2007年12月28日星期五

Annäherung zwischen Japan und China

Brückenbauer Fukuda

Japans neuer Premier Yasuo Fukuda verglich vor seiner Abreise nach Peking die Aufnahme diplomatischer Beziehungen 1972 zu China mit dem Bau einer Hängebrücke. Wer die Geschichte zwischen beiden Staaten seit den Gräueltaten des Weltkrieges kennt, weiß, wie wackelig diese erste Verbindung noch war. Sechs Jahre später schlossen Tokio und Peking einen Friedens- und Freundschaftsvertrag. Fukuda nennt ihn eine stählerne Brücke. Weil beide Staaten einen Neuanfang nach ihrer Kriegsgeschichte wagten. Weil 1978 das Jahr war, mit dem Chinas Reformen begannen. Der dritte Grund ist persönlich: Weil Premier Takeo Fukuda, der vor 30 Jahren den Mut zum Deal mit China hatte, sein Vater war. Danach kam es zu einer Reihe von Rückschlägen auf beiden Seiten. Sie waren immer wieder mit der unbewältigten Erinnerung an die Vergangenheit verbunden. Jetzt ist Sohn Fukuda gekommen, um neue Brücken zu bauen. Er nannte nur einen Grund dafür: "Einer kommt nicht mehr ohne den anderen aus." Die Liste ist lang geworden, vom Kampf gegen den Terrorismus bis zum Klimaschutz. Oder beim Handel, wo China seit 2007 für Japan ein größerer Partner als die USA geworden ist. Japan und China brauchen einander. Keiner von beiden will, dass ihre historische Frage von der Straße beantwortet wird. Sie haben Geschichtskommissionen eingesetzt. Japan steckt beim Yasukuni-Schrein zurück. In China geht die Saat eines neuen Denkens auf. Seine gerade würdig begangene Erinnerung an Japans Massaker in Nanking vom Dezember 1937 hat den Besuch Fukudas nicht tangiert. Peking bat ihn für die letzten Tage des alten Jahres zu Gast. Im Blick haben beide die Feier zum 30. Jahrestag des Freundschaftsvertrags, der auf das Olympiajahr 2008 fällt. Die Probleme zwischen beiden Staaten bleiben bestehen. Sie scheinen aber endlich zu begreifen, dass sie nicht umhinkommen, viele Brücken zwischen sich zu bauen.

2007年12月14日星期五

A political spat with China puts German businesses on edge

Germany and China

Broken pottery
Dec 13th 2007 | FRANKFURT
From The Economist print edition




EIGHT life-size terracotta warriors, thought to be from Xian, China, went on display in Hamburg on November 25th, but are now suspected of being fakes. Museum officials are investigating the latest twist in Germany's fraught relations with China, which took a nosedive after Chancellor Angela Merkel received the Dalai Lama on September 23rd.

The worries about China come as German businessmen are having a difficult time with Ms Merkel closer to home. She has attacked the excessive pay of top executives who put their companies at risk at the expense of other employees, though she stops short of proposing a legal ceiling. She has also threatened to impose a minimum wage on more industries where collective agreements are being side-stepped. German business confidence fell to a 15-year low in the latest poll carried out by ZEW, a research centre in Mannheim.

China regards official contacts with the Dalai Lama, in exile from Tibet since 1959, as a threat to the stability of the province. In late November Wen Jiabao, the Chinese prime minister, demanded an apology, which Ms Merkel shows no sign of giving. Various official visits have been cancelled, including one by Germany's finance minister, Peer Steinbrück, and apprehension is seeping into the business community.

Deutsche Post recently said it had refused to print ready-franked envelopes bearing an image of the Dalai Lama—an attempt to steer clear of the political fracas. Der Spiegel, a weekly magazine, cancelled an exhibition at a museum in Shanghai after complaints about its content. This is small beer, but the evidence is mounting that business as well as political relations between Germany and China are going through a brief ice age. Jürgen Thumann, head of the Federation of German Industry, has urged the government to enter “constructive dialogue” with China. Other industrial leaders have dived for cover since Jürgen Hambrecht, boss of BASF, said the handling of the Dalai Lama's visit was “not very clever”. Ekkehard Schulz, head of ThyssenKrupp, an industrial giant, refused to comment on the matter on December 4th when revealing record profits, due in part to buoyant business in Asia.

There are still hopes that a visit to China by Sigmar Gabriel, the environment minister, will go ahead at the end of January as planned. A lot is at stake. China is Germany's second-biggest export customer outside Europe, and carmakers, chemical firms and makers of industrial machinery are relying on it for growth. Meanwhile the German economy benefits from cheap furniture, office equipment and sports goods from China. These flows are unlikely to be affected in the short term. And big contracts, such as those for Airbus aircraft and nuclear power-stations, in which German firms are members of international consortia, should survive unscathed. But bilateral deals are more at risk.

German projects in the pipeline in China include a €150m ($220m) tyre plant to be built by Continental in Hefei, and two joint-ventures being set up by Daimler to build vans and trucks. Siemens and ThyssenKrupp are hoping for the go-ahead to extend Transrapid, Shanghai's high-speed rail system. Many firms publicly say they are not worried, but there is “growing concern that things are getting more difficult for German business,” says Eberhard Sandschneider of the German Council on Foreign Relations. “China has a record of playing games—not having time for meetings, not signing documents and so on.”

What now? The city of Hamburg, where 400 Chinese firms are registered, hopes it can help to bring about a thaw. In 2006 it hosted an event, “China meets Europe”, which was attended by Mr Wen and three other ministers. Preparations for a similar event scheduled for next September “could be a catalyst for better relations,” says Jens Assmann of Hamburg's Chamber of Commerce. German bosses must be hoping that their strained relations with China—and with Ms Merkel—will improve before then.

TIME FOR EU TO END TIT-FOR-TAT APPROACH TO CHINA

Patrick Messerlin and Razeen Sally
Friday, December 14, 2007


European rhetoric aimed at China is becoming American in style: confrontational and shrill. Trade deficits and exchange rates are the lightning-rods. European Union threats of retaliation have become more frequent.

This new China-bashing is muddle-headed and dangerous. On deficits and exchange rates, the EU's diagnosis is nonsense. It is true the EU's trade deficit with China is soaring, hitting $166.4bn in 2006. While that is still smaller than the US-China trade deficit the deficit has grown much faster. The Chinese renminbi has depreciated about 25 per cent against the euro since 2000, while it has appreciated about 10 per cent against the dollar.

However, the bilateral trade deficit is not a problem. The EU imports more from China, but correspondingly less from other east-Asian countries: the EU's trade deficits have simply shifted from the latter to China. That is because China has become the final-assembly hub for goods exported to the rest of the world. Its corollary is increasing Chinese imports of parts and components from the west and east Asia. The trade deficit is a natural consequence of a massive global reshaping of trade and production.

This obsession with trade deficits also obscures phenomenally good news. Low-cost Chinese imports have been a boon to European consumers, retailers and producers. EU exports to China have more than doubled since 2000 and have grown faster than to any other export destination. European companies have invested over $56bn in China and generated total sales of $134bn in 2006. A big chunk of this was in the form of exports back to Europe. But Chinese domestic sales are growing too: European companies are targeting China's coastal provinces – a market of more than 400m people with explosive rates of growth and a middle class hungry for better-quality goods and services.

The EU has real commercial problems with China, notably the implementation of its World Trade Organisation obligations and domestic obstruction of foreign trade and investment. These are genuine, not bogus. But tit-for-tat protectionism from Brussels will make problems worse, not better. What should the EU do instead?

First, it should deal with its trade and non-trade objectives (such as democracy, human rights and climate change) on separate tracks. Linking them gets Chinese backs up and works against compromise. Far better to tackle commercial issues in a contained, businesslike setting.

Second, the EU should accord China “market-economy status” (MES). Its argument – that China does not yet meet specified market-economy criteria – is specious. These criteria are vague and arbitrary. China is now more market-oriented than Russia and most other developing countries. Yet the EU accords Russia and other developing countries MES, but not China.

Third, the EU and China could agree a series of reciprocal, mutually beneficial concessions as part of an improved bilateral co-operation outside the political theatre of trade negotiations.

In addition to granting China MES, the EU should agree to exercise restraint in using trade remedies generally, such as anti-dumping duties, China-specific “transitional safeguards” and countervailing duties. In return, it should ask China for better, targeted enforcement of intellectual property rights; further opening of China's services markets, especially by addressing domestic regulatory barriers; removal of foreign-investment restrictions in core services sectors; more transparency in subsidies to state-owned enterprises (SOEs); and higher transparency standards for Chinese SOEs and “sovereign wealth funds” that increasingly invest abroad.

These are measures that would contain protectionism on both sides and deepen commercial ties. They would also create political space for Beijing's leadership to continue structural reforms to open its economy further.

Commercial relations between the EU and China could easily end up the other way around, with escalating tit-for-tat protectionism. The EU is the world's biggest trade and investment entity and has a key role to play in smoothing China's integration into the world economy. It should not undermine that chance by becoming increasingly shrill about bogus trade issues.

Razeen Sally is director of the European Centre for International Political Economy in Brussels. Patrick Messerlin is professor of economics at the Institut d'Etudes Politiques in Paris, and chairman of ECIPE's advisory board.

2007年12月10日星期一

Beauty and success

To those that have, shall be given
Dec 19th 2007


The ugly are one of the few groups against whom it is still legal to discriminate. Unfortunately for them, there are good reasons why beauty and success go hand in hand
Illustration by Brett Ryder
IMAGINE you have two candidates for a job. They are both of the same sex—and that sex is the one your own proclivities incline you to find attractive. Their CVs are equally good, and they both give good interview. You cannot help noticing, though, that one is pug-ugly and the other is handsome. Are you swayed by their appearance?

Perhaps not. But lesser, less-moral mortals might be. If appearance did not count, why would people dress up for such interviews—even if the job they are hoping to get is dressed down? And job interviews are turning points in life. If beauty sways interviewers, the beautiful will, by and large, have more successful careers than the ugly—even in careers for which beauty is not a necessary qualification.

If you were swayed by someone's looks, however, would that be wrong? In a society that eschews prejudice, favouring the beautiful seems about as shallow as you can get. But it was not always thus. In the past, people often equated beauty with virtue and ugliness with vice.

Even now, the expression “as ugly as sin” has not quite passed from the language. There is, of course, the equally famous expression “beauty is in the eye of the beholder”, to counter it. But the subtext of that old saw, that beauty is arbitrary, is wrong. Most beholders agree what is beautiful—and modern biology suggests there is a good reason for that agreement. Biology also suggests that beauty may, indeed, be a good rule of thumb for assessing someone of either sex. Not an infallible one, and certainly no substitute for an in-depth investigation. But, nevertheless, an instinctive one, and one that is bound to redound to the advantage of the physically well endowed.

Fearful symmetry
The godfather of scientific study of beauty is Randy Thornhill, of the University of New Mexico. It was Dr Thornhill who, a little over a decade ago, took an observation he originally made about insects and dared to apply it to people.

The insects in question were scorpion flies, and the observation was that those flies whose wings were most symmetrical were the ones that did best in the mating stakes. Dr Thornhill thought this preference for symmetry might turn out to be universal in the animal kingdom (and it does indeed seem to be). In particular, he showed it is true of people. He started with faces, manipulating pictures to make them more and less symmetrical, and having volunteers of the opposite sex rank them for attractiveness. But he has gone on to show that all aspects of bodily symmetry contribute, down to the lengths of corresponding fingers, and that the assessment applies to those of the same sex, as well.

The reason seems to be that perfect symmetry is hard for a developing embryo to maintain. The embryo that can maintain it obviously has good genes (and also a certain amount of luck). It is, therefore, more than just coincidence that the words “health and beauty” trip so easily off the tongue as a single phrase.

Other aspects of beauty, too, are indicators of health. Skin and hair condition, in particular, are sensitive to illness, malnutrition and so on (or, perhaps it would be better to say that people's perceptions are exquisitely tuned to detect perfection and flaws in such things). And more recent work has demonstrated another association. Contrary to the old jokes about dumb blondes, beautiful people seem to be cleverer, too.

One of the most detailed studies on the link between beauty and intelligence was done by Mark Prokosch, Ronald Yeo and Geoffrey Miller, who also work at the University of New Mexico. These three researchers correlated people's bodily symmetry with their performance on intelligence tests. Such tests come in many varieties, of course, and have a controversial background. But most workers in the field agree that there is a quality, normally referred to as “general intelligence”, or “g”, that such tests can measure objectively along with specific abilities in such areas as spatial awareness and language. Dr Miller and his colleagues found that the more a test was designed to measure g, the more the results were correlated with bodily symmetry—particularly in the bottom half of the beauty-ugliness spectrum.

Faces, too, seem to carry information on intelligence. A few years ago, two of the world's face experts, Leslie Zebrowitz, of Brandeis University in Massachusetts, and Gillian Rhodes, of the University of Western Australia, got together to review the literature and conduct some fresh experiments. They found nine past studies (seven of them conducted before the second world war, an indication of how old interest in this subject is), and subjected them to what is known as a meta-analysis.

The studies in question had all used more or less the same methodology, namely photograph people and ask them to do IQ tests, then show the photographs to other people and ask the second lot to rank the intelligence of the first lot. The results suggested that people get such judgments right—by no means all the time, but often enough to be significant. The two researchers and their colleagues then carried out their own experiment, with the added twist of dividing their subjects up by age.

Bright blondes
The results of that were rather surprising. They found that the faces of children and adults of middling years did seem to give away intelligence, while those of teenagers and the elderly did not. That is surprising because face-reading of this sort must surely be important in mate selection, and the teenage years are the time when such selection is likely to be at its most intense—though, conversely, they are also the time when evolution will be working hardest to cover up any deficiencies, and the hormone-driven changes taking place during puberty might provide the material needed to do that.

Nevertheless, the accumulating evidence suggests that physical characteristics do give clues about intelligence, that such clues are picked up by other people, and that these clues are also associated with beauty. And other work also suggests that this really does matter.

One of the leading students of beauty and success is Daniel Hamermesh of the University of Texas. Dr Hamermesh is an economist rather than a biologist, and thus brings a somewhat different perspective to the field. He has collected evidence from more than one continent that beauty really is associated with success—at least, with financial success. He has also shown that, if all else is equal, it might be a perfectly legitimate business strategy to hire the more beautiful candidate.

Just over a decade ago Dr Hamermesh presided over a series of surveys in the United States and Canada which showed that when all other things are taken into account, ugly people earn less than average incomes, while beautiful people earn more than the average. The ugliness “penalty” for men was -9% while the beauty premium was +5%. For women, perhaps surprisingly considering popular prejudices about the sexes, the effect was less: the ugliness penalty was -6% while the beauty premium was +4%.

Since then, he has gone on to measure these effects in other places. In China, ugliness is penalised more in women, but beauty is more rewarded. The figures for men in Shanghai are –25% and +3%; for women they are –31% and +10%. In Britain, ugly men do worse than ugly women (-18% as against -11%) but the beauty premium is the same for both (and only +1%).

The difference also applies within professions. Dr Hamermesh looked at the careers of members of a particular (though discreetly anonymous) American law school. He found that those rated attractive on the basis of their graduation photographs went on to earn higher salaries than their less well-favoured colleagues. Moreover, lawyers in private practice tended to be better looking than those working in government departments.

Illustration by Brett RyderEven more unfairly, Dr Hamermesh found evidence that beautiful people may bring more revenue to their employers than the less-favoured do. His study of Dutch advertising firms showed that those with the most beautiful executives had the largest size-adjusted revenues—a difference that exceeded the salary differentials of the firms in question. Finally, to add insult to injury, he found that even in his own cerebral and, one might have thought, beauty-blind profession, attractive candidates were more successful in elections for office in the American Economic Association.

That last distinction also applies to elections to public office, as was neatly demonstrated by Niclas Berggren, of the Ratio Institute in Stockholm, and his colleagues. Dr Berggren's team looked at almost 2,000 candidates in Finnish elections. They asked foreigners (mainly Americans and Swedes) to examine the candidates' campaign photographs and rank them for beauty. They then compared those rankings with the actual election results. They were able to eliminate the effects of party preference because Finland has a system of proportional representation that pits candidates of the same party against one another. Lo and behold, the more beautiful candidates, as ranked by people who knew nothing of Finland's internal politics, tended to have been the more successful—though in this case, unlike Dr Hamermesh's economic results, the effect was larger for women than for men.

If looks could kill
What these results suggest is a two-fold process, sadly reminiscent of the biblical quotation to which the title of this article refers. There is a feedback loop between biology and the social environment that gives to those who have, and takes from those who have not.

That happens because beauty is a real marker for other, underlying characteristics such as health, good genes and intelligence. It is what biologists call an unfakeable signal, like the deep roar of a big, rutting stag that smaller adolescents are physically incapable of producing. It therefore makes biological sense for people to prefer beautiful friends and lovers, since the first will make good allies, and the second, good mates.

That brings the beautiful opportunities denied to the ugly, which allows them to learn things and make connections that increase their value still further. If they are judged on that experience as well as their biological fitness, it makes them even more attractive. Even a small initial difference can thus be amplified into something that just ain't—viewed from the bottom—fair.

Given all this, it is hardly surprising that the cosmetics industry has global sales of $280 billion. But can you really fake the unfakeable signal?

Dr Hamermesh's research suggests that you can but, sadly, that it is not cost-effective—at least, not if your purpose is career advancement. Working in Shanghai, where the difference between the ugliness penalty and the beauty bonus was greatest, he looked at how women's spending on their cosmetics and clothes affected their income.

The answer was that it did, but not enough to pay for itself in a strictly financial sense. He estimates that the beauty premium generated by such primping is worth only 15% of the money expended. Of course, beauty pays off in spheres of life other than the workplace. But that, best beloved, would be the subject of a rather different article.

Mao and the art of management

Staying at the top


Dec 19th 2007


A role model, of sorts
Corbis
Books on management tend to define success in the broadest possible terms—great product, happy employees, continuous improvement, gobs of profits, crushed competitors. Even when words such as “excellence” and “success” are omitted from the title, they are often implicit. A case in point is the book which many would say defined the genre, Alfred Sloan's “My Years with General Motors”, published in 1963 when GM was still an iconic company and Sloan correctly acknowledged as the architect of the well-run, decentralised, global corporation.

But focusing on how the best produce the best has its limits. Most managers, after all, do not stitch an industrial triumph from a vast bankrupt junkyard, as Sloan did. They do not delight their customer, crush competitors and create vast wealth. They struggle. They stumble.

Where is the book for them? Who can help the under-performing, over-compensated chief executive fighting to survive intrusive journalists, independent shareholders and ambitious vice-presidents who could do a better job? Where is the role model for the manager who really needs a role model most—the one who by any objective measure of performance cannot, and should not, manage at all?

An obvious candidate is Mao. Yes, he was head of a country, not a company. But he self-consciously carried a business-like title, “chairman”, while running China from 1949 until dying in office in 1976, having jailed, killed, or psychologically crushed a succession of likely replacements and therefore created the classic business problem: a succession void. He thought of himself as, in his own words, an “indefatigable teacher” and the famous “Little Red Book” drawn from his speeches is packed with managerial advice on training, motivation and evaluation of lower-level employees (cadres); innovation (“let a hundred flowers bloom”); competition (“fear no sacrifice”); and, of course, raising the game of the complacent manager (relentless self-criticism).

Mao still has at least a symbolic hold over the Chinese economy, even though it began to blossom only after death removed his suffocating hand. His portrait is emblazoned on China's currency, on bags, shirts, pins, watches and whatever else can be sold by the innumerable entrepreneurial capitalists that he ground beneath his heel when in power. No other recent leader of a viable country (outside North Korea, in other words) is so honoured—not even ones that did a good job.

It was not a nurturing management style that won Mao this adulation. According to Jung Chang's and Jon Halliday's “Mao, the Unknown Story”, admittedly an unsympathetic portrait, he was responsible for “70m deaths, more than any other 20th-century leader”. But why stop at the 20th century? In Chinese history, only Emperor Qin Shi Huang, who started building the Great Wall (in which each brick is said to have cost a life), was competition for Mao; and since the population was much smaller then, Mao is likely to have outdone him in absolute numbers.

Botched economic policies caused most of the carnage. Deng Xiaoping, Mao's successor, turned the policies, and eventually the economy, around. Yet he does not even merit an image on a coin.

The disparity between Mao's performance and his reputation is instructive, for behind it are four key ingredients which all bad managers could profitably employ.

• A powerful, mendacious slogan

Born a modestly well-off villager, Mao lived like an emperor, carried on litters by peasants, surrounded by concubines and placated by everyone. Yet his most famous slogan was “Serve the People”. This paradox illustrates one aspect of his brilliance: his ability to justify his actions, no matter how entirely self-serving, as being done for others.

Corbis

Alfred Sloan would have disapproved...Psychologists call this “cognitive dissonance”—the ability to make a compelling, heartfelt case for one thing while doing another. Being able to pull off this sort of trick is an essential skill in many professions. It allows sub-standard chief executives to rationalise huge pay packages while their underlings get peanuts (or rice).

But Mao did not just get a stamp from a compliant board and eye-rolling from employees. He convinced his countrymen of his value. That was partly because, even if his message bore no relation to his actions, it expressed precisely and succinctly what he should have been doing. Consider the truth and clarity of “serve the people” compared with the average company's mission statement, packed with a muddle of words and thoughts tied to stakeholders and CSR, that employees can barely read, let alone memorise.

Deng Xiaoping's slogan, which he used in his campaign to revive the economy, had similar virtues. “Truth from facts” is a sound-bite that Sloan would have loved and every manager should cherish, but you won't find it chiselled on a Chinese wall. It doesn't have the hypocritical idealism of Mao's version—nor was it pushed so hard.

• Ruthless media manipulation

Mao knew not just how to make a point but also how to get it out. Through posters, the “Little Red Book” and re-education circles, his message was constantly reinforced. “Where the broom does not reach”, he said, “the dust will not vanish of itself.” This process of self-aggrandisement is often dismissed as a “personality cult”, but is hard to distinguish from the modern business practice of building brand value.

Yet within China economic growth was pathetic and living conditions were wretched. So why did a vast list of Western political, military and academic leaders accept the value of Mao's brand at his own estimation? Even Stalin, no guileless observer, believed in and, to his later regret, protected Mao. The brand-building lesson is that a clear, utopian message, hammered home relentlessly, can obscure inconvenient facts. Great salesmen are born knowing this. Executives whose strategies are not delivering need to learn it.

Chief executives are not in a position to crush the media as Mao did. Nevertheless, his handling of them offers some lessons. He talked only to sycophantic journalists and his appeal in the West came mainly from hagiographies written by reporters whose careers were built on the access they had to him.

The law constrains the modern chief executive's ability to imitate Mao's PR strategy. Publicly listed companies have to publish information, rather than hand it out selectively. But many, within bounds, emulate Mao's media management; others, determined to control information about them, are delisting. Burrow beneath laudatory headlines on business and political leaders, and it becomes clear that the strategy works.

• Sacrifice of friends and colleagues

“Who are our friends? Who are our enemies? This is a question of first importance,” Mao wrote. Sloan agreed. He worried that favouritism would come at the expense of the single most valuable component of management: the objective evaluation of performance.

Corbis

...but Mao's HR policies meant Happy RevolutionariesMao had a different goal: he did not want people too close to him, and therefore to power; so being Mao's friend often proved more dangerous than being his enemy. One purge followed another. Promotions and demotions were zealously monitored. Bundles of incentives were given and withdrawn. Some demotions turned out well. Deng Xiaoping's exile in a tractor factory may have helped him understand business, and thus rebuild the economy, but that was an unintended benefit.

This approach makes sense. Close colleagues may want your job, and relationships with them may distract you. Mao's abandonment of friends and even wives and children seemed to be based on a calculation of which investments were worth maintaining and which should be regarded as sunk costs. Past favours were not returned. According to Ms Chang and Mr Halliday, a doctor who saved his life was left to die on a prison floor after being falsely accused of disloyalty. Mao let it happen: he had other doctors by then.

Enemies, conversely, can be useful. Mao often blamed battlefield losses on rivals who were made to suffer for these defeats. The names of modern victims of this tactic will be visible on the list of people sacked at an investment bank after a rough quarter; the practitioners are their superiors, or those who have taken their jobs.

• Activity substituting for achievement

Mao was quite willing to avoid tedious or uncomfortable meetings, particularly when he was likely to be criticised. But maybe that helped him avoid getting bogged down. From the Anti-Rightist Movement of the late 1950s to the Great Leap Forward, a failed agricultural and industrial experiment in the early 1960s, to the Cultural Revolution in the late 1960s, Mao was never short of a plan.

Under Mao, China didn't drift, it careened. The propellant came from the top. Policies were poor, execution dreadful and leadership misdirected, but each initiative seemed to create a centripetal force, as everyone looked toward Beijing to see how to march forward (or avoid being trampled). The business equivalent of this is restructuring, the broader the better. Perhaps for the struggling executive, this is the single most important lesson: if you can't do anything right, do a lot. The more you have going on, the longer it will take for its disastrous consequences to become clear. And think very big: for all his flaws, Mao was inspiring.

In the long run, of course, the facts will find you out. But who cares? We all know what we are in the long run.

Nifty ways to leave your lover

By Mrs Moneypenny
Tuesday, December 18, 2007


Breaking up is never much fun, even though these days there are lots of different ways to do it. Take Cost Centre #1, for instance. A few weeks ago he finished with his girlfriend. He did at least do this by telephone, rather than by e-mail or (worse still) text message. But having put down the telephone, he went straight on to the internet, and altered her official status on his Facebook page.

Apparently this relayed the news automatically to everyone linked to his page as a “friend” – some 300 people.

I have to say it makes me glad my teenage dating took place in the pre-internet years. It is bad enough to be handed your P45, but far worse to have 300 people notified of the fact within 30 minutes.


Anyway, CC#1 is now single, or, as his Facebook page says, “not currently in a relationship”.

The Lovely Lucinda is also not currently in a relationship. This is not because she is working so hard for me, what with having to pay my congestion charge and recover my laptop from taxis. It is not even because she is spending so many evenings on her course in bridal flower arranging. In fact I am not sure why LL is single, since she is very beautiful, gracious and kind, and delightful company. While she has been working for me, she has had at least two reasonably serious relationships, but neither of them has come to much.

Like many, if not most, of my single girlfriends, she has also tried internet dating with mixed success. Recently, irritated with her lack of progress in finding someone to marry, she took a week off work and registered with a very upmarket dating agency. Did it need a week? LL tells me that it was a very long and detailed process, with lots of form-filling and an extensive interview.

To me that sounds more like a VAT inspection than a process likely to end in matrimony, but what do I know?

I married a man I met through being randomly seated next to him on a flight – which is as close to computer dating as I was likely to get.

LL also had to write a thumping great cheque to the dating agency. This, I was told, represented a serious investment. Sacrifices would have to be made.

But then LL hit on a novel way of paying for the dating agency. A few weeks earlier, she had bumped into her first husband at some party or other. Yes, LL had a starter marriage. I have never inquired into the causes of its demise but it seems to have been reasonably amicable, although she had not seen the chap for five years. He, though, clearly remains very fond of LL, asking after her wellbeing and wondering whether there was anything he could do for her.

Put on the spot, she couldn't think of anything. (That's the difference between us. Should any ex-boyfriend ask me that question, I would think instantly of a list of things starting with a grouse moor and ending with a Hermes scarf.) But after thinking about it for a few days, LL rang her old flame and told him that, yes, there was something he could do. Would he please pay the bill for the dating agency?

This doesn't seem unreasonable to me. As her first husband isn't going to be the person to father LL's children and take care of her for the next 40 years or so, he could at least help to find someone else to do the job. Indeed, such a practice could even become a new kind of outplacement. Every divorcée should be offered this service – along with anyone in a long-term relationship when it comes to an end.

I can see great potential in this. LL inadvertently may have hit on a very practical solution to (a) the guilt of the departing party and (b) the problem of being put on the secondary market and having to find someone new.

Incidentally, her former husband agreed to her request immediately, took her out to dinner last week and handed over the cash. I shall keep you posted.

So perhaps CC#1 should have offered to pay for his girlfriend to join an internet dating service by way of helping her with her outplacement? Maybe. Though telling 300 Facebook friends that he has broken up with her amounts to pretty much the same thing.

在英文字幕里欣赏昆曲

英国《金融时报》中文网特约撰稿人郑海阳
2007年12月11日 星期二


我的老外朋友John,三年前过境香港时正逢白先勇先生重新策划制作的昆曲青春版《牡丹亭》上演,惊鸿一瞥让他念念不忘,今年上半年上海昆剧院推出《长生殿》时他又不巧因故回国,这次终于抓住了重演的机会,早早来到这里,等待一睹这出中国唐朝悲剧版 “温莎公爵夫妇”的浪漫歌剧——为了给他解释这个剧目,我动用了英国版“江山美人”来作比。

虽然对于三年前的白先勇版《牡丹亭》有所耳闻,但我向来偏执地以为这大概是老人们对于故乡的怀旧情绪作祟而已,而《长生殿》——讲的又是人们烂熟于胸的故事,而全本10个多小时,令人怀疑它会如钱钟书所说“像走了电的电池,读者的心灵电线也似乎跟它们接触,却不能使它们发出旧日的光焰。”

但是令人吃惊的是,观众居然把兰心大戏院挤了个爆满,老年戏迷虽多,年轻人也不在少数,还不乏像John这样的“国际友人”。进入噱头十足的“宫门”,有面部镂空的唐明皇和杨贵妃的立像相迎,不少兴致勃勃金发碧眼的老外凑上前去留下“冠带倩影”,这个有趣的细节令人想起,在200多年前,昆曲也是风靡中国、“家家收拾起、户户不提防”的全民娱乐呢。


显然,就如同当年白先勇版《牡丹亭》的青春气息一扫昆曲垂垂老矣的陈旧印象,《长生殿》无论是在唱腔、舞美、服装方面也更加现代化:布景虽然仍然简练,但通过舞台的升降、位移,令宫殿——荷塘,朝堂——酒肆,乡野——战场的变化显得更为直观;唱腔基本忠于洪升听原作,按曲牌联套体式,唱来悠远迷茫古意盎然,但是演员在念白和表情方面却又十分生动;尤其在“舞盘”一折,杨贵妃在一个翡翠大盘上跳起《霓裳羽衣舞》时更是极尽写实,她不仅换上了全新设计的、完全不同于“水袖”的短袖舞衣,而且连脚下所踏的“翠盘”也是由琉璃工房所制,在特殊的灯光映射下,可谓是美仑美央。

白先勇认为,昆曲是最能表现中国传统美学抒情、写意、象征、诗化的一种艺术……而别的表演艺术呢?歌剧有歌无舞,芭蕾有舞无歌,终究有点缺憾。昆曲却能以最简单朴素的舞台,表现出最繁复的情感意象来。而对于这种意象,尽管John是个老外,却依然十分“入戏”--他盯着舞台的时间,要远远多过字幕——也多过我看字幕的时间。

当然,本剧的翻译杨宪益和戴乃迭可是中国的翻译大家,而剧中的一些对白和唱段,在他们译来既典雅,又晓畅,对于John来说,自然毫不费力,如“金屋藏娇”被译为“Hide sweetheart in gilded chamber”,丝竹被译为“strings and flutes”,可谓“信达雅”俱全。

反而是我,土生土长的中国人,在这时感到眼睛有点忙不过来了,念白的时候还容易一些,特别是到了大段词藻华丽的唱腔时,那些十分古雅的词汇,更是令人挠头:如“椒房”、“翠华摇摇”、“翠翘金雀玉搔头”,相信随便找一个大学文科生,也未必能够准确地说出它的意思吧。

所以大部分的时候,我只能舍弃了华美的表演,去寻找杨、戴两位先生的妙笔生花,哦原来“椒房”是 “scent chamber”,意既熏香的房间,“翠华摇摇”——“The emperor's green-canopied carriage”则是明皇所乘的翠绿色顶盖的轿子,“翠翘金雀玉搔头”——“jade hair-pin with the gold sparrow and green feathers.”有翠绿色羽毛和金制鸟雀的玉簪!

《长生殿》,不,是昆曲,这个300多岁的珠围翠绕、典雅优美的清代美人,居然在向现代的观众投来眼神时,还需要透过英文的纱幕,这是不是和John在英国看用古英语表演的莎剧呢时异曲同工呢?

2007年12月9日星期日

德国首富成功赚钱创业三大秘诀

在《福布斯》杂志公布的全球富豪排行榜中,德国零售商阿尔布莱希特兄弟以230亿和181亿美元的资产分列第3和第14名,并蝉联德国的首富。那么他们是如何苦心经营,由位于穷乡僻壤的食品店主演变为海内外赫赫有名的零售巨商的呢?  中国金融大典

  历经磨难

  上世纪20年代初,卡尔和泰欧·阿尔布莱希特相继出生于德国埃森市郊的小镇舍内贝克。兄弟俩自幼家境贫寒,作为鲁尔煤矿工人的父亲早年因尘肺病失去了工作,母亲只好在市郊矿工生活区开办了一家食品小店,以补贴家用。生活的窘迫使得兄弟俩十几岁便结束了学业,早早走上谋生的道路。卡尔在一家美食店找到了工作,泰欧则帮助母亲打理店铺。家庭生活刚有起色,但不久二战的爆发又中断了他们的平静生活,一直持续到1945年战争结束。当时国内市场百业凋零,兄弟俩四处求职,却屡屡碰壁。适逢不久母亲辞世,于是他们接管了母亲留下的那间窄小的食品店。由于资金拮据,商店开张时简陋的店面也没有修缮,只能出售一些饮料、罐头等本小利薄的商品,维持惨淡经营。他们不断谋求生意的扩展,但一直苦无良策。

  峰回路转

  一次偶然的相遇成了卡尔和泰欧人生中重要的转折点。一天,当他们路过当地一家商店时,发现进出购物的人流络绎不绝。出于好奇他们浏览了店门前的促销广告,其做法是:购物时附赠优惠券,年底凭优惠券可按原累计购物金额的3%免费领取等值商品。原来人们是冲着年底的赠物而来,兄弟俩由此得到了启发。但他们并没有盲目模仿,而是觉察到一些不可预期的情况:如果年底物价上扬,顾客手中的优惠券就会贬值。进一步说如果无力兑现,优惠券何异于空头支票。实际上他们一开始即考虑到信用问题。他们经过深思熟虑决定推出更为稳妥的即时让利的对策,宣布凡店内出售的商品在当地最低价格的基础上再减价3%。并承诺如达不到上述价格水平,可向商店索回差价,并提供奖励。从此,小店内外人头攒动,每天的营业额翻了几番,他们的创业取得了成功。

  随着60年代以来全球零售业的整合,兄弟俩预感到新型折扣零售的前景不可限量,进而发现了自己的使命。1962年他们在多特蒙德开办了第一家名为阿尔迪(ALDI)的折扣商店,它取自阿尔布莱希特(Albrecht)和折扣(Discount)的前两个字母,体现出他们投身折扣零售业的理想。此后,阿尔迪坚持服务大众的经营原则,加上提供的商品质优价廉,不仅低薪阶层情有独钟,也颇受部分中产阶层的青睐。据统计,目前德国75%的居民经常在阿尔迪采购。随着阿尔迪声名鹊起,其连锁店不仅在德国雨后春笋般地涌现出来,在欧美及大洋洲一些国家也形成了绵密的销售网络。  诚实守信

  恪守诚信的原则一直被阿尔布莱希特兄弟奉为圭臬,这主要体现在阿尔迪同顾客及供货商公平无私的关系上。首先是保证商品宁缺勿滥。阿尔迪选择供货商的标准是既看价格,更重质量。凡厂商的供货阿尔迪均定期提交给德国质量监督权威机构“商品检验基金会”检测,除得分良好的予以认可外,其余即使得分合格也不会得到定单。新产品接受定货后,首先要在部分商店进行至少3个月的试销,得不到顾客赏识,同样会被除名。其次是质量控制十分严格。商店平日注重对商品的抽样检查,经常让品尝师蒙上眼睛品尝出售的食品,发现问题立即对厂商提出警告。质量纰漏严重的,阿尔迪则解除收购合同并索赔损失,因而供货商不敢在质量上有丝毫懈怠。同时,为了企业的形象,阿尔迪连外观稍差的商品也不拿出摆放,像顾客挑剩的水果、蔬菜、面包等,每天打烊后均作为垃圾倒掉。至于顾客对所购的商品不满意,不用提出任何解释,阿尔迪均予以退款或退货。再者是守诺取信。阿尔迪曾提出,在原来价格水平上,只要成本下降,就继续对顾客让利销售。每当厂商降低供货价格时,他们不等新货上架,马上更换原有商品标价。宁可承受存货高价低卖的损失,也要兑现让利于民的承诺。对于大多依赖阿尔迪生存的供货商,阿尔迪同样以诚相待。除了对质量稍显“苛刻”外,没有任何额外的要求和追加协议,而且从不拖欠货款。因而,阿尔迪与消费者和供货商关系是建立在相互信任的基础上的。这样,在阿尔迪购物没人会考虑质量和价格问题,与阿尔迪交易同样不用担心违约。久而久之,公众对阿尔迪的普遍印象自然是诚实公道、可信度高。

阿尔迪创立以来,始终坚持了简单化的经营原则。这种简单化由来已久。战后一个时期,国内商店普遍供应短缺,经济复苏后,当其他零售商纷纷扩大花色品种以迎合市场需求时,阿尔迪并没有随波逐流。因为多年来品种匮乏并未影响阿尔迪赚钱,况且扩大品种意味着面对日益增多的厂商,管理复杂程度的加大是不言而喻的。

  为此,他们的对策是从调整品种结构入手,精选出最畅销的商品,并力求以业内最低的价格出售。迄今阿尔迪依然仅保留600-700种商品,而单品的年均采购额却超过4000万欧元, 由此获得了十分低廉的进价,进而使零售价格极具竞争力,弥补了品种单一的缺陷。

  由于奉行简化品种模式显现成效,阿尔迪进而推行了管理的分权化。他们认为,集中管理只能产生没完没了的联络,连篇累牍的数据,应接不暇的请示,滋长独裁管理的倾向。为此,他们将企业划分为阿尔迪北部和南部集团,并在全国划分为66个经营地区,每个地区再下辖60余个商店。公司赋予地区经理进货、配送、财务、人事等直接管理权,并推行员工的自我负责制。这种简单管理的策略既调动了基层经营单位和个人的积极性,又减轻了集团决策层的管理难度,分散了集权经营风险。

  在其他方面,阿尔迪同样主张避繁就简,放弃他们认为是烦琐多余的东西:企业不设监控部门,取消年度计划,不聘咨询顾问,不做公关工作,不要ISO9000认证,不搞差别定价和复杂的核算与统计,没有顾客意见征询,不挂广告招贴等等。按阿尔迪前经理迪特·布兰德斯归纳,在管理上类似的放弃内容就有21项,其结果无疑促进了阿尔迪团队管理效率的提高。  节俭务实

  除了取舍得当,阿尔迪的简单化原则还包括简朴节制。卡尔兄弟崇尚节俭是远近闻名的,这可追溯到在鲁尔开店的时代。据说在当时生意十分火爆的情况下,他们仍宁可让店员每天晚上将该冷藏的食品搬到地下室,也舍不得添置冷柜。这种近于吝啬的俭省后来成为人们茶余饭后的资谈而广为流传。不管怎样,这种人生的理念保持下去,并成为其特有企业文化的组成部分。

  时至今日,尽管家族早已富甲一方,兄弟俩依然躬行节俭,居住在埃森郊区显得寒酸的简易单层楼房,过着普通的平民生活。在经营上他们同样戒奢宁俭,具有高度成本意识:公司总部仅有两幢装修简单的五层办公楼房,没有豪华的公司汽车;德国邮政编码升位多年后,包括泰欧在内的管理人员仍沿用涂改了邮编的旧信纸,办公纸张则常常用完正面再用反面;开店避开昂贵的繁华地段,各家分店毫无装饰,远看像一座座仓库,而市区的门店甚至没有停车场;卖场面积十分紧凑,仅有500~800平方米;商品大多按出厂的纸箱和托盘就地陈列销售,节省空间和理货时间;商品不贴价签,商店大多不使用条码扫描机,仍使用老式的收款机;平均每家商店仅雇用3.3人,员工往往身兼多职;很少在媒体刊登广告,而是通过传单发布商品信息等等。这些节制的举措为阿尔迪降低成本,实施以廉制胜战略奠定了基础。

  多谋善断

  阿尔布莱希特兄弟事业上成功还在于他们的计深虑远。在发展自己零售网络的同时,他们十分关注业内外零售商的动态,揣摩对手的强项和弱点,以便及时调整自己的市场策略。从折扣零售来看,他们采取了全球采购、厂家大批订货、买断和控制厂商货源、与厂商建立产销联盟、委托厂商代工、自产自销等策略,砍掉了原有的中间环节,推出最具价格竞争力的商品,对业内同行造成相当的压力。从相关业态来看,他们很早就观察到位于市郊的仓储商店,其价位较低,但交通不便,有的还要收取会费或批量采购。于是,他们力图将阿尔迪改良成浓缩型仓储超市,不仅把家庭日用品比重提高到20%以上,而且商店分布更便于居民就近零星采购。随着实力的增长,阿尔迪的扩张范围已超出居民社区,其分店常常与大型卖场比肩而立,不断分流对手的客源。同时,他们还瞄准时机,主动跨业竞争,先是针对百货业,每周更换15~20种百货服装商品进行促销,消费者闻讯便蜂拥而至。近年来又针对专营店陆续推出了家用电器和办公用品,如DVD、打印机等,并在德国首开食品超市销售电脑的先河。很难想象,在短短10年间阿尔迪已悄无声息地成为德国第六大纺织品销售商和最大的电脑专营商。

  多年来,阿尔迪能够得心应手地实施创新经营战略,主要在于它能博采众长,善于将不同业态的优势兼收并蓄。同时不断利用低成本的结构整合与扩张,使自己成为以食品为主,兼跨多种行业的复合型零售企业。进而利用竞争对手的市场空隙,不断蚕食其市场份额,取得了市场竞争的主动权。

  深藏若虚

  当阿尔迪逐步成为全球关注的角色时,卡尔兄弟依然处事低调,从不张扬。不出席公开场合社交活动,回避媒体采访,他们最近的照片也是17年前刊登的。由于阿尔迪属于非上市公司,而且兄弟俩既对企业情况讳莫如深,又对媒体的评论和猜测处之漠然,以至多年来没有多少人真正了解他们的经历,对阿尔迪的境况更是雾里看花,没人知道阿尔迪赚了多少钱。因而在公众眼里事关阿尔迪的一切都平添了一层神秘色彩。好在前不久德国官方出台了一项企业公开义务的规定,人们才可以根据媒体的报道,或多或少了解一些阿尔迪现状,结果可能出人意料:目前阿尔迪在全球已拥有6800多家分店,其中国内分店达到4000家,其余2800多家分布在欧美和大洋洲的11个国家。2003年阿尔迪实现销售额370亿欧元,利润超过11亿欧元。据此,它的企业价值被权威机构评估为400亿欧元,相当于戴姆勒·克莱斯勒公司的市值。人们由此方略识“贫民店”的庐山真面目,步入不惑之年的阿尔迪也才逐渐显露出德国折扣零售业霸主的形象。

中国公民赴不丹旅行及申请不丹签证须知

  一、中国公民赴不丹旅行及申请不丹签证须知

  (一)不丹签证只有公务(official)签证和旅游(tourist)签证。公务签证发给持外交、公务护照因公访问不丹的外国政府官员;旅游签证发给因私赴不丹的人员。

  (二)中国与不丹没有外交关系,不丹在华没有使、领馆。中国政府官员因公访问不丹及申办公务签证事宜,可通过不丹驻印度、孟加拉国、泰国、科威特使馆或不丹驻联合国(纽约、日内瓦)代表团联系和安排。因私去不丹访问或旅行的中国公民须通过不丹政府授权的不丹国内的旅行社及其海外合作旅行社代为办理签证。

  (三)申请旅游签证,需填写签证申请表一张,交护照照片两张和签证费20美元。签证申请表可在第六条所述旅行社的网站上下载,并将填写好的签证申请表作为电子信件的附件发送给代办签证的旅行社。签证申请表上的姓名必须与护照上的姓名完全一致,否则即

  使签证获准也不能入境。签证申请由旅行社送交不丹政府内政部审批,审批时间约需一周。签证申请获准后,由旅行社代订机票、旅馆和安排旅行日程。机票上的姓名也必须与护照上的姓名完全一致,否则不能登机。旅游签证均为落地签证,在入境口岸发给。入境时再补交照片和签证费。如有需要,签证可在不丹境内申请延期,最长可延长至6个月,签证延期费为510努(约合100人民币)。

  (四)入境口岸。距不丹首都廷布55公里的帕罗国际机场是进出不丹的唯一航空港,不丹唯一的国家航空公司Druk Air开通了至新德里、加尔各答、达卡、仰光、加德满都和曼谷的航线。此外,不丹南部与印度接壤的边境小镇Phuentsoling有通往印度的陆路口岸,游客亦可由此进出不丹。

  (五)旅行所需费用。为了防止外国游人对不丹自然环境、文化和当地人民生活方式带来负面影响,不丹政府实施低客流高效益的旅游政策,并通过制定最低消费水平的办法来控制游客的人数。不丹政府规定,只有政府授权的旅行社和旅馆才能接待外国游客。外国游客

  则必须由授权的旅行社代办签证、机票和安排食宿及旅行日程并接受旅行社提供的导游。目前,在不丹旅行的最低消费水平为每人每天200美元。

  (六)不丹授权旅行社名单及电子信箱\网址

  Bhutan Himalaya Tours&Travel email:tshomo@druknet.bt

  Bhutan Kaze Tours&Treks email:wings@druknet.bt

  Bhutan Travel&Tourism email:btt@druknet.bt

  Discovery Bhutan email:discovery@druknet.bt

  Dragon Trekkers&Tours email:dragon@druknet.bt

  Eagle Tours&Treks email:eagle@druknet.bt

  Exotic Destination Tours&Treks email:exotic@druknet.bt

  Geo-Cultural Tours&Treks email:chhophelt@yahoo.com

  Gems Tours&Travels email:gem@druknet.bt

  Himalayan Kingdom Tours email:hktours@druknet.bt

  Jeroma Tours&Travels www.bhutanguide.com

  Karmic Tours&Treks www.karmictours.com

  Snow White Treks&Tours www.snowwhitetours.com.bt

  Sophun Tours&Treks www.sophuntoursbhutan.com

  White Lake Adventures www.Jachungtravel.com

  二、不丹医疗条件

  自20世纪80年代以来,不丹政府在改善本国医疗卫生状况方面做了大量工作。不丹现有医疗机构659个,其中医院27座(含5所麻风病医院),疾病中心19个,地方诊所145个。全国已基本消除了碘缺乏症,但疟疾、腹泻和肺病较流行,伤寒、肝炎、白喉、脑炎也时有发生。

  在不丹,医疗药品都以草药为主,这些草药以藏医学和印度古传中药为主,所以去不丹旅游的人宜携带个人常用药品,并随身携带泻药、胃药、消炎药、感冒药等药品。除了上述所说的药品,建议备用晕车药、万金油、风油精、创口贴、维他命C、复合维他命、眼药水、隐形眼镜清洁药水、卫生棉等。

  不丹平均海拔在4000米左右,为了减少高山症的发生,可自行按摩,以减少高原反应。

  为了防止意外,不丹旅游局建议国外游客在出国前申请各自国家的旅游保险,不丹目前尚无此类保险服务。

  廷布大医院(THIMPHU GENERAL HOSPITAL)位于首都廷布,是不丹目前较好的医院,由政府资助,提供免费治疗,但由于条件有限,该医院对复杂病无法治疗。廷布市药店(CITY HPARMACY)和常青药店(EVERGREEN MEDICAL SHOP)是两家较大的药店。

  三、不丹主要参考网站

  不丹国家网http://www.kingdomofbutan.com

  不丹旅游局http://www.btb.com.bt