什么联系。
四
在意大利玩了一周之后，我们的大巴返回了奥地利。
抵达奥地利时，天色已经完全黑了下来。我们来到阿尔卑斯山区群山环抱的一个不知名的小山村，在山村客栈住了下来。
吃完晚饭，我顺着山村的主要街道信步走去。走到大概算是村中心的地方，我看到一家餐馆，招牌上写着“上海饭店”。我揉了揉眼睛：没错，是“上海饭店”，而且还是中文招牌！
在这个荒山野岭的奥地利山村，居然也有中餐馆！我走进餐馆，长着典型东方人小圆脸和丹凤眼的老板娘正在招呼几个喝得烂醉的白人酒鬼，见了我，她一愣：仿佛我是她开店以来见到的第一位华裔客人。半晌她才缓过劲来，用中文向我问好：“你是中国人吧？等一会儿，我让我先生出来招待你！”
不久，她先生出来了，给我倒了一杯啤酒。我们聊了起来。他们夫妻来自中国温州，十多年前从中国偷渡出来，投奔在奥地利首都维也纳开餐馆的温州亲戚。“我们温州人特别抱团儿，在中国走南闯北合伙做小生意，在国外更是互相帮助。维也纳中餐馆太多，我们夫妻就想着到一个完全没有任何中国人的小地方开餐馆，当时我们没有奥地利身份，银行贷不到款，所以我们开餐馆的钱都是亲戚朋友给凑的。”他告诉我说。
临别时，我掏出几个欧元硬币，却被他一把拦住：“你是我们到这个小山村十年来见到的第一个华人，高兴还来不及呢，怎么能让你掏钱……”
《国富国穷》一书也花了很大的篇幅，谈到曾经在财富竞争“长跑”中领先的中国，为什么后来远远落后于欧美列强。
谈到中国历史上第一次“对外开放”，人们常常会提到英国人的鸦片和枪炮，但曾以研究钟表历史而名闻遐迩的兰德斯，却提到了葡萄牙人的钟表。“机械钟表是打开中国大门的钥匙。”——这是兰德斯谈及中国的名句之一，他讲述的这段西方钟表“中国奇遇记”的故事，形象地说明了中国由盛转衰、由富转穷的深层原因。
当葡萄牙人在16世纪把西方的机械钟表带到中国时，中国的皇帝和大臣都被这种记录时间的精巧的机械装置迷住了，但他们却对钟表背后的西方科技嗤之以鼻。兰德斯指出，即使当时中国在对待西学问题上“最为开放、最为好奇”的清朝皇帝康熙，也认为西方数学的原理都来自中国的《易经》、西方科学的方法最初都根源于中国。“所以，不想放弃西式钟表的中国人，却把它们矮化为玩具或者不具有什么功能的地位象征……”兰德斯如此引申开来：“文化上的傲慢和政治上的专制，使中国成为一个不情愿的改善者和一位糟糕的学生。”
兰德斯后来在接受记者采访时，还从反面寻找了中西差距拉大的原因：“欧洲人从一开始就是杰出的学生，他们从来就毫不犹豫地借鉴和模仿他人，并试图相应地改善自己。他们从中国学到了火药制造术、印刷术和其它一些重大的技术。”
也许因为《国富国穷》一书出版于大约10年前，当时中国经济上崛起之势尚不太清晰，所以，兰德斯未在此书中提及中国人如今对待外界先进事物的态度变化。不过，在那次采访中，兰德斯也谈到了当代中国的变化：“中国人现在清醒地意识到，他们将不得不向西方学习。他们可能会说，‘是的，我们过去也有过向西方学习的想法，我们当时没有把这个想法付诸实施，但是我们现在这么做了。’他们确实有个自尊心的问题，但他们清楚地知道，在20世纪和21世纪的世界中，他们别无选择，只有努力走在前面。”
与某些过分强调“国民性”的学者不同，兰德斯并未把中国近代的落后与华人的“劣根性”联系起来，相反，兰德斯通过对同为华人社会的香港、台湾和新加坡经济起飞的分析，特别赞扬了华人聪明、勤奋、节俭等优良素质：“他们（指华人）拥有使韦伯的新教伦理都相形见绌的工作伦理，而且他们把这种工作伦理一代一代地传了下去。”
兰德斯还讲了一个他亲身经历的故事：
他第一次到访香港时是一个晚上，他从酒店出来，经过一个开设在石阶平台上的照相机小店，他随便向店内看了一眼，店主立即问他要买什么。原本并不想买什么的兰德斯顺口问了一种特殊的照相机镜头，店主脸色沉了下来：原来，他店里已经没有这种镜头的存货了。但他的眼光随后又一亮：“如果你晚一些再来，我就能搞到这种镜头。”兰德斯说：“我现在去吃晚饭，至少要到午夜12点才能回来。”店主回答说：“不用担心，你回来时，我在这里准备好镜头等你。”
午夜12点多，兰德斯返回酒店，突然想起了这件事，但疲困的他试图劝慰自己：“别去那家小店了，纯属浪费时间。”随后，他又感到有些内疚，所以还是去了那家小店：小店仍然开着，店主守着那只特殊的镜头，等着他的到来。
讲完这个故事，兰德斯反问道：有谁能够在美国或欧洲为我找到一个愿意这么做的店主？
（作者电子邮件地址：weicheng_ft@yahoo.co.uk，其新书《所谓中产》最近由南方日报出版社出版。）
《远观中国》
2007年11月1日星期四
Social networking
Face off
Nov 1st 2007 | SAN FRANCISCO
From The Economist print edition
An alliance around Google plans to make social networks more open
COULD Facebook, a three-year-old social network and the hottest internet company of the year, soon be as passé as AOL? AOL, you will recall, was a popular but proprietary online service of the early 1990s. But then Netscape's browser made the web easily and widely available, and today AOL is a lumbering unit of a media conglomerate. Another such “Netscape moment” may just have occurred in online social networks.
On November 1st an alliance including Google, the most popular web-search engine, and several other firms announced a plan to make social networks as open as Netscape's browser made the web. The group released a set of standards, called OpenSocial, that allows software developers to write applications that work with any social network that participates. So far this includes Google's network, Orkut, as well as LinkedIn, Ning, hi5, Friendster, Xing, Plaxo and a few others. Together, these have some 100m users, or twice as many as Facebook has. Oracle and Salesforce.com, two business-software firms, are also supporting the new standards.
This is a stark contrast to the approach taken by Facebook. In May it began allowing outside programmers to write applications that run on Facebook pages. But it requires them to learn a new, proprietary software language to do so, so that such “widgets” run only on Facebook. Thanks to the site's popularity, that has not held developers back. But now they also have the option, with negligible effort, to make their widgets available on many other networks. The biggest developers of Facebook widgets, such as Slide, iLike and RockYou, have already said that they will do so.
Marc Andreessen, the co-founder of Netscape in the 1990s and co-founder of Ning, one of Google's partners, believes that the OpenSocial approach is good for almost everyone. First, it is “very, very good for the web”. Second, it is good for Facebook developers, because they can now distribute their widgets elsewhere as well. Third, it is good for anybody who wants to turn a website into an OpenSocial widget, which is very easy.
Facebook itself, Mr Andreessen admits, would “probably prefer to have that proprietary lock-in”, as AOL once did, so it may not be so happy. But Facebook need not be as slow as AOL was in adjusting to an open world. If openness means that social networking becomes mainstream as fast as the web did in the 1990s, all networks could gain. Meanwhile, Facebook is apparently about to reveal a new initiative in online advertising—a field dominated by Google.
Nov 1st 2007 | SAN FRANCISCO
From The Economist print edition
An alliance around Google plans to make social networks more open
COULD Facebook, a three-year-old social network and the hottest internet company of the year, soon be as passé as AOL? AOL, you will recall, was a popular but proprietary online service of the early 1990s. But then Netscape's browser made the web easily and widely available, and today AOL is a lumbering unit of a media conglomerate. Another such “Netscape moment” may just have occurred in online social networks.
On November 1st an alliance including Google, the most popular web-search engine, and several other firms announced a plan to make social networks as open as Netscape's browser made the web. The group released a set of standards, called OpenSocial, that allows software developers to write applications that work with any social network that participates. So far this includes Google's network, Orkut, as well as LinkedIn, Ning, hi5, Friendster, Xing, Plaxo and a few others. Together, these have some 100m users, or twice as many as Facebook has. Oracle and Salesforce.com, two business-software firms, are also supporting the new standards.
This is a stark contrast to the approach taken by Facebook. In May it began allowing outside programmers to write applications that run on Facebook pages. But it requires them to learn a new, proprietary software language to do so, so that such “widgets” run only on Facebook. Thanks to the site's popularity, that has not held developers back. But now they also have the option, with negligible effort, to make their widgets available on many other networks. The biggest developers of Facebook widgets, such as Slide, iLike and RockYou, have already said that they will do so.
Marc Andreessen, the co-founder of Netscape in the 1990s and co-founder of Ning, one of Google's partners, believes that the OpenSocial approach is good for almost everyone. First, it is “very, very good for the web”. Second, it is good for Facebook developers, because they can now distribute their widgets elsewhere as well. Third, it is good for anybody who wants to turn a website into an OpenSocial widget, which is very easy.
Facebook itself, Mr Andreessen admits, would “probably prefer to have that proprietary lock-in”, as AOL once did, so it may not be so happy. But Facebook need not be as slow as AOL was in adjusting to an open world. If openness means that social networking becomes mainstream as fast as the web did in the 1990s, all networks could gain. Meanwhile, Facebook is apparently about to reveal a new initiative in online advertising—a field dominated by Google.
Vive la différence
Ann Morrison
Friday, November 02, 2007
Thebiggest difference between skiing in Europe and skiing in North America is neither the quality of the snow nor the steepness of the slopes. It's not about the speed of the lifts or the body piercings on the snow-boarders either.
It's lunch. In Europe, skiers not only stop for a midday meal, they take time to enjoy it. That means three courses (not a lonely hamburger), wine (yes, wine), and freshly made espresso (not coffee that has been stewing in a pot for hours). And, hey, why not a brandy to fortify you for the afternoon's exertions?
In New England, where I grew up, you put in as many morning runs as you could before you started to feel faint with hunger – or stopped feeling your toes because of the cold.
Lunch was a quick trip to the lodge at the bottom of the hill, where you'd wait in a long line for your cocoa or cola, and squeeze into a bit of space at a messy wooden table, which you would have to clean off with your napkin. After downing a packed sandwich, cookies and an orange, you'd be back in the lift line in 30 minutes or less. The point was to amortise that pricey ticket by squeezing in as much skiing as possible, whether you enjoyed it or not.
Friends who regularly ski at more exclusive resorts in the American west say that even now things aren't much better. The food options are limited, they claim, because resorts are owned by corporations that tend to sprinkle the same fast-food outlets all over the mountain. For a proper lunch, my sophisticated ski buddies tend to descend into the village – to places such as Sweet Basil's in Vail, for example.
Of course, European mountains have fast-food, self-service restaurants too. And plenty of folks pack their lunches. You'll often see them eating their baguettes at picnic tables strategically placed before vistas of unimaginable beauty.
But what makes a European ski holiday special – and for Americans, surprising – is the mountain restaurants, usually located high up on the slopes, complete with uniformed waiters, gourmet cuisine, extensive wine lists and great people-watching opportunities. Many even require reservations. To make my point, here is a clearly arbitrary analysis of three of the eight separately run restaurants d'altitude in Courchevel, one of France's most sophisticated ski resorts. (Courchevel has at least six other ski-accessible restaurants offering elegant lunches at lower levels on the mountain.)
At 2,000 metres, Cap Horn specialises in sea-level seafood: from sushi to caviar to giant plates of chilled oysters, clams, crab and assorted fruits de mer. Other cold food on offer: an excellent steak tartare (though it took three requests to get the accompanying frites.)
But if you are sitting on the expansive terrace – the only place to be on a sunny day – you might be more interested in something hot such as lasagne or a perfectly cooked sole meunière, or tartiflette, a €28 Savoyard speciality of potatoes, cheese and bacon. (You can pay €8 less for tartiflette at the Le Baratin snack bar, which is appended to the Cap Horn terrace but generally serves simpler food.)
The wine list at Cap Horn is extensive, with 380 different entries, and expensive (a 1999 Romanée-Conti sells for €11,555). The restaurant also features a DJ playing rock music from atop a snow-grooming machine, and encourages dancing in ski-boots. I didn't see anyone actually shaking their booty though. As for the clientele, Cap Horn is supposed to be popular with Russians, who make up about 3 per cent of Courchevel's holidaymakers. I didn't notice any of them either. The large group at one of the prime tables (the ones with the red and gold armchairs), where a sommelier was decanting a jeroboam of red Bordeaux, turned out to be British.
If anything, the scene on the terrace of Chalet de Pierres is even more glam. There are more photographers here than at the other two restaurants combined, shooting whoever looks interested in having a picture taken – like the older French woman sunning herself in just a halter top despite the cold. (The photos are available for sale in the village by nightfall.) While a clown amuses children, and a white-suited quartet slithers among the tables singing to recorded American pop music, the largely non-French diners sample olives, drink kir royales and study their menus.
There's sushi and shellfish here too but the better bets are the regional specialities, especially the cheese fondue. Improbably enough, it's great with the local white, Apremont, a relative bargain at €36. At the coffee end of the meal, the super-efficient waiting staff (often serving 350 on the terrace and hundreds more inside) bring a complementary plate of chocolate discs and a glass of the local Génépi liqueur. (Can you imagine that at Killington?)
The action is inside at the eclectically rustic La Soucoupe. At the huge open fireplace, the chef grills steaks, lamb chops, chicken brochettes, foie gras and duck breasts to absolute perfection. Somehow he also manages to scramble delicious eggs (with truffles, perhaps, or potatoes, ham and cheese) to order. The mains usually come with a bowl of garlic-scented roast potatoes and mange-tout to be shared, family-style. The wines are reasonable, with a crisp Savoyard white for €20 and a silky local pinot noir for €24.
The place is packed, with a higher percentage of French speakers than at the other two restaurants. Skiers happily wait for their tables at the funky bar or around the old upright piano, often over a bottle of champagne. At around 2:15pm, the regulars come in and the music (rock, of course) gets louder (but not so loud as to hinder conversation). And diners keep on coming. At 3pm, we were asked to surrender our prime table by the window, where our party of four – small by Courchevel standards – had enjoyed the food, wine and view for more than an hour and a half. In exchange, we were offered the brown leather couch in front of the fireplace, coffee and an entire bottle of Génépi. (We had only a glass each.) We were so cosy, we almost forgot that we had more skiing to do.
Finally, if all this doesn't make the case that European, especially French, skiing is different, consider this. At one point, we shared a télécabine with three hip, young Frenchmen. We couldn't help but overhear their animated conversation. They talked about the quality of the fresh strawberries at the market, chocolate in many guises, and the best way to make a cake. I wish I had asked them where they were having lunch.
Ann Morrison is a former editor of Time's European edition
Friday, November 02, 2007
Thebiggest difference between skiing in Europe and skiing in North America is neither the quality of the snow nor the steepness of the slopes. It's not about the speed of the lifts or the body piercings on the snow-boarders either.
It's lunch. In Europe, skiers not only stop for a midday meal, they take time to enjoy it. That means three courses (not a lonely hamburger), wine (yes, wine), and freshly made espresso (not coffee that has been stewing in a pot for hours). And, hey, why not a brandy to fortify you for the afternoon's exertions?
In New England, where I grew up, you put in as many morning runs as you could before you started to feel faint with hunger – or stopped feeling your toes because of the cold.
Lunch was a quick trip to the lodge at the bottom of the hill, where you'd wait in a long line for your cocoa or cola, and squeeze into a bit of space at a messy wooden table, which you would have to clean off with your napkin. After downing a packed sandwich, cookies and an orange, you'd be back in the lift line in 30 minutes or less. The point was to amortise that pricey ticket by squeezing in as much skiing as possible, whether you enjoyed it or not.
Friends who regularly ski at more exclusive resorts in the American west say that even now things aren't much better. The food options are limited, they claim, because resorts are owned by corporations that tend to sprinkle the same fast-food outlets all over the mountain. For a proper lunch, my sophisticated ski buddies tend to descend into the village – to places such as Sweet Basil's in Vail, for example.
Of course, European mountains have fast-food, self-service restaurants too. And plenty of folks pack their lunches. You'll often see them eating their baguettes at picnic tables strategically placed before vistas of unimaginable beauty.
But what makes a European ski holiday special – and for Americans, surprising – is the mountain restaurants, usually located high up on the slopes, complete with uniformed waiters, gourmet cuisine, extensive wine lists and great people-watching opportunities. Many even require reservations. To make my point, here is a clearly arbitrary analysis of three of the eight separately run restaurants d'altitude in Courchevel, one of France's most sophisticated ski resorts. (Courchevel has at least six other ski-accessible restaurants offering elegant lunches at lower levels on the mountain.)
At 2,000 metres, Cap Horn specialises in sea-level seafood: from sushi to caviar to giant plates of chilled oysters, clams, crab and assorted fruits de mer. Other cold food on offer: an excellent steak tartare (though it took three requests to get the accompanying frites.)
But if you are sitting on the expansive terrace – the only place to be on a sunny day – you might be more interested in something hot such as lasagne or a perfectly cooked sole meunière, or tartiflette, a €28 Savoyard speciality of potatoes, cheese and bacon. (You can pay €8 less for tartiflette at the Le Baratin snack bar, which is appended to the Cap Horn terrace but generally serves simpler food.)
The wine list at Cap Horn is extensive, with 380 different entries, and expensive (a 1999 Romanée-Conti sells for €11,555). The restaurant also features a DJ playing rock music from atop a snow-grooming machine, and encourages dancing in ski-boots. I didn't see anyone actually shaking their booty though. As for the clientele, Cap Horn is supposed to be popular with Russians, who make up about 3 per cent of Courchevel's holidaymakers. I didn't notice any of them either. The large group at one of the prime tables (the ones with the red and gold armchairs), where a sommelier was decanting a jeroboam of red Bordeaux, turned out to be British.
If anything, the scene on the terrace of Chalet de Pierres is even more glam. There are more photographers here than at the other two restaurants combined, shooting whoever looks interested in having a picture taken – like the older French woman sunning herself in just a halter top despite the cold. (The photos are available for sale in the village by nightfall.) While a clown amuses children, and a white-suited quartet slithers among the tables singing to recorded American pop music, the largely non-French diners sample olives, drink kir royales and study their menus.
There's sushi and shellfish here too but the better bets are the regional specialities, especially the cheese fondue. Improbably enough, it's great with the local white, Apremont, a relative bargain at €36. At the coffee end of the meal, the super-efficient waiting staff (often serving 350 on the terrace and hundreds more inside) bring a complementary plate of chocolate discs and a glass of the local Génépi liqueur. (Can you imagine that at Killington?)
The action is inside at the eclectically rustic La Soucoupe. At the huge open fireplace, the chef grills steaks, lamb chops, chicken brochettes, foie gras and duck breasts to absolute perfection. Somehow he also manages to scramble delicious eggs (with truffles, perhaps, or potatoes, ham and cheese) to order. The mains usually come with a bowl of garlic-scented roast potatoes and mange-tout to be shared, family-style. The wines are reasonable, with a crisp Savoyard white for €20 and a silky local pinot noir for €24.
The place is packed, with a higher percentage of French speakers than at the other two restaurants. Skiers happily wait for their tables at the funky bar or around the old upright piano, often over a bottle of champagne. At around 2:15pm, the regulars come in and the music (rock, of course) gets louder (but not so loud as to hinder conversation). And diners keep on coming. At 3pm, we were asked to surrender our prime table by the window, where our party of four – small by Courchevel standards – had enjoyed the food, wine and view for more than an hour and a half. In exchange, we were offered the brown leather couch in front of the fireplace, coffee and an entire bottle of Génépi. (We had only a glass each.) We were so cosy, we almost forgot that we had more skiing to do.
Finally, if all this doesn't make the case that European, especially French, skiing is different, consider this. At one point, we shared a télécabine with three hip, young Frenchmen. We couldn't help but overhear their animated conversation. They talked about the quality of the fresh strawberries at the market, chocolate in many guises, and the best way to make a cake. I wish I had asked them where they were having lunch.
Ann Morrison is a former editor of Time's European edition
2007年10月7日星期日
带孩子逛纽约
作者：英国《金融时报》撰稿人朱莉•迈尔森(Julie Myerson)
2007年10月8日 星期一
当我们第一次把3个孩子带到纽约时，他们就像到了天堂。这3个孩子分别是8岁、6岁和5岁。如果不算是真正的天堂，那么他们也肯定认为落入了《蜘蛛侠》(Spiderman)动画片的世界。由于不太适应时差，他们在出租车里睡着了，在凌晨两点向我要百吉饼吃，一路打打闹闹着登上了帝国大厦顶层。
孩子们的兴趣点
有时候，我丈夫乔纳森(Jonathan)和我确实怀疑过，整件事是否真的值得付出这番努力。他们可能只是像在乐高乐园(Legoland)那样快乐（和更为清醒）吗？然而，多年后，3个孩子对那次旅行很是感叹。精彩的部分？玩具卖场FAO Schwarz里可爱的美洲豹，“人行道上冒起的烟尘”以及在Madison Avenue一顿非常平常的午餐吃的那个非常平常的比萨饼，但他们仍能带着两眼朦胧的恐惧记起之后的海葱午餐。
这是10年前的事情了。如今，当年那些狼吞虎咽吃比萨的小孩子们已经长高，脸上长满了粉刺，他们不会轻易被感动。这次我们是与两个较小的孩子一起去的：16岁半的克洛艾(Chlo?)和15岁的拉斐尔(Raphael)。很明显，在纽约肥皂剧的持续熏陶下，这些穿着怪异的聪明孩子们认为，他们已经了解了在曼哈顿应该知道的所有一切。当听到酒店关门的消息后，拉斐尔热情洋溢的说：“我要在夜里去中央公园散步。”（我们告诉他：“不行，你最好别去！”）克洛艾叹息道：“我只是想去West Village吹吹风。”
在看了7个小时的电影和服下大剂量的晕车药后，我们抵达了肯尼迪机场(JFK)。“喔！”克洛艾甚至似乎对接受护照检查的队伍大为兴奋，“这一切都如此——美国化。”如果护照检查令人印象深刻——穿制服的员工实际上在微笑——，那么我们所住的酒店Columbus Circle 的文华东方酒店(Mandarin Oriental)也是如此。以前，我们从未在摩天大楼里睡着过。前台在35层，我们的房间在54层。卧室的窗户是落地窗，曼哈顿隐约浮现在脚下，就像是一部变幻莫测的黑白电影。
眼前的美景让我眩晕，我站在窗户前开始更衣。乔纳森说：“你真要裸体吗？”他指出就在对面也有一幢摩天大楼。我笑了。在这样虚幻的高度之上，我和我的裸体好像真的都不存在了。
然而，孩子们房间的Xbox确实存在，还有那超级热心的服务员，特别是一位叫肯(Ken)的服务员。肯无所不知——没有什么难得住他。“你喜欢看棒球赛？哦，是的。那么你想坐在哪？噢。你不知道棒球规则？好，让我解释给你听……”
逛街经历
我想说，我的孩子们来到纽约，是想坐上Staten Island游船、参观古根海姆博物馆(Guggenheim)和现代艺术博物馆(Museum of Modern Art)，并有机会领略真正的曼哈顿风情。实际上，他们是来这里购物的。第一天早晨，在Broome Street的Café Café吃过健康的令人失望的法国面包（天哪，搭配新鲜水果）后，他们开始在Canal Street逛街。在这里，拉斐尔立刻购买了一副3美元的太阳镜，3个小时后就坏了，因为在这里找不到销售唱片的地方，克洛艾显得气急败坏。“你说过，Canal Street不错。其实不是。这里是宰客的地方。”
我们努力跟他解释，一个不知名的外国城市的全部意义——即便你只是在做一些像购物这样简单的事情——在于，你不会知道好地方在哪里，直到你找到他们。这就是乐趣，这就是度假——你永远不知道你会在街角遇到什么令人惊讶的事情。“什么街角？”拉斐尔好奇地问。
幸运的是，Bleecker Street的咖啡店和破旧的唱片店让克洛艾高兴了许多。但那天早晨的大发现是百老汇(Broadway)上的Yellow Rat Bastard，3个喧闹漆黑的地下卖场，满是孩子们渴望的服装，美式且廉价。
我告诉他们：“等到你看到市区这家名为Century 21的商店就停下脚步。”这里是当地朋友极力推荐的打折服装仓库。我们跳上出租车（对于4个人而言，出租比地铁便宜）我没有告诉他们，那间店就在Ground Zero隔壁。
所有人都说过：“这里确实就是一个建筑工地。”但实际上并非如此。确实不是这样。甚至当我在这个平平常常的早晨走近它，走上这些安静而平常的街道时，我的心就开始怦怦跳。我们不可能不去想我们在电视上看到的那些浓烟和奔跑的人群。我们沉默地浏览了一下长长的遇难者名单，注视着这片空旷的场所，如今这里已被建筑工人和起重机填满。
我问孩子们：“你们还记得我们上次去世贸中心的时候吗？”拉斐尔摇了摇头。
克洛艾告诉他：“你买了一件Biker MiceT恤衫。”
“我不记得当时我说我们是在哪幢楼会面的，我丢了你们近一个小时，最后，那位可爱的商店服务员记得你们的样子，帮我找到了你们。”
拉斐尔说：“她现在可能已经过世了。”我们又看了一眼遇难者名单。
只有跟孩子们一起，你才能如此迅速的从Ground Zero跑到一家打折商店。但我们做到了。Century 21商品便宜，但里面喧哗且令人疲倦，也是一场赌博，不知道他们是否有我们需要的尺寸，最后我们什么都没买。
我们走进了West Village的一家咖啡店，乔纳森和我吃沙拉，而孩子们则径直走向油炸食品。
拉斐尔问：“我可以点一些炸薯条，与沙拉一起吃吗？”他看人和说话的口气都开始像美国人了。
后来，一位在纽约的朋友带我们与她的两个小孩在Riverside Park散步。“这是真正的公园，”她告诉不太相信的拉斐尔说，“中央公园更多的是为游客们准备的。”
他满怀信心的问她：“你会在这里遭到抢劫吗？”
一阵冷风从哈得孙河吹来，我们避开玩滑轮的人们，把她最小的儿子从速度飞快的骑车者中间推开。他很满意，但我的孩子们却受到了惊吓。“我很好，”当我建议她需要吃点什么时，克洛艾说道，“我想熬一宿。”
真正的参观
我们决定参观一些真正的景观（克洛艾说：“我希望回到Bleecker Street Records。”），我们走到了炮台公园(Battery Park)，登上一艘渡轮，参观爱利斯岛博物馆(Ellis Island Museum)，却看到了长长的队伍。“我们应该先问问肯，”我们都叹息着，我们想象着肯如何为我们解决这个问题。通过行贿让我们走到队伍前边？将爱利斯岛迁移到离我们酒店近一些的地方？
然而，克洛艾和拉斐尔想在一家小餐馆快速吃一顿午餐。接着他们在SoHo自己买了一些东西。拉斐尔问道：“然后我们可以去宠物动物园了吗？”
“去哪？！”
“宠物动物园。它在中央公园。里面有北极熊。”
“让我们去吧，”克洛艾说道，“那里比爱利斯岛要好。”因此他们去了宠物动物园，我们则去了萨克斯第五大道(Saks)。他们还独自（两人一起）乘坐了地铁，并成功返回了酒店。
我们慢悠悠的踱步回到了第五大道，我们沐浴着灿烂阳光，沿着绿树掩映的中央公园外围散步。空气如此充满曼哈顿特色——马粪（所有四轮马车的马儿们都在吃着一桶桶的燕麦）、热狗，还有温热的尿液气味从每个人行道上的格栅中传来。
“我喜欢曼哈顿的组合方式，”拉斐尔随后说道，“格栅系统。我喜欢这里一切都容易找到。”
克洛艾叹了口气：“我喜欢这里的配菜。”
“配菜？”
“我的意思是，我喜欢他们每道菜都搭配巧克力奶和薯条。”
“它们不是配菜，”拉斐尔指出，“只是你总是会点这些东西。”
然后我们观看了一场棒球赛。我们乘地铁到达了Shea Stadium，然后（就象电影中一样），孩子们不停得穿梭于那些提供各种配菜的人群。我们不知道实际的赛况，乔纳森不得不抑制住了将所有元素都不合适宜地与板球相比的愿望。
然而，我们等到了我们所期待的那一刻：一位之前作为候补队员的击球员在最后一局出场，观众突然一起站起身，生气地辱骂起来。这是土生土长的纽约人，尽管我们不知道这个可怜的球员到底哪里做错了，但我们还是热情洋溢的同他们一起尖叫着“欺骗”、“兴奋剂”、“无耻”。
如何带青少年去纽约：
对于青少年要记住的一点是，他们不知道他们想要什么。就像蹒跚学步的孩子一样。一个很大的不同点——也是很难与他们同游的原因——在于，他们认为他们可以做。因此你需要让他们认为，他们正做出所有的选择和决定。
1 教他们乘坐地铁，然后深吸一口气，让他们去做。你可以休息，他们可以得到独立和真正的旅游感觉。
2 提前考察哪里卖好的唱片、CD或难看的服装。青少年不喜欢在大热天被拉出去逛，但他们渴望购物。我们希望能让他们在百老汇自由购物，那里有Yellow Rat Bastard（百老汇478号）以及类似的商店。在那里，他们就像是到了天堂，可以轻易在那里呆上一天。
3 美国食品可以成为理想的青少年食品。份餐、薯条、沙司，而且份量很大。我们去了几个不错的地方吃早餐，Café Café（Broome Street 470号）供应健康的牛奶什锦套餐；如果你希望获得真正光彩夺目的美国大餐享受，Florent（Gansevoort Street 69号）是个不错的著名去处。然而，实际上，那些极为便宜的小餐馆也一样令孩子们兴奋。
4 时差会伴随你左右。在纽约，孩子们醒来的时间会提前。甚至在上午10点前让他们走出酒店都是可能的。
5 要适应这一现实：即便他们来到一个新的国度，那里有许多激动人心的新鲜经历等待着他们，但他们仍要花大量时间看电视。是的，美国电视就希望他们呆在家里看电视。你必须在参观古根海姆博物馆和再看一集他们已看了上百遍的《辛普森一家》(Simpsons)中间进行选择，不要因为他们选择后者就太过失望。
朱莉•迈尔森是英国《金融时报》家庭生活专栏作家，也是《Home: The Story of Everyone Who Ever Lived in Our House》（Harper Perennial出版社出版）的作者。她是文华东方酒店和旅游公司Carrier的客人。价格为每间客房1119英镑，包括3晚住宿，回程航班为英国航空(BA)World Traveller级别经济舱，并配有专车服务。有效期为2007年9月11日至11月30日。
电话：+44 (0)161-491 7640；www.carrier.co.uk
译者/梁艳裳
2007年10月8日 星期一
当我们第一次把3个孩子带到纽约时，他们就像到了天堂。这3个孩子分别是8岁、6岁和5岁。如果不算是真正的天堂，那么他们也肯定认为落入了《蜘蛛侠》(Spiderman)动画片的世界。由于不太适应时差，他们在出租车里睡着了，在凌晨两点向我要百吉饼吃，一路打打闹闹着登上了帝国大厦顶层。
孩子们的兴趣点
有时候，我丈夫乔纳森(Jonathan)和我确实怀疑过，整件事是否真的值得付出这番努力。他们可能只是像在乐高乐园(Legoland)那样快乐（和更为清醒）吗？然而，多年后，3个孩子对那次旅行很是感叹。精彩的部分？玩具卖场FAO Schwarz里可爱的美洲豹，“人行道上冒起的烟尘”以及在Madison Avenue一顿非常平常的午餐吃的那个非常平常的比萨饼，但他们仍能带着两眼朦胧的恐惧记起之后的海葱午餐。
这是10年前的事情了。如今，当年那些狼吞虎咽吃比萨的小孩子们已经长高，脸上长满了粉刺，他们不会轻易被感动。这次我们是与两个较小的孩子一起去的：16岁半的克洛艾(Chlo?)和15岁的拉斐尔(Raphael)。很明显，在纽约肥皂剧的持续熏陶下，这些穿着怪异的聪明孩子们认为，他们已经了解了在曼哈顿应该知道的所有一切。当听到酒店关门的消息后，拉斐尔热情洋溢的说：“我要在夜里去中央公园散步。”（我们告诉他：“不行，你最好别去！”）克洛艾叹息道：“我只是想去West Village吹吹风。”
在看了7个小时的电影和服下大剂量的晕车药后，我们抵达了肯尼迪机场(JFK)。“喔！”克洛艾甚至似乎对接受护照检查的队伍大为兴奋，“这一切都如此——美国化。”如果护照检查令人印象深刻——穿制服的员工实际上在微笑——，那么我们所住的酒店Columbus Circle 的文华东方酒店(Mandarin Oriental)也是如此。以前，我们从未在摩天大楼里睡着过。前台在35层，我们的房间在54层。卧室的窗户是落地窗，曼哈顿隐约浮现在脚下，就像是一部变幻莫测的黑白电影。
眼前的美景让我眩晕，我站在窗户前开始更衣。乔纳森说：“你真要裸体吗？”他指出就在对面也有一幢摩天大楼。我笑了。在这样虚幻的高度之上，我和我的裸体好像真的都不存在了。
然而，孩子们房间的Xbox确实存在，还有那超级热心的服务员，特别是一位叫肯(Ken)的服务员。肯无所不知——没有什么难得住他。“你喜欢看棒球赛？哦，是的。那么你想坐在哪？噢。你不知道棒球规则？好，让我解释给你听……”
逛街经历
我想说，我的孩子们来到纽约，是想坐上Staten Island游船、参观古根海姆博物馆(Guggenheim)和现代艺术博物馆(Museum of Modern Art)，并有机会领略真正的曼哈顿风情。实际上，他们是来这里购物的。第一天早晨，在Broome Street的Café Café吃过健康的令人失望的法国面包（天哪，搭配新鲜水果）后，他们开始在Canal Street逛街。在这里，拉斐尔立刻购买了一副3美元的太阳镜，3个小时后就坏了，因为在这里找不到销售唱片的地方，克洛艾显得气急败坏。“你说过，Canal Street不错。其实不是。这里是宰客的地方。”
我们努力跟他解释，一个不知名的外国城市的全部意义——即便你只是在做一些像购物这样简单的事情——在于，你不会知道好地方在哪里，直到你找到他们。这就是乐趣，这就是度假——你永远不知道你会在街角遇到什么令人惊讶的事情。“什么街角？”拉斐尔好奇地问。
幸运的是，Bleecker Street的咖啡店和破旧的唱片店让克洛艾高兴了许多。但那天早晨的大发现是百老汇(Broadway)上的Yellow Rat Bastard，3个喧闹漆黑的地下卖场，满是孩子们渴望的服装，美式且廉价。
我告诉他们：“等到你看到市区这家名为Century 21的商店就停下脚步。”这里是当地朋友极力推荐的打折服装仓库。我们跳上出租车（对于4个人而言，出租比地铁便宜）我没有告诉他们，那间店就在Ground Zero隔壁。
所有人都说过：“这里确实就是一个建筑工地。”但实际上并非如此。确实不是这样。甚至当我在这个平平常常的早晨走近它，走上这些安静而平常的街道时，我的心就开始怦怦跳。我们不可能不去想我们在电视上看到的那些浓烟和奔跑的人群。我们沉默地浏览了一下长长的遇难者名单，注视着这片空旷的场所，如今这里已被建筑工人和起重机填满。
我问孩子们：“你们还记得我们上次去世贸中心的时候吗？”拉斐尔摇了摇头。
克洛艾告诉他：“你买了一件Biker MiceT恤衫。”
“我不记得当时我说我们是在哪幢楼会面的，我丢了你们近一个小时，最后，那位可爱的商店服务员记得你们的样子，帮我找到了你们。”
拉斐尔说：“她现在可能已经过世了。”我们又看了一眼遇难者名单。
只有跟孩子们一起，你才能如此迅速的从Ground Zero跑到一家打折商店。但我们做到了。Century 21商品便宜，但里面喧哗且令人疲倦，也是一场赌博，不知道他们是否有我们需要的尺寸，最后我们什么都没买。
我们走进了West Village的一家咖啡店，乔纳森和我吃沙拉，而孩子们则径直走向油炸食品。
拉斐尔问：“我可以点一些炸薯条，与沙拉一起吃吗？”他看人和说话的口气都开始像美国人了。
后来，一位在纽约的朋友带我们与她的两个小孩在Riverside Park散步。“这是真正的公园，”她告诉不太相信的拉斐尔说，“中央公园更多的是为游客们准备的。”
他满怀信心的问她：“你会在这里遭到抢劫吗？”
一阵冷风从哈得孙河吹来，我们避开玩滑轮的人们，把她最小的儿子从速度飞快的骑车者中间推开。他很满意，但我的孩子们却受到了惊吓。“我很好，”当我建议她需要吃点什么时，克洛艾说道，“我想熬一宿。”
真正的参观
我们决定参观一些真正的景观（克洛艾说：“我希望回到Bleecker Street Records。”），我们走到了炮台公园(Battery Park)，登上一艘渡轮，参观爱利斯岛博物馆(Ellis Island Museum)，却看到了长长的队伍。“我们应该先问问肯，”我们都叹息着，我们想象着肯如何为我们解决这个问题。通过行贿让我们走到队伍前边？将爱利斯岛迁移到离我们酒店近一些的地方？
然而，克洛艾和拉斐尔想在一家小餐馆快速吃一顿午餐。接着他们在SoHo自己买了一些东西。拉斐尔问道：“然后我们可以去宠物动物园了吗？”
“去哪？！”
“宠物动物园。它在中央公园。里面有北极熊。”
“让我们去吧，”克洛艾说道，“那里比爱利斯岛要好。”因此他们去了宠物动物园，我们则去了萨克斯第五大道(Saks)。他们还独自（两人一起）乘坐了地铁，并成功返回了酒店。
我们慢悠悠的踱步回到了第五大道，我们沐浴着灿烂阳光，沿着绿树掩映的中央公园外围散步。空气如此充满曼哈顿特色——马粪（所有四轮马车的马儿们都在吃着一桶桶的燕麦）、热狗，还有温热的尿液气味从每个人行道上的格栅中传来。
“我喜欢曼哈顿的组合方式，”拉斐尔随后说道，“格栅系统。我喜欢这里一切都容易找到。”
克洛艾叹了口气：“我喜欢这里的配菜。”
“配菜？”
“我的意思是，我喜欢他们每道菜都搭配巧克力奶和薯条。”
“它们不是配菜，”拉斐尔指出，“只是你总是会点这些东西。”
然后我们观看了一场棒球赛。我们乘地铁到达了Shea Stadium，然后（就象电影中一样），孩子们不停得穿梭于那些提供各种配菜的人群。我们不知道实际的赛况，乔纳森不得不抑制住了将所有元素都不合适宜地与板球相比的愿望。
然而，我们等到了我们所期待的那一刻：一位之前作为候补队员的击球员在最后一局出场，观众突然一起站起身，生气地辱骂起来。这是土生土长的纽约人，尽管我们不知道这个可怜的球员到底哪里做错了，但我们还是热情洋溢的同他们一起尖叫着“欺骗”、“兴奋剂”、“无耻”。
如何带青少年去纽约：
对于青少年要记住的一点是，他们不知道他们想要什么。就像蹒跚学步的孩子一样。一个很大的不同点——也是很难与他们同游的原因——在于，他们认为他们可以做。因此你需要让他们认为，他们正做出所有的选择和决定。
1 教他们乘坐地铁，然后深吸一口气，让他们去做。你可以休息，他们可以得到独立和真正的旅游感觉。
2 提前考察哪里卖好的唱片、CD或难看的服装。青少年不喜欢在大热天被拉出去逛，但他们渴望购物。我们希望能让他们在百老汇自由购物，那里有Yellow Rat Bastard（百老汇478号）以及类似的商店。在那里，他们就像是到了天堂，可以轻易在那里呆上一天。
3 美国食品可以成为理想的青少年食品。份餐、薯条、沙司，而且份量很大。我们去了几个不错的地方吃早餐，Café Café（Broome Street 470号）供应健康的牛奶什锦套餐；如果你希望获得真正光彩夺目的美国大餐享受，Florent（Gansevoort Street 69号）是个不错的著名去处。然而，实际上，那些极为便宜的小餐馆也一样令孩子们兴奋。
4 时差会伴随你左右。在纽约，孩子们醒来的时间会提前。甚至在上午10点前让他们走出酒店都是可能的。
5 要适应这一现实：即便他们来到一个新的国度，那里有许多激动人心的新鲜经历等待着他们，但他们仍要花大量时间看电视。是的，美国电视就希望他们呆在家里看电视。你必须在参观古根海姆博物馆和再看一集他们已看了上百遍的《辛普森一家》(Simpsons)中间进行选择，不要因为他们选择后者就太过失望。
朱莉•迈尔森是英国《金融时报》家庭生活专栏作家，也是《Home: The Story of Everyone Who Ever Lived in Our House》（Harper Perennial出版社出版）的作者。她是文华东方酒店和旅游公司Carrier的客人。价格为每间客房1119英镑，包括3晚住宿，回程航班为英国航空(BA)World Traveller级别经济舱，并配有专车服务。有效期为2007年9月11日至11月30日。
电话：+44 (0)161-491 7640；www.carrier.co.uk
译者/梁艳裳
2007年10月6日星期六
Erkältung
Das kennt jeder: Erst fühlt man sich schlapp, dann fängt es im Hals an zu kratzen, schließlich läuft die Nase und es brummt einem der Schädel. Kurzum: Eine Erkältung kündigt sich an. In den Herbst- und Wintermonaten tritt sie besonders häufig auf. Ein Erwachsener steckt sich durchschnittlich zwei bis viermal im Jahr an, Kleinkinder sind mit bis zu 13-mal im Jahr am häufigsten betroffen. Rund 200 Erkältungen machen wir durchschnittlich im Laufe unseres Lebens durch. Das Immunsystem wird mit dem Infekt in der Regel zwar leicht fertig, lästig sind die typischen Symptome wie Husten und Schnupfen aber allemal.
Die Erkältung oder auch der grippale Infekt - nicht zu verwechseln mit der deutlich schwereren echten Grippe (Influenza) - ist eine akute Infektion der oberen Atemwege, die meist von Viren, manchmal zusätzlich auch von Bakterien verursacht wird. Insgesamt gibt es mehr als 100 Viren, die eine Erkältung auslösen können. Die Krankheitserreger werden sowohl über eine Tröpfcheninfektion durch die Luft als auch direkt oder indirekt durch Kontakt mit Erkrankten oder über kontaminierte Gegenstände in der Umgebung übertragen.
Von der Ansteckung bis zum Ausbruch der Krankheit vergehen zwei bis fünf Tage. Zuerst befallen die Viren die Nasen- und Rachenschleimhaut. Von dort können sie auf die Bronchien oder Nasennebenhöhlen übergreifen.
Erkältungsviren überleben auf der Hautoberfläche mehrere Stunden. Deshalb sollte man sich nach jedem Naseputzen gründlich die Hände waschen. Meist klingt die Erkältung nach einer Woche ab.
Es ist nicht abschließend geklärt, inwieweit Kälte für das Entstehen eines grippalen Infekts verantwortlich ist. Insgesamt jedoch begünstigen die Bedingungen in Herbst und Winter den Einfall der Viren. Die Schleimhäute werden durch den großen Temperaturunterschied zwischen drinnen und draußen belastet. Man hält sich weniger an der frischen Luft auf, geht man doch einmal vor die Tür, lässt nicht selten ungenügende Kleidung den Körper zu sehr auskühlen. All das kann zu Lasten des Immunsystems gehen. Sind die Abwehrkräfte einmal geschwächt, haben die Krankheitserreger leichtes Spiel.
Die Behandlung einer Erkältung besteht vor allem darin, dem Körper Ruhe zu gönnen und sich in warmen, nicht überheizten Räumen aufzuhalten. Außerdem sollte man viel trinken, um den Schleim flüssig zu halten und den Flüssigkeitsverlust auszugleichen. Ratsam sind Wasser, Fruchtsäfte oder Tee. Darüber hinaus gilt natürlich striktes Rauchverbot und am besten schont man auch seine Stimme.
Die Erkältung oder auch der grippale Infekt - nicht zu verwechseln mit der deutlich schwereren echten Grippe (Influenza) - ist eine akute Infektion der oberen Atemwege, die meist von Viren, manchmal zusätzlich auch von Bakterien verursacht wird. Insgesamt gibt es mehr als 100 Viren, die eine Erkältung auslösen können. Die Krankheitserreger werden sowohl über eine Tröpfcheninfektion durch die Luft als auch direkt oder indirekt durch Kontakt mit Erkrankten oder über kontaminierte Gegenstände in der Umgebung übertragen.
Von der Ansteckung bis zum Ausbruch der Krankheit vergehen zwei bis fünf Tage. Zuerst befallen die Viren die Nasen- und Rachenschleimhaut. Von dort können sie auf die Bronchien oder Nasennebenhöhlen übergreifen.
Erkältungsviren überleben auf der Hautoberfläche mehrere Stunden. Deshalb sollte man sich nach jedem Naseputzen gründlich die Hände waschen. Meist klingt die Erkältung nach einer Woche ab.
Es ist nicht abschließend geklärt, inwieweit Kälte für das Entstehen eines grippalen Infekts verantwortlich ist. Insgesamt jedoch begünstigen die Bedingungen in Herbst und Winter den Einfall der Viren. Die Schleimhäute werden durch den großen Temperaturunterschied zwischen drinnen und draußen belastet. Man hält sich weniger an der frischen Luft auf, geht man doch einmal vor die Tür, lässt nicht selten ungenügende Kleidung den Körper zu sehr auskühlen. All das kann zu Lasten des Immunsystems gehen. Sind die Abwehrkräfte einmal geschwächt, haben die Krankheitserreger leichtes Spiel.
Die Behandlung einer Erkältung besteht vor allem darin, dem Körper Ruhe zu gönnen und sich in warmen, nicht überheizten Räumen aufzuhalten. Außerdem sollte man viel trinken, um den Schleim flüssig zu halten und den Flüssigkeitsverlust auszugleichen. Ratsam sind Wasser, Fruchtsäfte oder Tee. Darüber hinaus gilt natürlich striktes Rauchverbot und am besten schont man auch seine Stimme.
2007年10月5日星期五
Doing business
Oct 4th 2007
From The Economist print edition
Singapore retained its ranking as the easiest place to do business in the World Bank's “Doing Business 2008” report, the fifth in an annual series. The rankings are based on ten quantitative measures of the regulatory environment for private firms. Egypt showed the biggest improvement compared with the last survey, advancing in five of the areas covered. A business can spring to life more quickly there than in Italy. Many of the countries making the greatest strides are in eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. Ghana, Colombia, Saudi Arabia, Kenya and China are also among the top ten reformers. Congo, where it takes 155 days to get a business up and running, is the lowest ranked country in the survey.
IFC News » Doing Business 2008: Making a Difference
Doing Business 2008: Making a Difference
Starting a business is not easy in the Democratic Republic of Congo. It takes 13 procedures and 155 days—and it costs five times the annual income per capita. The situation is even worse for women: they need the consent of a husband. And if you are a single woman, a judge decides whether you can become a businesswoman.
The result: Only 18 percent of small businesses are run by women in the DRC. Next door, in Rwanda, which has no such regulations, women run more than 41 percent of small businesses.
But many countries are making it easier to do business. The Doing Business 2008 report identifies 200 reforms in 98 countries between April 2006 and June 2007.
The top reformer was Egypt. Unhappy with its Doing Business ranking last year, the Egyptian government pulled out all stops. Its efforts cut deep—with reforms in five of the 10 areas studied by the report. It made the single fastest climb in the overall rankings on the ease of doing business.
Georgia, the top reformer last year, remains in the top 10 and continues to target better rankings each year. Its efforts are paying off: Georgia is now in the top 25 countries in overall rankings for the ease of doing business. Two African countries—Ghana and Kenya—also made this year's list of the top 10 reformers.
"Overall, Doing Business has had a powerful catalytic effect," says Simeon Djankov, the lead author of the report. "For example, in the past two years, we have recorded 413 reforms in the countries we study. We have been able to confirm at least 113 instances where Doing Business inspired or informed business regulatory reforms worldwide."
The Financial Times has noted that in publishing Doing Business, the World Bank Group is "producing a public good: measurements of regulatory performance that may become as indispensable to reformers and academics as national income accounts."
Business startup and investor returns
Doing Business 2008 finds that large emerging markets are reforming fast, with the potential to benefit hundreds of millions of people. Egypt, China, India, Indonesia, Turkey, and Vietnam all improved in the ease of doing business.
Doing Business is also analyzing the benefits of reform. "The report shows equity returns are highest in countries that are reforming the most," said Michael Klein, World Bank/IFC Vice President for Financial and Private Sector Development. "Investors are looking for upside potential, and they find it in economies that are reforming—regardless of their starting point," he added.
By far the fastest reforms are in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, which, as a region, surpassed East Asia this year in the ease of doing business. Estonia, the most business-friendly country of the former socialist bloc, ranks 17th on the ease of doing business. "The results show that as governments ease regulations for doing business, more entrepreneurs go into business," said Djankov. "Eastern Europe has witnessed a boom in new business entry, and many of the new companies are becoming global leaders, such as the Estonian-born software company Skype and the Czech car maker Skoda," he added.
Reforming business regulations benefits women
Doing Business is about studying obstacles to equal opportunity, and this year it began to look at this issue as it affects women. Initial findings indicate that higher rankings on the ease of doing business are associated with higher percentages of women among entrepreneurs and employees. Greater regulatory reform has especially large benefits for women, who often face regulations that may be aimed at protecting them but are counterproductive in effect, forcing them into the informal sector. There women have little job security and few social benefits.
The Doing Business project has committed to a two-year research program on reforms that improve the job and business opportunities for women.
Hitting the road
Doing Business does a simple but powerful thing: it systematically and objectively measures the time and cost involved in setting up, running, and closing a business in 178 countries around the world. With the publishing of the new report, the Doing Business team kicks off its annual road show visiting dozens of countries—and may be coming to a place near you.
Visit the Web site for more information on the project, to order copies of Doing Business 2008, and to generate your own reports using the latest Doing Business data: www.doingbusiness.org.
About Doing Business
A high ranking on the ease of doing business means that a government has created a regulatory environment conducive to operating a business, yet the rankings do not tell the whole story. They do not account for other factors such as the quality of infrastructure services, macroeconomic policy, proximity to large markets, or law and order.
A joint IFC-World Bank product, Doing Business is based on the efforts of more than 5,000 local experts around the world—business consultants, lawyers, accountants, government officials, and leading academics—who provide empirical input and methodological support and review.
For more information contact:
Karina Manasseh
Communications Officer
Phone: (202) 458-0434
E-mail: kmanasseh@ifc.org
From The Economist print edition
Singapore retained its ranking as the easiest place to do business in the World Bank's “Doing Business 2008” report, the fifth in an annual series. The rankings are based on ten quantitative measures of the regulatory environment for private firms. Egypt showed the biggest improvement compared with the last survey, advancing in five of the areas covered. A business can spring to life more quickly there than in Italy. Many of the countries making the greatest strides are in eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. Ghana, Colombia, Saudi Arabia, Kenya and China are also among the top ten reformers. Congo, where it takes 155 days to get a business up and running, is the lowest ranked country in the survey.
IFC News » Doing Business 2008: Making a Difference
Doing Business 2008: Making a Difference
Starting a business is not easy in the Democratic Republic of Congo. It takes 13 procedures and 155 days—and it costs five times the annual income per capita. The situation is even worse for women: they need the consent of a husband. And if you are a single woman, a judge decides whether you can become a businesswoman.
The result: Only 18 percent of small businesses are run by women in the DRC. Next door, in Rwanda, which has no such regulations, women run more than 41 percent of small businesses.
But many countries are making it easier to do business. The Doing Business 2008 report identifies 200 reforms in 98 countries between April 2006 and June 2007.
The top reformer was Egypt. Unhappy with its Doing Business ranking last year, the Egyptian government pulled out all stops. Its efforts cut deep—with reforms in five of the 10 areas studied by the report. It made the single fastest climb in the overall rankings on the ease of doing business.
Georgia, the top reformer last year, remains in the top 10 and continues to target better rankings each year. Its efforts are paying off: Georgia is now in the top 25 countries in overall rankings for the ease of doing business. Two African countries—Ghana and Kenya—also made this year's list of the top 10 reformers.
"Overall, Doing Business has had a powerful catalytic effect," says Simeon Djankov, the lead author of the report. "For example, in the past two years, we have recorded 413 reforms in the countries we study. We have been able to confirm at least 113 instances where Doing Business inspired or informed business regulatory reforms worldwide."
The Financial Times has noted that in publishing Doing Business, the World Bank Group is "producing a public good: measurements of regulatory performance that may become as indispensable to reformers and academics as national income accounts."
Business startup and investor returns
Doing Business 2008 finds that large emerging markets are reforming fast, with the potential to benefit hundreds of millions of people. Egypt, China, India, Indonesia, Turkey, and Vietnam all improved in the ease of doing business.
Doing Business is also analyzing the benefits of reform. "The report shows equity returns are highest in countries that are reforming the most," said Michael Klein, World Bank/IFC Vice President for Financial and Private Sector Development. "Investors are looking for upside potential, and they find it in economies that are reforming—regardless of their starting point," he added.
By far the fastest reforms are in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, which, as a region, surpassed East Asia this year in the ease of doing business. Estonia, the most business-friendly country of the former socialist bloc, ranks 17th on the ease of doing business. "The results show that as governments ease regulations for doing business, more entrepreneurs go into business," said Djankov. "Eastern Europe has witnessed a boom in new business entry, and many of the new companies are becoming global leaders, such as the Estonian-born software company Skype and the Czech car maker Skoda," he added.
Reforming business regulations benefits women
Doing Business is about studying obstacles to equal opportunity, and this year it began to look at this issue as it affects women. Initial findings indicate that higher rankings on the ease of doing business are associated with higher percentages of women among entrepreneurs and employees. Greater regulatory reform has especially large benefits for women, who often face regulations that may be aimed at protecting them but are counterproductive in effect, forcing them into the informal sector. There women have little job security and few social benefits.
The Doing Business project has committed to a two-year research program on reforms that improve the job and business opportunities for women.
Hitting the road
Doing Business does a simple but powerful thing: it systematically and objectively measures the time and cost involved in setting up, running, and closing a business in 178 countries around the world. With the publishing of the new report, the Doing Business team kicks off its annual road show visiting dozens of countries—and may be coming to a place near you.
Visit the Web site for more information on the project, to order copies of Doing Business 2008, and to generate your own reports using the latest Doing Business data: www.doingbusiness.org.
About Doing Business
A high ranking on the ease of doing business means that a government has created a regulatory environment conducive to operating a business, yet the rankings do not tell the whole story. They do not account for other factors such as the quality of infrastructure services, macroeconomic policy, proximity to large markets, or law and order.
A joint IFC-World Bank product, Doing Business is based on the efforts of more than 5,000 local experts around the world—business consultants, lawyers, accountants, government officials, and leading academics—who provide empirical input and methodological support and review.
For more information contact:
Karina Manasseh
Communications Officer
Phone: (202) 458-0434
E-mail: kmanasseh@ifc.org
Blundering into battle with China
The Korean war
Oct 4th 2007
From The Economist print edition
SOME old men keep in a half-forgotten file their medal, inscribed with bureaucratic precision: “For service in defence of the principles of the charter of the United Nations”. That was always humbug. The Korean war was an American venture intended to contain the newly victorious Chinese government of Mao Zedong, believed, quite wrongly, to be Moscow's puppet. David Halberstam was too reliable a story-teller to pretend otherwise.
His huge, sadly posthumous book spares just one sentence for the manoeuvre whereby the American delegation whisked the necessary resolution through the UN machine when a brief boycott by Stalin's delegation prevented it from applying its veto. He writes of “UN forces”, barely mentioning those that were not American, and skips through the last two years of static conflict in a couple of pages. His accounts of battles are vivid enough, but exist mainly to add conviction to his central proposition.
His real interest is the sequence of decisions by which America provoked China's intervention and missed chances to end the fighting. The central figure, and villain, is the supreme commander in Tokyo, General Douglas MacArthur. Earlier, MacArthur had brilliantly conducted the war in the Pacific and laid the foundations for the Japanese to build their astonishing state. But, old, stubborn and racially contemptuous of his adversaries, he aligned himself with Washington's “China lobby” and with Chiang Kai-shek's just-defeated nationalist regime. His strategic intelligence was compiled by a fantasist. And he despised his political masters to the point where he refused to salute his commander-in-chief, President Harry Truman.
Mr Halberstam believes that MacArthur, backed by Republican politicians, challenged the constitutional arrangements for civil supremacy that Abraham Lincoln had affirmed during the civil war. The constitution, in its incarnation as Truman, eventually won, and another wartime general, the admirable Dwight Eisenhower, nailed down this victory.
When MacArthur's strategic blunders brought China into the war, the Americans, overwhelmingly superior in technology, armament and logistics, were routed. They clawed their way back, but only to stalemate. The Chinese had no aircraft (Stalin, sensibly enough, had broken his promise to provide them), only such heavy artillery as the retreating Americans abandoned to them and no portable radios to co-ordinate their infantry. At one point, Mr Halberstam claims, their 300,000 men were almost starving, with only 300 trucks for food and ammunition.
But America's soldiers, tied to the valley roads by the weight of their gear and not trained to march, were victims of an enemy that could climb the hills overlooking their rearguard. The Chinese soldiers, even when their commanding hilltops glowed like cigarette-butts beneath tonnes of blazing napalm, would manhandle their mortars from deep-dug shelters and strike with deadly effect. All lessons from old wars were irrelevant.
Plenty of books tell the story of the Korean war. Mr Halberstam understood what it meant for America. Both sides thought they were fighting to unify a divided peninsula. The strange result of their struggle was to create two nations, one rich, the other mad. The world lives precariously with that. No peace treaty has yet put a formal end to the war.
Oct 4th 2007
From The Economist print edition
SOME old men keep in a half-forgotten file their medal, inscribed with bureaucratic precision: “For service in defence of the principles of the charter of the United Nations”. That was always humbug. The Korean war was an American venture intended to contain the newly victorious Chinese government of Mao Zedong, believed, quite wrongly, to be Moscow's puppet. David Halberstam was too reliable a story-teller to pretend otherwise.
His huge, sadly posthumous book spares just one sentence for the manoeuvre whereby the American delegation whisked the necessary resolution through the UN machine when a brief boycott by Stalin's delegation prevented it from applying its veto. He writes of “UN forces”, barely mentioning those that were not American, and skips through the last two years of static conflict in a couple of pages. His accounts of battles are vivid enough, but exist mainly to add conviction to his central proposition.
His real interest is the sequence of decisions by which America provoked China's intervention and missed chances to end the fighting. The central figure, and villain, is the supreme commander in Tokyo, General Douglas MacArthur. Earlier, MacArthur had brilliantly conducted the war in the Pacific and laid the foundations for the Japanese to build their astonishing state. But, old, stubborn and racially contemptuous of his adversaries, he aligned himself with Washington's “China lobby” and with Chiang Kai-shek's just-defeated nationalist regime. His strategic intelligence was compiled by a fantasist. And he despised his political masters to the point where he refused to salute his commander-in-chief, President Harry Truman.
Mr Halberstam believes that MacArthur, backed by Republican politicians, challenged the constitutional arrangements for civil supremacy that Abraham Lincoln had affirmed during the civil war. The constitution, in its incarnation as Truman, eventually won, and another wartime general, the admirable Dwight Eisenhower, nailed down this victory.
When MacArthur's strategic blunders brought China into the war, the Americans, overwhelmingly superior in technology, armament and logistics, were routed. They clawed their way back, but only to stalemate. The Chinese had no aircraft (Stalin, sensibly enough, had broken his promise to provide them), only such heavy artillery as the retreating Americans abandoned to them and no portable radios to co-ordinate their infantry. At one point, Mr Halberstam claims, their 300,000 men were almost starving, with only 300 trucks for food and ammunition.
But America's soldiers, tied to the valley roads by the weight of their gear and not trained to march, were victims of an enemy that could climb the hills overlooking their rearguard. The Chinese soldiers, even when their commanding hilltops glowed like cigarette-butts beneath tonnes of blazing napalm, would manhandle their mortars from deep-dug shelters and strike with deadly effect. All lessons from old wars were irrelevant.
Plenty of books tell the story of the Korean war. Mr Halberstam understood what it meant for America. Both sides thought they were fighting to unify a divided peninsula. The strange result of their struggle was to create two nations, one rich, the other mad. The world lives precariously with that. No peace treaty has yet put a formal end to the war.
Share prices in China have taken on a life of their own
China's stockmarkets
Rush hour
Oct 4th 2007 | HONG KONG
From The Economist print edition
TRAFFIC jams were not only to be found on the streets of Hong Kong this week. Share-trading systems were also clogged up as investors piled in after a holiday to mark the founding of the People's Republic of China. Mainland markets were closed for the Golden Week, which only seemed to drive more money to Hong Kong. On October 2nd the Hang Seng index closed above 28,000 for the first time, rising 3.9% in one day. Shares of mainland Chinese firms climbed even higher amid talk of heavy buying by institutions in China able to invest in Hong Kong.
A day later prices eased, but the gossip didn't. There were rumours that the Hong Kong stockmarket would attract some of the new $200 billion sovereign-wealth fund created by China's government. An announcement in August that ordinary Chinese would be allowed to invest in Hong Kong has also raised hopes of still more money to come. In China, most industries are caught up in the excitement, but in Hong Kong, shares of mainland firms trade at a discount to those in their home markets. That means arbitrage opportunities abound.
The bull market should make life sweet for securities analysts—at times, too sweet. Citigroup, for example, put a strong buy recommendation on China Resources Land, a property company, in mid-September, saying the share price could appreciate by 20%. Two weeks later, it had. Next big idea?
What if there are none? Certainly at some point rational price-earning assumptions will suggest there is nothing left to buy. Shares on the Chinese bourses have jumped to almost 65 times historic earnings from the 50s a week ago (see chart). Yet there is something suspiciously circular about the valuations because many firms profit from investing in shares. Future expectations, meanwhile, are staggering. The Hong Kong stock exchange trades at 39 times book. The ten-year average is six times.
Even the Chinese government is worried. To cool the markets down, it has imposed transaction taxes and higher interest rates. The management of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange has tried to talk the market down—to no avail. Officials should instead promote better disclosure so that investors can find out what they are buying. Transparency, however, is sensitive in China. Some assume that the Chinese government has too much at stake to let the market fail: the upcoming party congress, for example, or stable conditions ahead of the 2008 Olympics. Foreigners appear to buy that argument. Flow-of-funds data from Citigroup show that they continue to pour money in. Perhaps they think it is crazy to miss out on the madness.
Rush hour
Oct 4th 2007 | HONG KONG
From The Economist print edition
TRAFFIC jams were not only to be found on the streets of Hong Kong this week. Share-trading systems were also clogged up as investors piled in after a holiday to mark the founding of the People's Republic of China. Mainland markets were closed for the Golden Week, which only seemed to drive more money to Hong Kong. On October 2nd the Hang Seng index closed above 28,000 for the first time, rising 3.9% in one day. Shares of mainland Chinese firms climbed even higher amid talk of heavy buying by institutions in China able to invest in Hong Kong.
A day later prices eased, but the gossip didn't. There were rumours that the Hong Kong stockmarket would attract some of the new $200 billion sovereign-wealth fund created by China's government. An announcement in August that ordinary Chinese would be allowed to invest in Hong Kong has also raised hopes of still more money to come. In China, most industries are caught up in the excitement, but in Hong Kong, shares of mainland firms trade at a discount to those in their home markets. That means arbitrage opportunities abound.
The bull market should make life sweet for securities analysts—at times, too sweet. Citigroup, for example, put a strong buy recommendation on China Resources Land, a property company, in mid-September, saying the share price could appreciate by 20%. Two weeks later, it had. Next big idea?
What if there are none? Certainly at some point rational price-earning assumptions will suggest there is nothing left to buy. Shares on the Chinese bourses have jumped to almost 65 times historic earnings from the 50s a week ago (see chart). Yet there is something suspiciously circular about the valuations because many firms profit from investing in shares. Future expectations, meanwhile, are staggering. The Hong Kong stock exchange trades at 39 times book. The ten-year average is six times.
Even the Chinese government is worried. To cool the markets down, it has imposed transaction taxes and higher interest rates. The management of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange has tried to talk the market down—to no avail. Officials should instead promote better disclosure so that investors can find out what they are buying. Transparency, however, is sensitive in China. Some assume that the Chinese government has too much at stake to let the market fail: the upcoming party congress, for example, or stable conditions ahead of the 2008 Olympics. Foreigners appear to buy that argument. Flow-of-funds data from Citigroup show that they continue to pour money in. Perhaps they think it is crazy to miss out on the madness.
Russia slams the door on Chinese car factories
Chinese carmakers
Nyet
Oct 4th 2007 | HONG KONG
From The Economist print edition
THIS week saw two curious announcements concerning Russian cars. First, China's Xinhua news agency reported that Russia's Economic Development and Trade Commission had issued a decree forbidding foreign carmakers from building new plants. The next day Italy's Fiat elaborated plans to do just that, saying it would make 60,000 cars a year at a new factory in the Volga region in partnership with Severstal Auto, a Russian firm. The “decree”, it appears, applies only to manufacturers from China.
Seven Chinese car companies have so far applied for licences in Russia but only one of them, Chery Automobile, has been granted approval. Yet all their big American, European, Japanese and South Korean rivals have got the go-ahead; several are already making cars in Russia. Now there are reports that Russian carmakers are lobbying for Chery's licence to be revoked.
Another Chinese firm, Great Wall, first declared its intention to invest $40m in a plant in the region of Tatarstan 18 months ago. It says it remains in negotiations with the Russian authorities. But according to Xinhua, the decree will force it and the five other Chinese applicants to revisit their plans for Russia.
Part of the explanation may be doubts about the safety of Chinese cars. A video of China's best-selling car in Russia, the $9,000 Chery Amulet, collapsing as if made from cardboard when crash-tested by a Russian magazine has become a favourite on YouTube. Chinese cars have also performed poorly in German safety tests.
But Russia's rebuff may stem as much from Chinese carmakers' successes as from their failings. Until 2005 there were no exports of Chinese cars to Russia at all. This year, 120,000 vehicles are expected to arrive. In a country where 2.1m vehicles were sold last year, the Chinese manufacturers' volumes are still small. But, according to official figures, Chery's sales grew by 580% in the first eight months of 2007, to 24,000. Other foreign brands grew by an average 66%.
“Russia is one of the most promising markets for Great Wall,” Shang Yugui, a spokesman for the company, said this week. Unlike Western carmakers, Chinese ones compete head-on with Russia's indigenous manufacturers on price. That makes them really dangerous.
Nyet
Oct 4th 2007 | HONG KONG
From The Economist print edition
THIS week saw two curious announcements concerning Russian cars. First, China's Xinhua news agency reported that Russia's Economic Development and Trade Commission had issued a decree forbidding foreign carmakers from building new plants. The next day Italy's Fiat elaborated plans to do just that, saying it would make 60,000 cars a year at a new factory in the Volga region in partnership with Severstal Auto, a Russian firm. The “decree”, it appears, applies only to manufacturers from China.
Seven Chinese car companies have so far applied for licences in Russia but only one of them, Chery Automobile, has been granted approval. Yet all their big American, European, Japanese and South Korean rivals have got the go-ahead; several are already making cars in Russia. Now there are reports that Russian carmakers are lobbying for Chery's licence to be revoked.
Another Chinese firm, Great Wall, first declared its intention to invest $40m in a plant in the region of Tatarstan 18 months ago. It says it remains in negotiations with the Russian authorities. But according to Xinhua, the decree will force it and the five other Chinese applicants to revisit their plans for Russia.
Part of the explanation may be doubts about the safety of Chinese cars. A video of China's best-selling car in Russia, the $9,000 Chery Amulet, collapsing as if made from cardboard when crash-tested by a Russian magazine has become a favourite on YouTube. Chinese cars have also performed poorly in German safety tests.
But Russia's rebuff may stem as much from Chinese carmakers' successes as from their failings. Until 2005 there were no exports of Chinese cars to Russia at all. This year, 120,000 vehicles are expected to arrive. In a country where 2.1m vehicles were sold last year, the Chinese manufacturers' volumes are still small. But, according to official figures, Chery's sales grew by 580% in the first eight months of 2007, to 24,000. Other foreign brands grew by an average 66%.
“Russia is one of the most promising markets for Great Wall,” Shang Yugui, a spokesman for the company, said this week. Unlike Western carmakers, Chinese ones compete head-on with Russia's indigenous manufacturers on price. That makes them really dangerous.
2007年9月28日星期五
German security laws
Times of terror
Sep 27th 2007 | BERLIN
From The Economist print edition
Trying to cope with future threats but burdened by the past
THE German people have been spared a direct attack by Islamist terrorists. But the interior minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, himself a victim of an assassination attempt, has raised fears by saying that a nuclear attack by terrorists is only a matter of time. Franz Josef Jung, the defence minister, has added that, if terrorists used a passenger plane as a missile, he would have it shot down, contradicting a ruling by the constitutional court. Among those denouncing the two Christian Democratic ministers as scaremongers are their coalition partners, the Social Democrats. Mr Jung crossed a “demarcation line”, said the vice-chancellor, Franz Müntefering.
In Germany, the debate over the trade-off between security and liberty has two twists. The first, which may be healthy, is that it is being conducted within the tense “grand coalition” government, in which both sides of the argument are represented. The second, which is less so, is Germany's 60-year tradition of deep mistrust of the state. Other countries also face trade-offs; Germany is grappling with its historical taboos as well.
The constitutional court's overturning last year of parts of a “flight security law” simply reflects German legal doctrine. The duty to respect human dignity is absolute, so the state may not kill some to protect others, said the court. Nor may it deploy the armed forces at home except to repel foreign attacks or deal with catastrophes. Since soldiers cannot disobey the law, Mr Jung can have no confidence that the air force would shoot down a plane if he gave the order.
In fact, even the most zealous defenders of the court's ruling consider it impracticable. The argument is over whether Mr Jung should have said as much; and whether, as he insists, a new law is needed to sanction the shooting down of a passenger aircraft. His critics say he is playing politics with a remote possibility. If such a hijacking ever happened, it might be impossible to confirm the hijackers' intent in time to down the plane. But in such a situation, few doubt that the defence minister would give the order. “In that case it is wise to act and not to publish ideas and thoughts in advance,” comments Michael Hartmann, the Social Democratic spokesman for internal security.
The constitutional court may even agree. It avoided saying that any minister who issues a shoot-down order would be subject to criminal prosecution, notes Dietrich Murswiek, director of the Institute of Public Law at Freiburg University.
What Mr Jung and Mr Schäuble are really trying to do, their critics fear, is to replace Germany's “legal state” with a “preventive state”. Mr Schäuble, the supposed ringleader, sees the distinction between foreign and domestic security as false and is given to provocative suggestions (perhaps known terrorists should be targeted for assassination, he mused recently). His security wish-list includes such controversial proposals as letting the security services install spy software on suspects' computers. Although Mr Hartmann supports on-line snooping, he worries that “step by step Germany could become an only security-oriented state.”
Despite these disputes Germany is updating its anti-terrorism laws. The grand coalition has passed 13 measures, such as authorising police and the secret services to share data on terrorist suspects. The spat over Messrs Jung and Schäuble's remarks has not stopped the government from negotiating over new laws to expand the powers of the federal police. The difference, says Mr Hartmann, is that “now we don't smile when we see each other.”
Sep 27th 2007 | BERLIN
From The Economist print edition
Trying to cope with future threats but burdened by the past
THE German people have been spared a direct attack by Islamist terrorists. But the interior minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, himself a victim of an assassination attempt, has raised fears by saying that a nuclear attack by terrorists is only a matter of time. Franz Josef Jung, the defence minister, has added that, if terrorists used a passenger plane as a missile, he would have it shot down, contradicting a ruling by the constitutional court. Among those denouncing the two Christian Democratic ministers as scaremongers are their coalition partners, the Social Democrats. Mr Jung crossed a “demarcation line”, said the vice-chancellor, Franz Müntefering.
In Germany, the debate over the trade-off between security and liberty has two twists. The first, which may be healthy, is that it is being conducted within the tense “grand coalition” government, in which both sides of the argument are represented. The second, which is less so, is Germany's 60-year tradition of deep mistrust of the state. Other countries also face trade-offs; Germany is grappling with its historical taboos as well.
The constitutional court's overturning last year of parts of a “flight security law” simply reflects German legal doctrine. The duty to respect human dignity is absolute, so the state may not kill some to protect others, said the court. Nor may it deploy the armed forces at home except to repel foreign attacks or deal with catastrophes. Since soldiers cannot disobey the law, Mr Jung can have no confidence that the air force would shoot down a plane if he gave the order.
In fact, even the most zealous defenders of the court's ruling consider it impracticable. The argument is over whether Mr Jung should have said as much; and whether, as he insists, a new law is needed to sanction the shooting down of a passenger aircraft. His critics say he is playing politics with a remote possibility. If such a hijacking ever happened, it might be impossible to confirm the hijackers' intent in time to down the plane. But in such a situation, few doubt that the defence minister would give the order. “In that case it is wise to act and not to publish ideas and thoughts in advance,” comments Michael Hartmann, the Social Democratic spokesman for internal security.
The constitutional court may even agree. It avoided saying that any minister who issues a shoot-down order would be subject to criminal prosecution, notes Dietrich Murswiek, director of the Institute of Public Law at Freiburg University.
What Mr Jung and Mr Schäuble are really trying to do, their critics fear, is to replace Germany's “legal state” with a “preventive state”. Mr Schäuble, the supposed ringleader, sees the distinction between foreign and domestic security as false and is given to provocative suggestions (perhaps known terrorists should be targeted for assassination, he mused recently). His security wish-list includes such controversial proposals as letting the security services install spy software on suspects' computers. Although Mr Hartmann supports on-line snooping, he worries that “step by step Germany could become an only security-oriented state.”
Despite these disputes Germany is updating its anti-terrorism laws. The grand coalition has passed 13 measures, such as authorising police and the secret services to share data on terrorist suspects. The spat over Messrs Jung and Schäuble's remarks has not stopped the government from negotiating over new laws to expand the powers of the federal police. The difference, says Mr Hartmann, is that “now we don't smile when we see each other.”
Aviation in China
Dog fight
Sep 27th 2007 | HONG KONG
From The Economist print edition
A fight in Shanghai between two airlines ends Chinese-style: mysteriously
CONTROL of the world's aviation hubs is so thoroughly locked up that the possibility one of them might be up for grabs is almost inconceivable. Hence the excitement when a fight broke out over access to Shanghai, before coming abruptly to a halt on September 24th.
It is hard to overstate Shanghai's attractiveness to airlines. The number of passengers handled by the city's two airports, Pudong and Hongqiao, has increased by more than 20% a year for five years, compared with single-digit growth at most of the world's big airports. Companies' operations in China require personal attention, so as business expands westward from the coastal cities, demand for easy access by air will only increase.
The dominant airline in Shanghai, with a market share of 37%, is China Eastern Airlines. Barely profitable, poorly managed and in need of investment, it has been in talks for more than a year with Singapore Airlines, one of the world's best airlines. China Eastern's share price began to move up sharply in May and nearly tripled during September on the announcement that Singapore Airlines would take a 15.7% share in the company and that Temasek, the Singaporean state-owned investment company, would purchase 8.3%. The deal, which would provide almost $1 billion for new investment, was approved by Chinese officials at cabinet level.
The prospect of a better managed, well-capitalised competitor sent a shudder through Air China, another government-controlled airline, which has a 20% market share in Shanghai. It also alarmed Air China's partner, Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific, which dominates the lucrative Hong Kong route through a subsidiary, Dragonair. Rumours abounded that Cathay was preparing to announce a rival bid for China Eastern. Both airlines' share prices shot up. On September 21st Cathay's shares were suspended pending an announcement about “a proposed transaction”. But instead Cathay Pacific said on September 24th that it had no plans to bid for China Eastern. It gave no reason, but political pressure from the Chinese government is believed to have scuppered its plans.
Passengers probably do not mind whether it is Singapore or Cathay that takes a stake in China Eastern—service is bound to improve either way. There is talk of some sort of a tie-up between China Southern, the third of China's big airlines, and Air France-KLM, which would also lead to improvements. But evidently the government's enthusiasm for genuine competition goes only so far. This week's pre-emption of a bidding war left no doubt about who in China controls not just the ground, but the skies too.
Sep 27th 2007 | HONG KONG
From The Economist print edition
A fight in Shanghai between two airlines ends Chinese-style: mysteriously
CONTROL of the world's aviation hubs is so thoroughly locked up that the possibility one of them might be up for grabs is almost inconceivable. Hence the excitement when a fight broke out over access to Shanghai, before coming abruptly to a halt on September 24th.
It is hard to overstate Shanghai's attractiveness to airlines. The number of passengers handled by the city's two airports, Pudong and Hongqiao, has increased by more than 20% a year for five years, compared with single-digit growth at most of the world's big airports. Companies' operations in China require personal attention, so as business expands westward from the coastal cities, demand for easy access by air will only increase.
The dominant airline in Shanghai, with a market share of 37%, is China Eastern Airlines. Barely profitable, poorly managed and in need of investment, it has been in talks for more than a year with Singapore Airlines, one of the world's best airlines. China Eastern's share price began to move up sharply in May and nearly tripled during September on the announcement that Singapore Airlines would take a 15.7% share in the company and that Temasek, the Singaporean state-owned investment company, would purchase 8.3%. The deal, which would provide almost $1 billion for new investment, was approved by Chinese officials at cabinet level.
The prospect of a better managed, well-capitalised competitor sent a shudder through Air China, another government-controlled airline, which has a 20% market share in Shanghai. It also alarmed Air China's partner, Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific, which dominates the lucrative Hong Kong route through a subsidiary, Dragonair. Rumours abounded that Cathay was preparing to announce a rival bid for China Eastern. Both airlines' share prices shot up. On September 21st Cathay's shares were suspended pending an announcement about “a proposed transaction”. But instead Cathay Pacific said on September 24th that it had no plans to bid for China Eastern. It gave no reason, but political pressure from the Chinese government is believed to have scuppered its plans.
Passengers probably do not mind whether it is Singapore or Cathay that takes a stake in China Eastern—service is bound to improve either way. There is talk of some sort of a tie-up between China Southern, the third of China's big airlines, and Air France-KLM, which would also lead to improvements. But evidently the government's enthusiasm for genuine competition goes only so far. This week's pre-emption of a bidding war left no doubt about who in China controls not just the ground, but the skies too.
老洋房里的内衣秀
英国《金融时报》中文网特约撰稿人范庭略
2007年9月28日 星期五
走进人家的私宅，坐在人家的客厅，看着人家的老婆在给你做饭，这是一位大陆美食家描写他第一次去一家香港私房菜吃饭时候的意乱神迷。俗话说老婆是人家的好，儿子是自己的好。私房菜看来也是人家老婆烧得更加好。
在香港的金融风暴之后，很多的私房菜馆在饮食管理严格的香港营运而生，最初的考虑都是因为自己的菜烧得好，又可以挣钱，但是一楼临街租金太贵，烟牌、酒牌很难在短期取得，除了食品卫生署的考察之外，还需要在报纸上刊登广告，主要是需要徵求街坊四邻的意见，于是很多人开始觉得在自己家里开一家餐厅应该不错，都是靠口碑来相传，几道拿手的小菜，再加上几瓶珍藏的红酒，想吃的就预订，没有客人就正常过日子，这种居家“阿庆嫂”显然是将成本和营收考虑得最好的经营者。不过最后可以将生意做大的，始终要从楼上搬下来，毕竟SOHO厨师还是营业额太低。而据本地的文史爱好者考证，上海最初的私房菜显然要比香港更加源远流长，这并不是金融风暴之后的事情，而是在有长三堂子盛行的旧上海，著名的当家花旦年底酬谢大客户，做几道小菜做为犒劳，当然那个时候不流行给大客户抽奖之类的尾牙聚会，最多就是《海上花》里面梁朝伟和李嘉欣那样吃几样小菜，温一温黄酒，然后希望来年继续多多捧场。不过私房菜做到最后就是消灭了原有的各类牌照，将利益最大化之后，依靠着几个老饕的轮流捧场，不断在工艺上推陈出新，有时候想想和大陆的农家菜或者什么毛豆阿姨之类的，颇有几分类似，不过真正上了名贵的燕鲍翅之后，显然就不好在家里继续SOHO了，于是做大做强的野心昭然若现。在今天中国的餐饮界哪个不想做小肥羊或者俏江南呢？除了可以挣现金之外，还可以上市圈钱，显然是利益最大化的好选择，既然是好的选择那么于公于私就不要太过于讲究了。
私房菜吃多了，但是私房内衣秀却还是第一次见到。所谓中国大牌子的“麦加”就是指上海的恒隆广场，如果在这里看不到阁下的品牌，不要说你是卢浮宫珍藏的，你就是少年宫珍藏的都没戏。于是在恒隆的周围聚集了众多渴望成为大牌或者显然就是大牌的水货聚集地。当然了，水货并不是说它是假货，只是它没有按照正常的手续进口，或者是商家自己安排买手去欧洲进货，但是并不在专卖地里面出现的产品。恒隆的周围众多老式里弄洋房里面散布着这样的小店，如果说恒隆或者中信泰富是城门的话，它们就是池鱼。也可以说它们是站在了巨人的肩膀上。在一个周五的傍晚，我很兴奋的参加了一次内衣私房秀的活动。首先大家坐在中信泰富楼下的星巴克里面碰头，于是各路人马开始聚集，因为大家都很好奇，这种所谓的一对一的内衣秀究竟会是如何呢？我倒是和朋友在纽约时代广场的附近看到过一对一的内衣秀，可惜不是在秀内衣，而是在秀舞娘的身材。事先召集人已经告诉大家，模特不多，货品很多。于是浮想联翩的安迪偷偷问我，难道真是一个模特儿对一群看客吗？在我们步入中信泰富对面的院子的时候，老式里弄洋房的幽静并不比陕西北路荣家老宅的规模相差太远。拾阶而上，一如上海众多老式住宅的昏暗，走廊上的几瓦小灯泡给我们一种神秘的意味，难道推开二楼这扇门真的会豁然开朗吗？答案倒是肯定的。那扇门打开之后，里面显然是另外的一种风情，完全是按照巴黎的设计风格重新装修的，甚至连天花都作了细部的处理，护墙板的颜色给你一种暧昧的呼唤，而最明显的水晶吊灯给我们一种比较正式的专卖店风格。厚厚的地毯踩在脚下，空调无声的开着，温度完全的降了下来。刚刚那种七十二家房客的老式里弄的感觉都被那扇大门给隔绝了。主人是一位精明能干的台湾姑娘，而她做为内衣的买手所经营的内衣显然是和淮海路上的古今系列有所不同。比较有趣的是今天除了召集人是女孩子之外，一水儿的放牛班全男生，反而开始有些不好意思。她把音乐打开，房间里面开始弥漫着HOTEL系列的音乐，在DJ台旁边的巧克力和红酒使得没有吃晚饭的朋友们减少了拘束。台湾姑娘开始询问大家给自己的女友是否需要送一件内衣或者睡衣等等。最紧张的时候到了：如果你们觉得好看，但是没有把握知道女友是否合适的话，我们的模特儿可以传给你看！这个时候，一位个头矮小但是某些部位还算丰满的姑娘出现在大家面前，她羞涩的笑着，希望我们选好了之后预订她的试穿。这些内衣都是她采购自欧洲的名牌内衣店，不乏恒隆里面的大牌子，但是也许是由于货品的问题，那些牌子显然还没有在中国推出它们的内衣产品。如果可以在这里买一件名牌内衣，倒是一个很好的选择。
专业的眼光来看这个姑娘似乎不是很适合做内衣模特儿，尽管我们都不是经纪公司的，但是看到姑娘胳膊上种植的牛痘以及估计本周蚊子新鲜来访的痕迹，感到近距离看一个内衣模特儿是不礼貌的。但是姑娘显然是习惯了客人的眼光，大方的进到里间去更换第一套的内衣。在迷幻的LOUNGE音乐的召唤下，内衣秀开始了。虽然没有追光灯，但是小小的房间里面，挤着七八个彬彬有礼的男性客户，模特儿从容的站在距离你不到10公分的地方，的确无论款式还是质地都可以看得清清楚楚。
显然这样的销售手法要比在柜台前面要求一个陌生顾客试试你的太太的尺码更加高明很多。估计很多男性客人都有过被各种热心大妈要求给她的儿子买衣服时候看看尺码的经历，但是我敢保证如果在一家内衣店里面去要求一位陌生的女客人为自己的女友试一试某杯的内衣，你先要确定对方是否也是同样尺码，这的确有些勉为其难。这种有容乃大的要求在这种内衣私房秀里面完全得到了解决。同来的客人还没有选好，门铃响了，第二批接踵而至，显然生意还是很不错。在我们离开的时候，我偷偷的问安迪，你为什么不给你的女朋友买一件呢？他笑着告诉我，他觉得内衣和鞋子一样，还是让她们自己来买比较好。另外他买的内衣都是用来撕的，显然这种两三千人民币的内衣，他的确有些不忍心下手。
2007年9月28日 星期五
走进人家的私宅，坐在人家的客厅，看着人家的老婆在给你做饭，这是一位大陆美食家描写他第一次去一家香港私房菜吃饭时候的意乱神迷。俗话说老婆是人家的好，儿子是自己的好。私房菜看来也是人家老婆烧得更加好。
在香港的金融风暴之后，很多的私房菜馆在饮食管理严格的香港营运而生，最初的考虑都是因为自己的菜烧得好，又可以挣钱，但是一楼临街租金太贵，烟牌、酒牌很难在短期取得，除了食品卫生署的考察之外，还需要在报纸上刊登广告，主要是需要徵求街坊四邻的意见，于是很多人开始觉得在自己家里开一家餐厅应该不错，都是靠口碑来相传，几道拿手的小菜，再加上几瓶珍藏的红酒，想吃的就预订，没有客人就正常过日子，这种居家“阿庆嫂”显然是将成本和营收考虑得最好的经营者。不过最后可以将生意做大的，始终要从楼上搬下来，毕竟SOHO厨师还是营业额太低。而据本地的文史爱好者考证，上海最初的私房菜显然要比香港更加源远流长，这并不是金融风暴之后的事情，而是在有长三堂子盛行的旧上海，著名的当家花旦年底酬谢大客户，做几道小菜做为犒劳，当然那个时候不流行给大客户抽奖之类的尾牙聚会，最多就是《海上花》里面梁朝伟和李嘉欣那样吃几样小菜，温一温黄酒，然后希望来年继续多多捧场。不过私房菜做到最后就是消灭了原有的各类牌照，将利益最大化之后，依靠着几个老饕的轮流捧场，不断在工艺上推陈出新，有时候想想和大陆的农家菜或者什么毛豆阿姨之类的，颇有几分类似，不过真正上了名贵的燕鲍翅之后，显然就不好在家里继续SOHO了，于是做大做强的野心昭然若现。在今天中国的餐饮界哪个不想做小肥羊或者俏江南呢？除了可以挣现金之外，还可以上市圈钱，显然是利益最大化的好选择，既然是好的选择那么于公于私就不要太过于讲究了。
私房菜吃多了，但是私房内衣秀却还是第一次见到。所谓中国大牌子的“麦加”就是指上海的恒隆广场，如果在这里看不到阁下的品牌，不要说你是卢浮宫珍藏的，你就是少年宫珍藏的都没戏。于是在恒隆的周围聚集了众多渴望成为大牌或者显然就是大牌的水货聚集地。当然了，水货并不是说它是假货，只是它没有按照正常的手续进口，或者是商家自己安排买手去欧洲进货，但是并不在专卖地里面出现的产品。恒隆的周围众多老式里弄洋房里面散布着这样的小店，如果说恒隆或者中信泰富是城门的话，它们就是池鱼。也可以说它们是站在了巨人的肩膀上。在一个周五的傍晚，我很兴奋的参加了一次内衣私房秀的活动。首先大家坐在中信泰富楼下的星巴克里面碰头，于是各路人马开始聚集，因为大家都很好奇，这种所谓的一对一的内衣秀究竟会是如何呢？我倒是和朋友在纽约时代广场的附近看到过一对一的内衣秀，可惜不是在秀内衣，而是在秀舞娘的身材。事先召集人已经告诉大家，模特不多，货品很多。于是浮想联翩的安迪偷偷问我，难道真是一个模特儿对一群看客吗？在我们步入中信泰富对面的院子的时候，老式里弄洋房的幽静并不比陕西北路荣家老宅的规模相差太远。拾阶而上，一如上海众多老式住宅的昏暗，走廊上的几瓦小灯泡给我们一种神秘的意味，难道推开二楼这扇门真的会豁然开朗吗？答案倒是肯定的。那扇门打开之后，里面显然是另外的一种风情，完全是按照巴黎的设计风格重新装修的，甚至连天花都作了细部的处理，护墙板的颜色给你一种暧昧的呼唤，而最明显的水晶吊灯给我们一种比较正式的专卖店风格。厚厚的地毯踩在脚下，空调无声的开着，温度完全的降了下来。刚刚那种七十二家房客的老式里弄的感觉都被那扇大门给隔绝了。主人是一位精明能干的台湾姑娘，而她做为内衣的买手所经营的内衣显然是和淮海路上的古今系列有所不同。比较有趣的是今天除了召集人是女孩子之外，一水儿的放牛班全男生，反而开始有些不好意思。她把音乐打开，房间里面开始弥漫着HOTEL系列的音乐，在DJ台旁边的巧克力和红酒使得没有吃晚饭的朋友们减少了拘束。台湾姑娘开始询问大家给自己的女友是否需要送一件内衣或者睡衣等等。最紧张的时候到了：如果你们觉得好看，但是没有把握知道女友是否合适的话，我们的模特儿可以传给你看！这个时候，一位个头矮小但是某些部位还算丰满的姑娘出现在大家面前，她羞涩的笑着，希望我们选好了之后预订她的试穿。这些内衣都是她采购自欧洲的名牌内衣店，不乏恒隆里面的大牌子，但是也许是由于货品的问题，那些牌子显然还没有在中国推出它们的内衣产品。如果可以在这里买一件名牌内衣，倒是一个很好的选择。
专业的眼光来看这个姑娘似乎不是很适合做内衣模特儿，尽管我们都不是经纪公司的，但是看到姑娘胳膊上种植的牛痘以及估计本周蚊子新鲜来访的痕迹，感到近距离看一个内衣模特儿是不礼貌的。但是姑娘显然是习惯了客人的眼光，大方的进到里间去更换第一套的内衣。在迷幻的LOUNGE音乐的召唤下，内衣秀开始了。虽然没有追光灯，但是小小的房间里面，挤着七八个彬彬有礼的男性客户，模特儿从容的站在距离你不到10公分的地方，的确无论款式还是质地都可以看得清清楚楚。
显然这样的销售手法要比在柜台前面要求一个陌生顾客试试你的太太的尺码更加高明很多。估计很多男性客人都有过被各种热心大妈要求给她的儿子买衣服时候看看尺码的经历，但是我敢保证如果在一家内衣店里面去要求一位陌生的女客人为自己的女友试一试某杯的内衣，你先要确定对方是否也是同样尺码，这的确有些勉为其难。这种有容乃大的要求在这种内衣私房秀里面完全得到了解决。同来的客人还没有选好，门铃响了，第二批接踵而至，显然生意还是很不错。在我们离开的时候，我偷偷的问安迪，你为什么不给你的女朋友买一件呢？他笑着告诉我，他觉得内衣和鞋子一样，还是让她们自己来买比较好。另外他买的内衣都是用来撕的，显然这种两三千人民币的内衣，他的确有些不忍心下手。
目击藏传佛教法会
英国《金融时报》中文网特约撰稿人邬东言
2007年9月28日 星期五
刚刚在非常偏远的藏区参加了一个藏传佛教的盛大法会。对于一个一直生活在大都市的人来说，最大的收获，就是重新见识了久违了的信仰的力量。
法会开在深山里的一座寺庙。从主要的公路到寺庙，虽然只有二十多公里路，但是由于是土路，又是山路，所以车队足足开了两个小时，像一串蜗牛在慢慢蜿蜒。
土路沿着一条清澈的河流，向着山谷深处蔓延，似乎永远也没有尽头。沿途有三个藏族的自然村落。寺庙活佛的车开在最前面。当第一个村子出现在视野时，漫山遍野，出现了众多插满彩旗的摩托车，隆隆的马达声，突如其来地，打破了山谷的寂静。原来，当地的风俗习惯是，每次活佛回寺庙，当地藏民都要到路口来迎接，并且一直护送二十多公里一直到寺庙。只不过以前是骑马，而现在换了现代的交通工具——摩托车。形式可以改变，传统是不能丢弃的。
活佛的车子开过的地方，一队一队的藏民很有秩序地站在路边，捧着哈达迎接。很多藏民不顾身体的年迈，跑步追着活佛的车子，很恭敬地要给活佛钱。我好奇地跑过去看，居然大多数都是一元两元的破烂票子。但是看他们每个人小心翼翼的样子，这很可能是他们所有的现钱了。
法会为期三天，基本上是当地人的一次狂欢节日。每天一大早天刚蒙蒙亮，喇嘛和活佛就开始念经，一般上午九十点钟的样子，正式的法事活动就结束了，狂欢正式开始。所有人轮番在寺庙前的广场上载歌载舞，一直到太阳将近落山才散场。这可是四千米的高原啊，我可是上个二楼都气喘如牛的。
为了众多客人的到来，寺庙里每个房间里都新安装了很多亮亮的灯泡。不知道是否是因为点惯长明灯的缘故，所有的灯居然都没有装开关！我们这些远方来的客人们，每天只好爬上爬下地忙着装卸灯泡。
我的好朋友把她的手机掉在地上了，回头去找，捡到的人无论如何不肯承认。结果，有看到他捡的藏民主动跑来告诉我朋友，说亲眼看到谁谁捡了她的手机，那个人的名字是什么，是哪里来的等等，还抱歉地解释说，那个人是从外面城市里来卖小商品的，不是他们本地人。于是我朋友顺利地要回了她的手机。
在法会期间，不断地有藏民到活佛的房间，请活佛对着他们有病痛的地方吹气，然后就在我的眼前，生龙活虎兴高采烈地离去，像是被医好了！
法会的最后一天，我的帽子挤丢了。上千人的大广场，上哪里去找？虽然是一顶不值钱的帽子，但是在艳阳浓烈的高原，还真是必需品。最不可思议的是，过了一会儿，居然有一个不认识的藏民，拿着我的帽子，跑到我面前，问是否是我的帽子！在那一刻，我真的相信他是菩萨化现的！
昨天晚上，看了美国的记录片《关于宇宙，你不知道的Ｘ》。片子中几乎集中了目前世界上最顶尖的科学家们，用量子物理学、神经学、化学等各个科学领域的最新研究成果告诉我们，这个宇宙一些基本规律。其中包括：时间的可逆性，万物的统一性，精神如何作用于物质等等。我在看的时候想，藏民可能一辈子都听不懂，甚至听不到这些新鲜深奥的名词，但是，千百年来，他们却身体力行地实践着。
《生活时尚》
2007年9月28日 星期五
刚刚在非常偏远的藏区参加了一个藏传佛教的盛大法会。对于一个一直生活在大都市的人来说，最大的收获，就是重新见识了久违了的信仰的力量。
法会开在深山里的一座寺庙。从主要的公路到寺庙，虽然只有二十多公里路，但是由于是土路，又是山路，所以车队足足开了两个小时，像一串蜗牛在慢慢蜿蜒。
土路沿着一条清澈的河流，向着山谷深处蔓延，似乎永远也没有尽头。沿途有三个藏族的自然村落。寺庙活佛的车开在最前面。当第一个村子出现在视野时，漫山遍野，出现了众多插满彩旗的摩托车，隆隆的马达声，突如其来地，打破了山谷的寂静。原来，当地的风俗习惯是，每次活佛回寺庙，当地藏民都要到路口来迎接，并且一直护送二十多公里一直到寺庙。只不过以前是骑马，而现在换了现代的交通工具——摩托车。形式可以改变，传统是不能丢弃的。
活佛的车子开过的地方，一队一队的藏民很有秩序地站在路边，捧着哈达迎接。很多藏民不顾身体的年迈，跑步追着活佛的车子，很恭敬地要给活佛钱。我好奇地跑过去看，居然大多数都是一元两元的破烂票子。但是看他们每个人小心翼翼的样子，这很可能是他们所有的现钱了。
法会为期三天，基本上是当地人的一次狂欢节日。每天一大早天刚蒙蒙亮，喇嘛和活佛就开始念经，一般上午九十点钟的样子，正式的法事活动就结束了，狂欢正式开始。所有人轮番在寺庙前的广场上载歌载舞，一直到太阳将近落山才散场。这可是四千米的高原啊，我可是上个二楼都气喘如牛的。
为了众多客人的到来，寺庙里每个房间里都新安装了很多亮亮的灯泡。不知道是否是因为点惯长明灯的缘故，所有的灯居然都没有装开关！我们这些远方来的客人们，每天只好爬上爬下地忙着装卸灯泡。
我的好朋友把她的手机掉在地上了，回头去找，捡到的人无论如何不肯承认。结果，有看到他捡的藏民主动跑来告诉我朋友，说亲眼看到谁谁捡了她的手机，那个人的名字是什么，是哪里来的等等，还抱歉地解释说，那个人是从外面城市里来卖小商品的，不是他们本地人。于是我朋友顺利地要回了她的手机。
在法会期间，不断地有藏民到活佛的房间，请活佛对着他们有病痛的地方吹气，然后就在我的眼前，生龙活虎兴高采烈地离去，像是被医好了！
法会的最后一天，我的帽子挤丢了。上千人的大广场，上哪里去找？虽然是一顶不值钱的帽子，但是在艳阳浓烈的高原，还真是必需品。最不可思议的是，过了一会儿，居然有一个不认识的藏民，拿着我的帽子，跑到我面前，问是否是我的帽子！在那一刻，我真的相信他是菩萨化现的！
昨天晚上，看了美国的记录片《关于宇宙，你不知道的Ｘ》。片子中几乎集中了目前世界上最顶尖的科学家们，用量子物理学、神经学、化学等各个科学领域的最新研究成果告诉我们，这个宇宙一些基本规律。其中包括：时间的可逆性，万物的统一性，精神如何作用于物质等等。我在看的时候想，藏民可能一辈子都听不懂，甚至听不到这些新鲜深奥的名词，但是，千百年来，他们却身体力行地实践着。
《生活时尚》
Chinese manufacturing
Plenty of blame to go around
Sep 27th 2007 | LONDON AND SHENZHEN
From The Economist print edition
Mattel tries to rescue its relationship with its Chinese suppliers
THE apology was late, reluctant and was no sooner made than it was partly retracted. “Mattel takes full responsibility for these recalls and apologises personally to you, the Chinese people and all of our customers who received the toys,” said Thomas Debrowski, a senior executive at the world's biggest toymaker, which has had to recall 21m toys this year. His words came in a meeting in Beijing on September 21st with Li Changjiang, the chief of China's quality watchdog. But a few hours later Mattel said that the nature of the meeting had been “mischaracterised”. The apology in Beijing was not a kowtow to the Chinese, it said, but merely an elaboration of the apology it had already made to consumers all over the world.
AP
Sorry, sort ofMr Debrowski had not intended to talk to Mr Changjiang in the presence of journalists, but Chinese officials made it a condition for the meeting. After months of what they consider to be unfair accusations of shoddy production, the Chinese felt a public apology was long overdue. On September 5th Mattel had told an American Congressional committee that its recall of 17.4m toys containing a small magnet that could be swallowed by children was due to a flaw in the toys' design, rather than production flaws in China. As for some other toys recalled because of allegedly hazardous levels of lead in their paint, Mattel admitted that it had been overzealous and is likely to have recalled toys that did not contravene American regulations on lead content.
“Mattel has a China problem and a supply-chain problem,” says Jean-Pierre Lehmann, an Asia expert at IMD, a business school in Lausanne. The company is dependent on cheap Chinese production for most of its wares, so it has little bargaining power and can be bounced into an apology. Of the roughly 800m toys Mattel produces every year, more than two-thirds are made in China and about half are made at the company's own plants. The firm says subcontractors have to comply with safety and quality standards specified for each toy. It does not add that it is also up to Mattel to check for compliance and not to be cavalier towards its own rules.
And that is the nub of the problem. Western companies in China are operating in a largely lawless environment. There is hardly any effective regulation and little recourse to law. Yan Jiangying of the State Food and Drug Administration (SFDA) admitted this week that the country's “supervisory foundations are still weak”. In August the government published its first white paper on food safety in the wake of 96 deaths from food poisoning in the first half of the year. With oversight of food safety spread between five different ministries, responsibilities are still murky. The Chinese have no culture of compliance and cut corners on safety and quality when squeezed on price, says Susan Aaronson of the George Washington University School of Business in Washington, DC.
So western firms doing business in China have a responsibility to do their homework and keep a vigilant eye on their suppliers. Buyers of toothpaste or dog food, which have also been subject to safety scares and recalls this year, should have known that more than one-fifth of China's food products failed government safety-tests last year. Corruption, blackmail and counterfeiting are rampant. Eight buyers at Carrefour, a French supermarket chain, are under investigation for accepting kickbacks from suppliers. Zheng Xiaoyu, a former boss of the SFDA, was executed earlier this year for taking bribes to approve fake drugs and certificates claiming that the paint used by Mattel's suppliers was lead-free. Yet many foreign managers working locally say bosses in Europe or America do not understand these problems, or do not want to hear about them.
Chinese firms, for their part, complain that they are bullied by foreign purchasing managers to cut costs. This forces them to squeeze their own suppliers, with unpredictable consequences. Local firms also moan about having to meet the complex logistical demands of foreign customers in a country where such costs are typically 15% higher than in the West, according to Jürgen Kracht at Fiducia, a consultancy.
Mr Lehmann says the Chinese focus on high-volume, low-cost manufacturing has worked well in the initial phase of the country's economic take-off. But producers must now pay more attention to quality, brand development, governance and transparency, he says, or more harm will be done to “Made in China”. Almost 40% of British consumers are less likely to buy Chinese-made toys because of Mattel's recall crisis, according to a YouGov survey commissioned by Marketing Week, a trade publication. Hamleys, a toy shop, says it is thinking about sourcing more toys from Europe. This Christmas is unlikely to be quite as festive as usual for Mattel's managers, suppliers or shareholders.
Sep 27th 2007 | LONDON AND SHENZHEN
From The Economist print edition
Mattel tries to rescue its relationship with its Chinese suppliers
THE apology was late, reluctant and was no sooner made than it was partly retracted. “Mattel takes full responsibility for these recalls and apologises personally to you, the Chinese people and all of our customers who received the toys,” said Thomas Debrowski, a senior executive at the world's biggest toymaker, which has had to recall 21m toys this year. His words came in a meeting in Beijing on September 21st with Li Changjiang, the chief of China's quality watchdog. But a few hours later Mattel said that the nature of the meeting had been “mischaracterised”. The apology in Beijing was not a kowtow to the Chinese, it said, but merely an elaboration of the apology it had already made to consumers all over the world.
AP
Sorry, sort ofMr Debrowski had not intended to talk to Mr Changjiang in the presence of journalists, but Chinese officials made it a condition for the meeting. After months of what they consider to be unfair accusations of shoddy production, the Chinese felt a public apology was long overdue. On September 5th Mattel had told an American Congressional committee that its recall of 17.4m toys containing a small magnet that could be swallowed by children was due to a flaw in the toys' design, rather than production flaws in China. As for some other toys recalled because of allegedly hazardous levels of lead in their paint, Mattel admitted that it had been overzealous and is likely to have recalled toys that did not contravene American regulations on lead content.
“Mattel has a China problem and a supply-chain problem,” says Jean-Pierre Lehmann, an Asia expert at IMD, a business school in Lausanne. The company is dependent on cheap Chinese production for most of its wares, so it has little bargaining power and can be bounced into an apology. Of the roughly 800m toys Mattel produces every year, more than two-thirds are made in China and about half are made at the company's own plants. The firm says subcontractors have to comply with safety and quality standards specified for each toy. It does not add that it is also up to Mattel to check for compliance and not to be cavalier towards its own rules.
And that is the nub of the problem. Western companies in China are operating in a largely lawless environment. There is hardly any effective regulation and little recourse to law. Yan Jiangying of the State Food and Drug Administration (SFDA) admitted this week that the country's “supervisory foundations are still weak”. In August the government published its first white paper on food safety in the wake of 96 deaths from food poisoning in the first half of the year. With oversight of food safety spread between five different ministries, responsibilities are still murky. The Chinese have no culture of compliance and cut corners on safety and quality when squeezed on price, says Susan Aaronson of the George Washington University School of Business in Washington, DC.
So western firms doing business in China have a responsibility to do their homework and keep a vigilant eye on their suppliers. Buyers of toothpaste or dog food, which have also been subject to safety scares and recalls this year, should have known that more than one-fifth of China's food products failed government safety-tests last year. Corruption, blackmail and counterfeiting are rampant. Eight buyers at Carrefour, a French supermarket chain, are under investigation for accepting kickbacks from suppliers. Zheng Xiaoyu, a former boss of the SFDA, was executed earlier this year for taking bribes to approve fake drugs and certificates claiming that the paint used by Mattel's suppliers was lead-free. Yet many foreign managers working locally say bosses in Europe or America do not understand these problems, or do not want to hear about them.
Chinese firms, for their part, complain that they are bullied by foreign purchasing managers to cut costs. This forces them to squeeze their own suppliers, with unpredictable consequences. Local firms also moan about having to meet the complex logistical demands of foreign customers in a country where such costs are typically 15% higher than in the West, according to Jürgen Kracht at Fiducia, a consultancy.
Mr Lehmann says the Chinese focus on high-volume, low-cost manufacturing has worked well in the initial phase of the country's economic take-off. But producers must now pay more attention to quality, brand development, governance and transparency, he says, or more harm will be done to “Made in China”. Almost 40% of British consumers are less likely to buy Chinese-made toys because of Mattel's recall crisis, according to a YouGov survey commissioned by Marketing Week, a trade publication. Hamleys, a toy shop, says it is thinking about sourcing more toys from Europe. This Christmas is unlikely to be quite as festive as usual for Mattel's managers, suppliers or shareholders.
Stronger China
Sep 27th 2007
From The Economist print edition
Thanks to China, an American recession need not cause the whole world to crash
Illustration by Bill ButcherECONOMISTS have long warned that the world economy could not fly for ever on the single engine of American demand. A one-engined plane is more likely to crash. With its housing market blighted and its consumers growing fearful, America now faces a mounting risk of recession. The good news, however, is that the world has found some powerful new engines in China and other emerging economies. Even as credit markets seize up, a world economy that is less dependent on the United States is more likely to stay aloft.
The power of this new motor is startling. For several years, emerging Asian economies have accounted for more of global GDP growth than America has. This year China alone will for the first time accomplish the same feat all on its own (at market exchange rates), even if American growth holds up. American consumer spending is roughly four times the size of China's and India's combined, but what matters for global growth is the extra dollars of spending generated each year. In the first half of 2007 the increase in consumer spending (in actual dollar terms) in China and India together contributed more to global GDP growth than the increase in America did.
Of course, this silver lining has its cloud. A sharp slowdown in China now would have much nastier global consequences than in the past, and the Chinese economy has weaknesses. But it does not look like getting into trouble over the next couple of years (see article)—the period in which America looks as though it may be feeble. If China can keep flying high, it will help keep the world economy safe.
Of course, if America suffers a recession, then Asia's exports will weaken. But this should not hurt GDP growth too much because other factors should help offset the weakening. It helps that China and most other Asian emerging economies are now exporting more to the European Union than to America. China's exports to other emerging economies are growing even faster. It helps, too, that domestic spending has strengthened and is likely to stay strong: China, along with most of the rest of Asia, is one of few parts of the world without a housing bubble.
If emerging Asian economies start to look weak, their governments have some scope to strengthen them. Most, with the exception of India, have small budget deficits; some even have surpluses. So if exports collapse, governments also have ample scope to boost domestic demand.
Commodity prices, too, will continue to feel the effect of the emerging economies' increased importance. It is commonly assumed that an American recession would cause a sharp fall in the prices of oil and other commodities. But emerging Asia accounted for two-thirds of the increase in world energy demand over the past five years. So if Asia remains strong, commodity prices should too, and commodity-producing emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia and the Middle East will also continue to thrive.
Steady on
Emerging Asia cannot pick up all the slack if America goes into recession. Average world growth will slow—and, arguably, it needs to. But Asia can help to keep the world chugging along. Indeed, a modest slowing in the American economy could even help Asia in the long run if it forces governments to switch the mix of growth from exports to consumption and so make their future growth more sustainable.
Not so long ago, the rich world used to regard emerging economies as risky and unstable. That view needs to change: emerging economies now look like a force for stabilising the world economy.
From The Economist print edition
Thanks to China, an American recession need not cause the whole world to crash
Illustration by Bill ButcherECONOMISTS have long warned that the world economy could not fly for ever on the single engine of American demand. A one-engined plane is more likely to crash. With its housing market blighted and its consumers growing fearful, America now faces a mounting risk of recession. The good news, however, is that the world has found some powerful new engines in China and other emerging economies. Even as credit markets seize up, a world economy that is less dependent on the United States is more likely to stay aloft.
The power of this new motor is startling. For several years, emerging Asian economies have accounted for more of global GDP growth than America has. This year China alone will for the first time accomplish the same feat all on its own (at market exchange rates), even if American growth holds up. American consumer spending is roughly four times the size of China's and India's combined, but what matters for global growth is the extra dollars of spending generated each year. In the first half of 2007 the increase in consumer spending (in actual dollar terms) in China and India together contributed more to global GDP growth than the increase in America did.
Of course, this silver lining has its cloud. A sharp slowdown in China now would have much nastier global consequences than in the past, and the Chinese economy has weaknesses. But it does not look like getting into trouble over the next couple of years (see article)—the period in which America looks as though it may be feeble. If China can keep flying high, it will help keep the world economy safe.
Of course, if America suffers a recession, then Asia's exports will weaken. But this should not hurt GDP growth too much because other factors should help offset the weakening. It helps that China and most other Asian emerging economies are now exporting more to the European Union than to America. China's exports to other emerging economies are growing even faster. It helps, too, that domestic spending has strengthened and is likely to stay strong: China, along with most of the rest of Asia, is one of few parts of the world without a housing bubble.
If emerging Asian economies start to look weak, their governments have some scope to strengthen them. Most, with the exception of India, have small budget deficits; some even have surpluses. So if exports collapse, governments also have ample scope to boost domestic demand.
Commodity prices, too, will continue to feel the effect of the emerging economies' increased importance. It is commonly assumed that an American recession would cause a sharp fall in the prices of oil and other commodities. But emerging Asia accounted for two-thirds of the increase in world energy demand over the past five years. So if Asia remains strong, commodity prices should too, and commodity-producing emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia and the Middle East will also continue to thrive.
Steady on
Emerging Asia cannot pick up all the slack if America goes into recession. Average world growth will slow—and, arguably, it needs to. But Asia can help to keep the world chugging along. Indeed, a modest slowing in the American economy could even help Asia in the long run if it forces governments to switch the mix of growth from exports to consumption and so make their future growth more sustainable.
Not so long ago, the rich world used to regard emerging economies as risky and unstable. That view needs to change: emerging economies now look like a force for stabilising the world economy.
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