作者：英国《金融时报》撰稿人朱莉•迈尔森(Julie Myerson)
2007年10月8日 星期一
当我们第一次把3个孩子带到纽约时，他们就像到了天堂。这3个孩子分别是8岁、6岁和5岁。如果不算是真正的天堂，那么他们也肯定认为落入了《蜘蛛侠》(Spiderman)动画片的世界。由于不太适应时差，他们在出租车里睡着了，在凌晨两点向我要百吉饼吃，一路打打闹闹着登上了帝国大厦顶层。
孩子们的兴趣点
有时候，我丈夫乔纳森(Jonathan)和我确实怀疑过，整件事是否真的值得付出这番努力。他们可能只是像在乐高乐园(Legoland)那样快乐（和更为清醒）吗？然而，多年后，3个孩子对那次旅行很是感叹。精彩的部分？玩具卖场FAO Schwarz里可爱的美洲豹，“人行道上冒起的烟尘”以及在Madison Avenue一顿非常平常的午餐吃的那个非常平常的比萨饼，但他们仍能带着两眼朦胧的恐惧记起之后的海葱午餐。
这是10年前的事情了。如今，当年那些狼吞虎咽吃比萨的小孩子们已经长高，脸上长满了粉刺，他们不会轻易被感动。这次我们是与两个较小的孩子一起去的：16岁半的克洛艾(Chlo?)和15岁的拉斐尔(Raphael)。很明显，在纽约肥皂剧的持续熏陶下，这些穿着怪异的聪明孩子们认为，他们已经了解了在曼哈顿应该知道的所有一切。当听到酒店关门的消息后，拉斐尔热情洋溢的说：“我要在夜里去中央公园散步。”（我们告诉他：“不行，你最好别去！”）克洛艾叹息道：“我只是想去West Village吹吹风。”
在看了7个小时的电影和服下大剂量的晕车药后，我们抵达了肯尼迪机场(JFK)。“喔！”克洛艾甚至似乎对接受护照检查的队伍大为兴奋，“这一切都如此——美国化。”如果护照检查令人印象深刻——穿制服的员工实际上在微笑——，那么我们所住的酒店Columbus Circle 的文华东方酒店(Mandarin Oriental)也是如此。以前，我们从未在摩天大楼里睡着过。前台在35层，我们的房间在54层。卧室的窗户是落地窗，曼哈顿隐约浮现在脚下，就像是一部变幻莫测的黑白电影。
眼前的美景让我眩晕，我站在窗户前开始更衣。乔纳森说：“你真要裸体吗？”他指出就在对面也有一幢摩天大楼。我笑了。在这样虚幻的高度之上，我和我的裸体好像真的都不存在了。
然而，孩子们房间的Xbox确实存在，还有那超级热心的服务员，特别是一位叫肯(Ken)的服务员。肯无所不知——没有什么难得住他。“你喜欢看棒球赛？哦，是的。那么你想坐在哪？噢。你不知道棒球规则？好，让我解释给你听……”
逛街经历
我想说，我的孩子们来到纽约，是想坐上Staten Island游船、参观古根海姆博物馆(Guggenheim)和现代艺术博物馆(Museum of Modern Art)，并有机会领略真正的曼哈顿风情。实际上，他们是来这里购物的。第一天早晨，在Broome Street的Café Café吃过健康的令人失望的法国面包（天哪，搭配新鲜水果）后，他们开始在Canal Street逛街。在这里，拉斐尔立刻购买了一副3美元的太阳镜，3个小时后就坏了，因为在这里找不到销售唱片的地方，克洛艾显得气急败坏。“你说过，Canal Street不错。其实不是。这里是宰客的地方。”
我们努力跟他解释，一个不知名的外国城市的全部意义——即便你只是在做一些像购物这样简单的事情——在于，你不会知道好地方在哪里，直到你找到他们。这就是乐趣，这就是度假——你永远不知道你会在街角遇到什么令人惊讶的事情。“什么街角？”拉斐尔好奇地问。
幸运的是，Bleecker Street的咖啡店和破旧的唱片店让克洛艾高兴了许多。但那天早晨的大发现是百老汇(Broadway)上的Yellow Rat Bastard，3个喧闹漆黑的地下卖场，满是孩子们渴望的服装，美式且廉价。
我告诉他们：“等到你看到市区这家名为Century 21的商店就停下脚步。”这里是当地朋友极力推荐的打折服装仓库。我们跳上出租车（对于4个人而言，出租比地铁便宜）我没有告诉他们，那间店就在Ground Zero隔壁。
所有人都说过：“这里确实就是一个建筑工地。”但实际上并非如此。确实不是这样。甚至当我在这个平平常常的早晨走近它，走上这些安静而平常的街道时，我的心就开始怦怦跳。我们不可能不去想我们在电视上看到的那些浓烟和奔跑的人群。我们沉默地浏览了一下长长的遇难者名单，注视着这片空旷的场所，如今这里已被建筑工人和起重机填满。
我问孩子们：“你们还记得我们上次去世贸中心的时候吗？”拉斐尔摇了摇头。
克洛艾告诉他：“你买了一件Biker MiceT恤衫。”
“我不记得当时我说我们是在哪幢楼会面的，我丢了你们近一个小时，最后，那位可爱的商店服务员记得你们的样子，帮我找到了你们。”
拉斐尔说：“她现在可能已经过世了。”我们又看了一眼遇难者名单。
只有跟孩子们一起，你才能如此迅速的从Ground Zero跑到一家打折商店。但我们做到了。Century 21商品便宜，但里面喧哗且令人疲倦，也是一场赌博，不知道他们是否有我们需要的尺寸，最后我们什么都没买。
我们走进了West Village的一家咖啡店，乔纳森和我吃沙拉，而孩子们则径直走向油炸食品。
拉斐尔问：“我可以点一些炸薯条，与沙拉一起吃吗？”他看人和说话的口气都开始像美国人了。
后来，一位在纽约的朋友带我们与她的两个小孩在Riverside Park散步。“这是真正的公园，”她告诉不太相信的拉斐尔说，“中央公园更多的是为游客们准备的。”
他满怀信心的问她：“你会在这里遭到抢劫吗？”
一阵冷风从哈得孙河吹来，我们避开玩滑轮的人们，把她最小的儿子从速度飞快的骑车者中间推开。他很满意，但我的孩子们却受到了惊吓。“我很好，”当我建议她需要吃点什么时，克洛艾说道，“我想熬一宿。”
真正的参观
我们决定参观一些真正的景观（克洛艾说：“我希望回到Bleecker Street Records。”），我们走到了炮台公园(Battery Park)，登上一艘渡轮，参观爱利斯岛博物馆(Ellis Island Museum)，却看到了长长的队伍。“我们应该先问问肯，”我们都叹息着，我们想象着肯如何为我们解决这个问题。通过行贿让我们走到队伍前边？将爱利斯岛迁移到离我们酒店近一些的地方？
然而，克洛艾和拉斐尔想在一家小餐馆快速吃一顿午餐。接着他们在SoHo自己买了一些东西。拉斐尔问道：“然后我们可以去宠物动物园了吗？”
“去哪？！”
“宠物动物园。它在中央公园。里面有北极熊。”
“让我们去吧，”克洛艾说道，“那里比爱利斯岛要好。”因此他们去了宠物动物园，我们则去了萨克斯第五大道(Saks)。他们还独自（两人一起）乘坐了地铁，并成功返回了酒店。
我们慢悠悠的踱步回到了第五大道，我们沐浴着灿烂阳光，沿着绿树掩映的中央公园外围散步。空气如此充满曼哈顿特色——马粪（所有四轮马车的马儿们都在吃着一桶桶的燕麦）、热狗，还有温热的尿液气味从每个人行道上的格栅中传来。
“我喜欢曼哈顿的组合方式，”拉斐尔随后说道，“格栅系统。我喜欢这里一切都容易找到。”
克洛艾叹了口气：“我喜欢这里的配菜。”
“配菜？”
“我的意思是，我喜欢他们每道菜都搭配巧克力奶和薯条。”
“它们不是配菜，”拉斐尔指出，“只是你总是会点这些东西。”
然后我们观看了一场棒球赛。我们乘地铁到达了Shea Stadium，然后（就象电影中一样），孩子们不停得穿梭于那些提供各种配菜的人群。我们不知道实际的赛况，乔纳森不得不抑制住了将所有元素都不合适宜地与板球相比的愿望。
然而，我们等到了我们所期待的那一刻：一位之前作为候补队员的击球员在最后一局出场，观众突然一起站起身，生气地辱骂起来。这是土生土长的纽约人，尽管我们不知道这个可怜的球员到底哪里做错了，但我们还是热情洋溢的同他们一起尖叫着“欺骗”、“兴奋剂”、“无耻”。
如何带青少年去纽约：
对于青少年要记住的一点是，他们不知道他们想要什么。就像蹒跚学步的孩子一样。一个很大的不同点——也是很难与他们同游的原因——在于，他们认为他们可以做。因此你需要让他们认为，他们正做出所有的选择和决定。
1 教他们乘坐地铁，然后深吸一口气，让他们去做。你可以休息，他们可以得到独立和真正的旅游感觉。
2 提前考察哪里卖好的唱片、CD或难看的服装。青少年不喜欢在大热天被拉出去逛，但他们渴望购物。我们希望能让他们在百老汇自由购物，那里有Yellow Rat Bastard（百老汇478号）以及类似的商店。在那里，他们就像是到了天堂，可以轻易在那里呆上一天。
3 美国食品可以成为理想的青少年食品。份餐、薯条、沙司，而且份量很大。我们去了几个不错的地方吃早餐，Café Café（Broome Street 470号）供应健康的牛奶什锦套餐；如果你希望获得真正光彩夺目的美国大餐享受，Florent（Gansevoort Street 69号）是个不错的著名去处。然而，实际上，那些极为便宜的小餐馆也一样令孩子们兴奋。
4 时差会伴随你左右。在纽约，孩子们醒来的时间会提前。甚至在上午10点前让他们走出酒店都是可能的。
5 要适应这一现实：即便他们来到一个新的国度，那里有许多激动人心的新鲜经历等待着他们，但他们仍要花大量时间看电视。是的，美国电视就希望他们呆在家里看电视。你必须在参观古根海姆博物馆和再看一集他们已看了上百遍的《辛普森一家》(Simpsons)中间进行选择，不要因为他们选择后者就太过失望。
朱莉•迈尔森是英国《金融时报》家庭生活专栏作家，也是《Home: The Story of Everyone Who Ever Lived in Our House》（Harper Perennial出版社出版）的作者。她是文华东方酒店和旅游公司Carrier的客人。价格为每间客房1119英镑，包括3晚住宿，回程航班为英国航空(BA)World Traveller级别经济舱，并配有专车服务。有效期为2007年9月11日至11月30日。
电话：+44 (0)161-491 7640；www.carrier.co.uk
译者/梁艳裳
2007年10月6日星期六
Erkältung
Das kennt jeder: Erst fühlt man sich schlapp, dann fängt es im Hals an zu kratzen, schließlich läuft die Nase und es brummt einem der Schädel. Kurzum: Eine Erkältung kündigt sich an. In den Herbst- und Wintermonaten tritt sie besonders häufig auf. Ein Erwachsener steckt sich durchschnittlich zwei bis viermal im Jahr an, Kleinkinder sind mit bis zu 13-mal im Jahr am häufigsten betroffen. Rund 200 Erkältungen machen wir durchschnittlich im Laufe unseres Lebens durch. Das Immunsystem wird mit dem Infekt in der Regel zwar leicht fertig, lästig sind die typischen Symptome wie Husten und Schnupfen aber allemal.
Die Erkältung oder auch der grippale Infekt - nicht zu verwechseln mit der deutlich schwereren echten Grippe (Influenza) - ist eine akute Infektion der oberen Atemwege, die meist von Viren, manchmal zusätzlich auch von Bakterien verursacht wird. Insgesamt gibt es mehr als 100 Viren, die eine Erkältung auslösen können. Die Krankheitserreger werden sowohl über eine Tröpfcheninfektion durch die Luft als auch direkt oder indirekt durch Kontakt mit Erkrankten oder über kontaminierte Gegenstände in der Umgebung übertragen.
Von der Ansteckung bis zum Ausbruch der Krankheit vergehen zwei bis fünf Tage. Zuerst befallen die Viren die Nasen- und Rachenschleimhaut. Von dort können sie auf die Bronchien oder Nasennebenhöhlen übergreifen.
Erkältungsviren überleben auf der Hautoberfläche mehrere Stunden. Deshalb sollte man sich nach jedem Naseputzen gründlich die Hände waschen. Meist klingt die Erkältung nach einer Woche ab.
Es ist nicht abschließend geklärt, inwieweit Kälte für das Entstehen eines grippalen Infekts verantwortlich ist. Insgesamt jedoch begünstigen die Bedingungen in Herbst und Winter den Einfall der Viren. Die Schleimhäute werden durch den großen Temperaturunterschied zwischen drinnen und draußen belastet. Man hält sich weniger an der frischen Luft auf, geht man doch einmal vor die Tür, lässt nicht selten ungenügende Kleidung den Körper zu sehr auskühlen. All das kann zu Lasten des Immunsystems gehen. Sind die Abwehrkräfte einmal geschwächt, haben die Krankheitserreger leichtes Spiel.
Die Behandlung einer Erkältung besteht vor allem darin, dem Körper Ruhe zu gönnen und sich in warmen, nicht überheizten Räumen aufzuhalten. Außerdem sollte man viel trinken, um den Schleim flüssig zu halten und den Flüssigkeitsverlust auszugleichen. Ratsam sind Wasser, Fruchtsäfte oder Tee. Darüber hinaus gilt natürlich striktes Rauchverbot und am besten schont man auch seine Stimme.
Die Erkältung oder auch der grippale Infekt - nicht zu verwechseln mit der deutlich schwereren echten Grippe (Influenza) - ist eine akute Infektion der oberen Atemwege, die meist von Viren, manchmal zusätzlich auch von Bakterien verursacht wird. Insgesamt gibt es mehr als 100 Viren, die eine Erkältung auslösen können. Die Krankheitserreger werden sowohl über eine Tröpfcheninfektion durch die Luft als auch direkt oder indirekt durch Kontakt mit Erkrankten oder über kontaminierte Gegenstände in der Umgebung übertragen.
Von der Ansteckung bis zum Ausbruch der Krankheit vergehen zwei bis fünf Tage. Zuerst befallen die Viren die Nasen- und Rachenschleimhaut. Von dort können sie auf die Bronchien oder Nasennebenhöhlen übergreifen.
Erkältungsviren überleben auf der Hautoberfläche mehrere Stunden. Deshalb sollte man sich nach jedem Naseputzen gründlich die Hände waschen. Meist klingt die Erkältung nach einer Woche ab.
Es ist nicht abschließend geklärt, inwieweit Kälte für das Entstehen eines grippalen Infekts verantwortlich ist. Insgesamt jedoch begünstigen die Bedingungen in Herbst und Winter den Einfall der Viren. Die Schleimhäute werden durch den großen Temperaturunterschied zwischen drinnen und draußen belastet. Man hält sich weniger an der frischen Luft auf, geht man doch einmal vor die Tür, lässt nicht selten ungenügende Kleidung den Körper zu sehr auskühlen. All das kann zu Lasten des Immunsystems gehen. Sind die Abwehrkräfte einmal geschwächt, haben die Krankheitserreger leichtes Spiel.
Die Behandlung einer Erkältung besteht vor allem darin, dem Körper Ruhe zu gönnen und sich in warmen, nicht überheizten Räumen aufzuhalten. Außerdem sollte man viel trinken, um den Schleim flüssig zu halten und den Flüssigkeitsverlust auszugleichen. Ratsam sind Wasser, Fruchtsäfte oder Tee. Darüber hinaus gilt natürlich striktes Rauchverbot und am besten schont man auch seine Stimme.
2007年10月5日星期五
Doing business
Oct 4th 2007
From The Economist print edition
Singapore retained its ranking as the easiest place to do business in the World Bank's “Doing Business 2008” report, the fifth in an annual series. The rankings are based on ten quantitative measures of the regulatory environment for private firms. Egypt showed the biggest improvement compared with the last survey, advancing in five of the areas covered. A business can spring to life more quickly there than in Italy. Many of the countries making the greatest strides are in eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. Ghana, Colombia, Saudi Arabia, Kenya and China are also among the top ten reformers. Congo, where it takes 155 days to get a business up and running, is the lowest ranked country in the survey.
IFC News » Doing Business 2008: Making a Difference
Doing Business 2008: Making a Difference
Starting a business is not easy in the Democratic Republic of Congo. It takes 13 procedures and 155 days—and it costs five times the annual income per capita. The situation is even worse for women: they need the consent of a husband. And if you are a single woman, a judge decides whether you can become a businesswoman.
The result: Only 18 percent of small businesses are run by women in the DRC. Next door, in Rwanda, which has no such regulations, women run more than 41 percent of small businesses.
But many countries are making it easier to do business. The Doing Business 2008 report identifies 200 reforms in 98 countries between April 2006 and June 2007.
The top reformer was Egypt. Unhappy with its Doing Business ranking last year, the Egyptian government pulled out all stops. Its efforts cut deep—with reforms in five of the 10 areas studied by the report. It made the single fastest climb in the overall rankings on the ease of doing business.
Georgia, the top reformer last year, remains in the top 10 and continues to target better rankings each year. Its efforts are paying off: Georgia is now in the top 25 countries in overall rankings for the ease of doing business. Two African countries—Ghana and Kenya—also made this year's list of the top 10 reformers.
"Overall, Doing Business has had a powerful catalytic effect," says Simeon Djankov, the lead author of the report. "For example, in the past two years, we have recorded 413 reforms in the countries we study. We have been able to confirm at least 113 instances where Doing Business inspired or informed business regulatory reforms worldwide."
The Financial Times has noted that in publishing Doing Business, the World Bank Group is "producing a public good: measurements of regulatory performance that may become as indispensable to reformers and academics as national income accounts."
Business startup and investor returns
Doing Business 2008 finds that large emerging markets are reforming fast, with the potential to benefit hundreds of millions of people. Egypt, China, India, Indonesia, Turkey, and Vietnam all improved in the ease of doing business.
Doing Business is also analyzing the benefits of reform. "The report shows equity returns are highest in countries that are reforming the most," said Michael Klein, World Bank/IFC Vice President for Financial and Private Sector Development. "Investors are looking for upside potential, and they find it in economies that are reforming—regardless of their starting point," he added.
By far the fastest reforms are in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, which, as a region, surpassed East Asia this year in the ease of doing business. Estonia, the most business-friendly country of the former socialist bloc, ranks 17th on the ease of doing business. "The results show that as governments ease regulations for doing business, more entrepreneurs go into business," said Djankov. "Eastern Europe has witnessed a boom in new business entry, and many of the new companies are becoming global leaders, such as the Estonian-born software company Skype and the Czech car maker Skoda," he added.
Reforming business regulations benefits women
Doing Business is about studying obstacles to equal opportunity, and this year it began to look at this issue as it affects women. Initial findings indicate that higher rankings on the ease of doing business are associated with higher percentages of women among entrepreneurs and employees. Greater regulatory reform has especially large benefits for women, who often face regulations that may be aimed at protecting them but are counterproductive in effect, forcing them into the informal sector. There women have little job security and few social benefits.
The Doing Business project has committed to a two-year research program on reforms that improve the job and business opportunities for women.
Hitting the road
Doing Business does a simple but powerful thing: it systematically and objectively measures the time and cost involved in setting up, running, and closing a business in 178 countries around the world. With the publishing of the new report, the Doing Business team kicks off its annual road show visiting dozens of countries—and may be coming to a place near you.
Visit the Web site for more information on the project, to order copies of Doing Business 2008, and to generate your own reports using the latest Doing Business data: www.doingbusiness.org.
About Doing Business
A high ranking on the ease of doing business means that a government has created a regulatory environment conducive to operating a business, yet the rankings do not tell the whole story. They do not account for other factors such as the quality of infrastructure services, macroeconomic policy, proximity to large markets, or law and order.
A joint IFC-World Bank product, Doing Business is based on the efforts of more than 5,000 local experts around the world—business consultants, lawyers, accountants, government officials, and leading academics—who provide empirical input and methodological support and review.
For more information contact:
Karina Manasseh
Communications Officer
Phone: (202) 458-0434
E-mail: kmanasseh@ifc.org
From The Economist print edition
Singapore retained its ranking as the easiest place to do business in the World Bank's “Doing Business 2008” report, the fifth in an annual series. The rankings are based on ten quantitative measures of the regulatory environment for private firms. Egypt showed the biggest improvement compared with the last survey, advancing in five of the areas covered. A business can spring to life more quickly there than in Italy. Many of the countries making the greatest strides are in eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. Ghana, Colombia, Saudi Arabia, Kenya and China are also among the top ten reformers. Congo, where it takes 155 days to get a business up and running, is the lowest ranked country in the survey.
IFC News » Doing Business 2008: Making a Difference
Doing Business 2008: Making a Difference
Starting a business is not easy in the Democratic Republic of Congo. It takes 13 procedures and 155 days—and it costs five times the annual income per capita. The situation is even worse for women: they need the consent of a husband. And if you are a single woman, a judge decides whether you can become a businesswoman.
The result: Only 18 percent of small businesses are run by women in the DRC. Next door, in Rwanda, which has no such regulations, women run more than 41 percent of small businesses.
But many countries are making it easier to do business. The Doing Business 2008 report identifies 200 reforms in 98 countries between April 2006 and June 2007.
The top reformer was Egypt. Unhappy with its Doing Business ranking last year, the Egyptian government pulled out all stops. Its efforts cut deep—with reforms in five of the 10 areas studied by the report. It made the single fastest climb in the overall rankings on the ease of doing business.
Georgia, the top reformer last year, remains in the top 10 and continues to target better rankings each year. Its efforts are paying off: Georgia is now in the top 25 countries in overall rankings for the ease of doing business. Two African countries—Ghana and Kenya—also made this year's list of the top 10 reformers.
"Overall, Doing Business has had a powerful catalytic effect," says Simeon Djankov, the lead author of the report. "For example, in the past two years, we have recorded 413 reforms in the countries we study. We have been able to confirm at least 113 instances where Doing Business inspired or informed business regulatory reforms worldwide."
The Financial Times has noted that in publishing Doing Business, the World Bank Group is "producing a public good: measurements of regulatory performance that may become as indispensable to reformers and academics as national income accounts."
Business startup and investor returns
Doing Business 2008 finds that large emerging markets are reforming fast, with the potential to benefit hundreds of millions of people. Egypt, China, India, Indonesia, Turkey, and Vietnam all improved in the ease of doing business.
Doing Business is also analyzing the benefits of reform. "The report shows equity returns are highest in countries that are reforming the most," said Michael Klein, World Bank/IFC Vice President for Financial and Private Sector Development. "Investors are looking for upside potential, and they find it in economies that are reforming—regardless of their starting point," he added.
By far the fastest reforms are in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, which, as a region, surpassed East Asia this year in the ease of doing business. Estonia, the most business-friendly country of the former socialist bloc, ranks 17th on the ease of doing business. "The results show that as governments ease regulations for doing business, more entrepreneurs go into business," said Djankov. "Eastern Europe has witnessed a boom in new business entry, and many of the new companies are becoming global leaders, such as the Estonian-born software company Skype and the Czech car maker Skoda," he added.
Reforming business regulations benefits women
Doing Business is about studying obstacles to equal opportunity, and this year it began to look at this issue as it affects women. Initial findings indicate that higher rankings on the ease of doing business are associated with higher percentages of women among entrepreneurs and employees. Greater regulatory reform has especially large benefits for women, who often face regulations that may be aimed at protecting them but are counterproductive in effect, forcing them into the informal sector. There women have little job security and few social benefits.
The Doing Business project has committed to a two-year research program on reforms that improve the job and business opportunities for women.
Hitting the road
Doing Business does a simple but powerful thing: it systematically and objectively measures the time and cost involved in setting up, running, and closing a business in 178 countries around the world. With the publishing of the new report, the Doing Business team kicks off its annual road show visiting dozens of countries—and may be coming to a place near you.
Visit the Web site for more information on the project, to order copies of Doing Business 2008, and to generate your own reports using the latest Doing Business data: www.doingbusiness.org.
About Doing Business
A high ranking on the ease of doing business means that a government has created a regulatory environment conducive to operating a business, yet the rankings do not tell the whole story. They do not account for other factors such as the quality of infrastructure services, macroeconomic policy, proximity to large markets, or law and order.
A joint IFC-World Bank product, Doing Business is based on the efforts of more than 5,000 local experts around the world—business consultants, lawyers, accountants, government officials, and leading academics—who provide empirical input and methodological support and review.
For more information contact:
Karina Manasseh
Communications Officer
Phone: (202) 458-0434
E-mail: kmanasseh@ifc.org
Blundering into battle with China
The Korean war
Oct 4th 2007
From The Economist print edition
SOME old men keep in a half-forgotten file their medal, inscribed with bureaucratic precision: “For service in defence of the principles of the charter of the United Nations”. That was always humbug. The Korean war was an American venture intended to contain the newly victorious Chinese government of Mao Zedong, believed, quite wrongly, to be Moscow's puppet. David Halberstam was too reliable a story-teller to pretend otherwise.
His huge, sadly posthumous book spares just one sentence for the manoeuvre whereby the American delegation whisked the necessary resolution through the UN machine when a brief boycott by Stalin's delegation prevented it from applying its veto. He writes of “UN forces”, barely mentioning those that were not American, and skips through the last two years of static conflict in a couple of pages. His accounts of battles are vivid enough, but exist mainly to add conviction to his central proposition.
His real interest is the sequence of decisions by which America provoked China's intervention and missed chances to end the fighting. The central figure, and villain, is the supreme commander in Tokyo, General Douglas MacArthur. Earlier, MacArthur had brilliantly conducted the war in the Pacific and laid the foundations for the Japanese to build their astonishing state. But, old, stubborn and racially contemptuous of his adversaries, he aligned himself with Washington's “China lobby” and with Chiang Kai-shek's just-defeated nationalist regime. His strategic intelligence was compiled by a fantasist. And he despised his political masters to the point where he refused to salute his commander-in-chief, President Harry Truman.
Mr Halberstam believes that MacArthur, backed by Republican politicians, challenged the constitutional arrangements for civil supremacy that Abraham Lincoln had affirmed during the civil war. The constitution, in its incarnation as Truman, eventually won, and another wartime general, the admirable Dwight Eisenhower, nailed down this victory.
When MacArthur's strategic blunders brought China into the war, the Americans, overwhelmingly superior in technology, armament and logistics, were routed. They clawed their way back, but only to stalemate. The Chinese had no aircraft (Stalin, sensibly enough, had broken his promise to provide them), only such heavy artillery as the retreating Americans abandoned to them and no portable radios to co-ordinate their infantry. At one point, Mr Halberstam claims, their 300,000 men were almost starving, with only 300 trucks for food and ammunition.
But America's soldiers, tied to the valley roads by the weight of their gear and not trained to march, were victims of an enemy that could climb the hills overlooking their rearguard. The Chinese soldiers, even when their commanding hilltops glowed like cigarette-butts beneath tonnes of blazing napalm, would manhandle their mortars from deep-dug shelters and strike with deadly effect. All lessons from old wars were irrelevant.
Plenty of books tell the story of the Korean war. Mr Halberstam understood what it meant for America. Both sides thought they were fighting to unify a divided peninsula. The strange result of their struggle was to create two nations, one rich, the other mad. The world lives precariously with that. No peace treaty has yet put a formal end to the war.
Oct 4th 2007
From The Economist print edition
SOME old men keep in a half-forgotten file their medal, inscribed with bureaucratic precision: “For service in defence of the principles of the charter of the United Nations”. That was always humbug. The Korean war was an American venture intended to contain the newly victorious Chinese government of Mao Zedong, believed, quite wrongly, to be Moscow's puppet. David Halberstam was too reliable a story-teller to pretend otherwise.
His huge, sadly posthumous book spares just one sentence for the manoeuvre whereby the American delegation whisked the necessary resolution through the UN machine when a brief boycott by Stalin's delegation prevented it from applying its veto. He writes of “UN forces”, barely mentioning those that were not American, and skips through the last two years of static conflict in a couple of pages. His accounts of battles are vivid enough, but exist mainly to add conviction to his central proposition.
His real interest is the sequence of decisions by which America provoked China's intervention and missed chances to end the fighting. The central figure, and villain, is the supreme commander in Tokyo, General Douglas MacArthur. Earlier, MacArthur had brilliantly conducted the war in the Pacific and laid the foundations for the Japanese to build their astonishing state. But, old, stubborn and racially contemptuous of his adversaries, he aligned himself with Washington's “China lobby” and with Chiang Kai-shek's just-defeated nationalist regime. His strategic intelligence was compiled by a fantasist. And he despised his political masters to the point where he refused to salute his commander-in-chief, President Harry Truman.
Mr Halberstam believes that MacArthur, backed by Republican politicians, challenged the constitutional arrangements for civil supremacy that Abraham Lincoln had affirmed during the civil war. The constitution, in its incarnation as Truman, eventually won, and another wartime general, the admirable Dwight Eisenhower, nailed down this victory.
When MacArthur's strategic blunders brought China into the war, the Americans, overwhelmingly superior in technology, armament and logistics, were routed. They clawed their way back, but only to stalemate. The Chinese had no aircraft (Stalin, sensibly enough, had broken his promise to provide them), only such heavy artillery as the retreating Americans abandoned to them and no portable radios to co-ordinate their infantry. At one point, Mr Halberstam claims, their 300,000 men were almost starving, with only 300 trucks for food and ammunition.
But America's soldiers, tied to the valley roads by the weight of their gear and not trained to march, were victims of an enemy that could climb the hills overlooking their rearguard. The Chinese soldiers, even when their commanding hilltops glowed like cigarette-butts beneath tonnes of blazing napalm, would manhandle their mortars from deep-dug shelters and strike with deadly effect. All lessons from old wars were irrelevant.
Plenty of books tell the story of the Korean war. Mr Halberstam understood what it meant for America. Both sides thought they were fighting to unify a divided peninsula. The strange result of their struggle was to create two nations, one rich, the other mad. The world lives precariously with that. No peace treaty has yet put a formal end to the war.
Share prices in China have taken on a life of their own
China's stockmarkets
Rush hour
Oct 4th 2007 | HONG KONG
From The Economist print edition
TRAFFIC jams were not only to be found on the streets of Hong Kong this week. Share-trading systems were also clogged up as investors piled in after a holiday to mark the founding of the People's Republic of China. Mainland markets were closed for the Golden Week, which only seemed to drive more money to Hong Kong. On October 2nd the Hang Seng index closed above 28,000 for the first time, rising 3.9% in one day. Shares of mainland Chinese firms climbed even higher amid talk of heavy buying by institutions in China able to invest in Hong Kong.
A day later prices eased, but the gossip didn't. There were rumours that the Hong Kong stockmarket would attract some of the new $200 billion sovereign-wealth fund created by China's government. An announcement in August that ordinary Chinese would be allowed to invest in Hong Kong has also raised hopes of still more money to come. In China, most industries are caught up in the excitement, but in Hong Kong, shares of mainland firms trade at a discount to those in their home markets. That means arbitrage opportunities abound.
The bull market should make life sweet for securities analysts—at times, too sweet. Citigroup, for example, put a strong buy recommendation on China Resources Land, a property company, in mid-September, saying the share price could appreciate by 20%. Two weeks later, it had. Next big idea?
What if there are none? Certainly at some point rational price-earning assumptions will suggest there is nothing left to buy. Shares on the Chinese bourses have jumped to almost 65 times historic earnings from the 50s a week ago (see chart). Yet there is something suspiciously circular about the valuations because many firms profit from investing in shares. Future expectations, meanwhile, are staggering. The Hong Kong stock exchange trades at 39 times book. The ten-year average is six times.
Even the Chinese government is worried. To cool the markets down, it has imposed transaction taxes and higher interest rates. The management of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange has tried to talk the market down—to no avail. Officials should instead promote better disclosure so that investors can find out what they are buying. Transparency, however, is sensitive in China. Some assume that the Chinese government has too much at stake to let the market fail: the upcoming party congress, for example, or stable conditions ahead of the 2008 Olympics. Foreigners appear to buy that argument. Flow-of-funds data from Citigroup show that they continue to pour money in. Perhaps they think it is crazy to miss out on the madness.
Rush hour
Oct 4th 2007 | HONG KONG
From The Economist print edition
TRAFFIC jams were not only to be found on the streets of Hong Kong this week. Share-trading systems were also clogged up as investors piled in after a holiday to mark the founding of the People's Republic of China. Mainland markets were closed for the Golden Week, which only seemed to drive more money to Hong Kong. On October 2nd the Hang Seng index closed above 28,000 for the first time, rising 3.9% in one day. Shares of mainland Chinese firms climbed even higher amid talk of heavy buying by institutions in China able to invest in Hong Kong.
A day later prices eased, but the gossip didn't. There were rumours that the Hong Kong stockmarket would attract some of the new $200 billion sovereign-wealth fund created by China's government. An announcement in August that ordinary Chinese would be allowed to invest in Hong Kong has also raised hopes of still more money to come. In China, most industries are caught up in the excitement, but in Hong Kong, shares of mainland firms trade at a discount to those in their home markets. That means arbitrage opportunities abound.
The bull market should make life sweet for securities analysts—at times, too sweet. Citigroup, for example, put a strong buy recommendation on China Resources Land, a property company, in mid-September, saying the share price could appreciate by 20%. Two weeks later, it had. Next big idea?
What if there are none? Certainly at some point rational price-earning assumptions will suggest there is nothing left to buy. Shares on the Chinese bourses have jumped to almost 65 times historic earnings from the 50s a week ago (see chart). Yet there is something suspiciously circular about the valuations because many firms profit from investing in shares. Future expectations, meanwhile, are staggering. The Hong Kong stock exchange trades at 39 times book. The ten-year average is six times.
Even the Chinese government is worried. To cool the markets down, it has imposed transaction taxes and higher interest rates. The management of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange has tried to talk the market down—to no avail. Officials should instead promote better disclosure so that investors can find out what they are buying. Transparency, however, is sensitive in China. Some assume that the Chinese government has too much at stake to let the market fail: the upcoming party congress, for example, or stable conditions ahead of the 2008 Olympics. Foreigners appear to buy that argument. Flow-of-funds data from Citigroup show that they continue to pour money in. Perhaps they think it is crazy to miss out on the madness.
Russia slams the door on Chinese car factories
Chinese carmakers
Nyet
Oct 4th 2007 | HONG KONG
From The Economist print edition
THIS week saw two curious announcements concerning Russian cars. First, China's Xinhua news agency reported that Russia's Economic Development and Trade Commission had issued a decree forbidding foreign carmakers from building new plants. The next day Italy's Fiat elaborated plans to do just that, saying it would make 60,000 cars a year at a new factory in the Volga region in partnership with Severstal Auto, a Russian firm. The “decree”, it appears, applies only to manufacturers from China.
Seven Chinese car companies have so far applied for licences in Russia but only one of them, Chery Automobile, has been granted approval. Yet all their big American, European, Japanese and South Korean rivals have got the go-ahead; several are already making cars in Russia. Now there are reports that Russian carmakers are lobbying for Chery's licence to be revoked.
Another Chinese firm, Great Wall, first declared its intention to invest $40m in a plant in the region of Tatarstan 18 months ago. It says it remains in negotiations with the Russian authorities. But according to Xinhua, the decree will force it and the five other Chinese applicants to revisit their plans for Russia.
Part of the explanation may be doubts about the safety of Chinese cars. A video of China's best-selling car in Russia, the $9,000 Chery Amulet, collapsing as if made from cardboard when crash-tested by a Russian magazine has become a favourite on YouTube. Chinese cars have also performed poorly in German safety tests.
But Russia's rebuff may stem as much from Chinese carmakers' successes as from their failings. Until 2005 there were no exports of Chinese cars to Russia at all. This year, 120,000 vehicles are expected to arrive. In a country where 2.1m vehicles were sold last year, the Chinese manufacturers' volumes are still small. But, according to official figures, Chery's sales grew by 580% in the first eight months of 2007, to 24,000. Other foreign brands grew by an average 66%.
“Russia is one of the most promising markets for Great Wall,” Shang Yugui, a spokesman for the company, said this week. Unlike Western carmakers, Chinese ones compete head-on with Russia's indigenous manufacturers on price. That makes them really dangerous.
Nyet
Oct 4th 2007 | HONG KONG
From The Economist print edition
THIS week saw two curious announcements concerning Russian cars. First, China's Xinhua news agency reported that Russia's Economic Development and Trade Commission had issued a decree forbidding foreign carmakers from building new plants. The next day Italy's Fiat elaborated plans to do just that, saying it would make 60,000 cars a year at a new factory in the Volga region in partnership with Severstal Auto, a Russian firm. The “decree”, it appears, applies only to manufacturers from China.
Seven Chinese car companies have so far applied for licences in Russia but only one of them, Chery Automobile, has been granted approval. Yet all their big American, European, Japanese and South Korean rivals have got the go-ahead; several are already making cars in Russia. Now there are reports that Russian carmakers are lobbying for Chery's licence to be revoked.
Another Chinese firm, Great Wall, first declared its intention to invest $40m in a plant in the region of Tatarstan 18 months ago. It says it remains in negotiations with the Russian authorities. But according to Xinhua, the decree will force it and the five other Chinese applicants to revisit their plans for Russia.
Part of the explanation may be doubts about the safety of Chinese cars. A video of China's best-selling car in Russia, the $9,000 Chery Amulet, collapsing as if made from cardboard when crash-tested by a Russian magazine has become a favourite on YouTube. Chinese cars have also performed poorly in German safety tests.
But Russia's rebuff may stem as much from Chinese carmakers' successes as from their failings. Until 2005 there were no exports of Chinese cars to Russia at all. This year, 120,000 vehicles are expected to arrive. In a country where 2.1m vehicles were sold last year, the Chinese manufacturers' volumes are still small. But, according to official figures, Chery's sales grew by 580% in the first eight months of 2007, to 24,000. Other foreign brands grew by an average 66%.
“Russia is one of the most promising markets for Great Wall,” Shang Yugui, a spokesman for the company, said this week. Unlike Western carmakers, Chinese ones compete head-on with Russia's indigenous manufacturers on price. That makes them really dangerous.
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