看到两双好看无比的鞋子,买下~~ 其实已经没有时间穿它们了~~
用这种方式证明自己是个正常的女人吧.
2007年7月22日星期日
Wird China Deutschland als Wirtschaftsmacht überholen？
Analysten gehen davon aus, dass dem Wachstumstempo des BIP in beiden Staaten zufolge China im laufenden Jahr Deutschland übertreffen könnte.
Letzte Woche hat das chinesische Statistikamt seine Angaben über das BIP im Jahr 2006 erhöht. Das chinesische BIP 2006 betrug demnach 21 Billionen Yuan (2,7 Billionen US-Dollar) und sei somit dem deutschen BIP 2006 um den Wert von 2,3 Billionen Euro (2,86 Billionen US-Dollar) näher gekommen.
Morgen wird das chinesische Statistikamt die volkswirtschaftlichen Daten für die erste Jahreshälfte bekannt geben. Die Experten sind der Meinung, dass die Wachstumsrate des chinesischen BIP in der ersten Jahreshälfte bei 11,1 bis 11,5 Prozent liegen werde, während sich das BIP in Deutschland in den ersten sechs Monaten erwartungsgemäß um 2,8 Prozent erhöhen würde.
China könnte damit Deutschland als drittgrößte Wirtschaftsmacht ablösen. Beachtet man aber den Unterschied der Bevölkerungszahlen der beiden Länder (1,3 Milliarden und 82 Millionen), liegt Chinas BIP pro Kopf noch wesentlich niedriger.
(China.org.cn, China Securities Journal, 18. Juli 2007)
Letzte Woche hat das chinesische Statistikamt seine Angaben über das BIP im Jahr 2006 erhöht. Das chinesische BIP 2006 betrug demnach 21 Billionen Yuan (2,7 Billionen US-Dollar) und sei somit dem deutschen BIP 2006 um den Wert von 2,3 Billionen Euro (2,86 Billionen US-Dollar) näher gekommen.
Morgen wird das chinesische Statistikamt die volkswirtschaftlichen Daten für die erste Jahreshälfte bekannt geben. Die Experten sind der Meinung, dass die Wachstumsrate des chinesischen BIP in der ersten Jahreshälfte bei 11,1 bis 11,5 Prozent liegen werde, während sich das BIP in Deutschland in den ersten sechs Monaten erwartungsgemäß um 2,8 Prozent erhöhen würde.
China könnte damit Deutschland als drittgrößte Wirtschaftsmacht ablösen. Beachtet man aber den Unterschied der Bevölkerungszahlen der beiden Länder (1,3 Milliarden und 82 Millionen), liegt Chinas BIP pro Kopf noch wesentlich niedriger.
(China.org.cn, China Securities Journal, 18. Juli 2007)
China überholt Deutschland
Wirtschaftsboom
Auf der Überholspur: China wird bald neuer "Exportweltmeister" sein.- Foto: ddp Von Stefan Kaiser und Harald Maass
19.07.2007 17:06 Uhr Von Stefan Kaiser und Harald Maass
19.07.2007 17:06 Uhr
PEKING/BERLIN - Die chinesische Wirtschaft wächst in rasantem Tempo und ist dabei, Deutschland vom dritten Platz unter den größten Wirtschaftsnationen zu verdrängen. Um 11,9 Prozent legte das Bruttoinlandsprodukt der Volksrepublik im zweiten Quartal zu – so schnell wie seit zwölf Jahren nicht mehr. Das gab das staatliche Statistikamt bekannt. Für das erste Halbjahr steht nun ein Plus von 11,5 Prozent zu Buche.
Damit sei man auf dem besten Weg, Deutschland als drittgrößte Volkswirtschaft – auf Platz eins und zwei liegen die USA und Japan – abzulösen, hieß es aus dem Amt. Viele Ökonomen gehen davon aus, dass dies schon im laufenden Jahr passieren wird. Auch der Bundesverband der Deutschen Industrie (BDI) sieht die heimische Wirtschaft als bereits überholt an – und das, obwohl sie im laufenden Jahr um ordentliche 2,8 Prozent wachsen soll, wie der BDI in seiner jüngsten Prognose mitteilte. Man rechne damit, dass Deutschland schon 2007 von Platz drei auf Platz vier der Wirtschaftsnationen fallen werde, sagte BDI-Hauptgeschäftsführung Klaus Bräunig in Berlin. Er verwies auf den Größenvorteil der 1,3 Milliarden Menschen zählenden Volksrepublik. "Wir sind im Vergleich zu China ein kleines Land", sagte Bräunig. So klein, dass man auch den Titel "Exportweltmeister" wohl bald an China verlieren wird. Ob man Weltmeister oder Vizeweltmeister sei, sei nicht entscheidend, sagte Bräunig. "Wichtig ist, dass wir im Vergleich zu unseren Wettbewerbern wachsen." Der deutsche Export werde in diesem Jahr um zehn Prozent zulegen. Vom starken Wachstum in China habe die deutsche Wirtschaft bisher profitiert.
Auch Michael Heise, Chefvolkswirt von Allianz und Dresdner Bank, betont die Vorteile, die Deutschland aus der chinesischen Stärke ziehen kann. "Wir sollten die Chance sehen, dass sich ein großer Absatzmarkt für deutsche Produkte entwickelt", sagte Heise dem Tagesspiegel. Er rechnet indes nicht damit, dass Deutschland seinen dritten Platz unter den Wirtschaftsnationen schon in diesem Jahr verlieren wird. "Soweit ist es noch nicht", sagte Heise. Selbst bei einen Wachstum von elf Prozent für das gesamte Jahr werde das chinesische Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) das deutsche 2007 nicht überholen. Das ergäben Berechnungen des Finanzhauses. Grund sei vor allem der derzeit starke Euro. Bei der Berechnung haben die Volkswirte einen durchschnittlichen Wechselkurs von 1,36 Dollar pro Euro angenommen. Am Donnerstag lag der Referenzkurs sogar gut zwei Cent darüber.
Keine Feierlaune in China
Das chinesische Überholmanöver dürfte aber auch in diesem Fall nur aufgeschoben sein. Spätestens im kommenden Jahr soll es auch nach Heises Berechnungen so weit sein: "Der Euro-Wechselkurs müsste schon sehr stark steigen, damit China 2008 nicht vorbeizieht."
Der chinesischen Regierung wird trotzdem nicht zum Feiern zumute sein. Vielen Experten ist die überhitze chinesische Wirtschaft nicht mehr geheuer. Spekulationen im Immobilienmarkt haben dafür gesorgt, dass in vielen Städten neugebaute Hochhäuser leer stehen. Am Aktienmarkt, der auf immer neue Rekordhöhen steigt, droht ein Crash. "Der Wirtschaftsboom wird zum Problem", warnt der Ökonom Liu Jipeng. Die Regierung versucht immer wieder, das Wachstum durch Zinserhöhungen und andere Maßnahmen abzukühlen – doch bisher ohne Erfolg.
Zudem treten auch die gesellschaftlichen und ökologischen Probleme der raschen Industrialisierung immer deutlicher hervor. 20 der 30 weltweit am stärksten verschmutzen Städte liegen nach Angaben der Weltbank in China. Weil man immer neue und immer tiefere Brunnen bohrt, drohen riesige Gebiete in Nordchina zu verwüsten. Sozialen Spannungen und Unruhen nehmen zu. Während in den Städten die Gehälter steigen und viele sich Auslandsreisen und teure Autos leisten können, fühlen sich die Bauern und Wanderarbeiter als Verlierer. Viele sind so arm, dass sie nicht einmal einen Arztbesuch leisten können. Ein Zustand, den auch das starke Wirtschaftswachstum bisher kaum mildern konnte.
China überholt Deutschland
Auf der Überholspur: China wird bald neuer "Exportweltmeister" sein.- Foto: ddp Von Stefan Kaiser und Harald Maass
19.07.2007 17:06 Uhr Von Stefan Kaiser und Harald Maass
19.07.2007 17:06 Uhr
PEKING/BERLIN - Die chinesische Wirtschaft wächst in rasantem Tempo und ist dabei, Deutschland vom dritten Platz unter den größten Wirtschaftsnationen zu verdrängen. Um 11,9 Prozent legte das Bruttoinlandsprodukt der Volksrepublik im zweiten Quartal zu – so schnell wie seit zwölf Jahren nicht mehr. Das gab das staatliche Statistikamt bekannt. Für das erste Halbjahr steht nun ein Plus von 11,5 Prozent zu Buche.
Damit sei man auf dem besten Weg, Deutschland als drittgrößte Volkswirtschaft – auf Platz eins und zwei liegen die USA und Japan – abzulösen, hieß es aus dem Amt. Viele Ökonomen gehen davon aus, dass dies schon im laufenden Jahr passieren wird. Auch der Bundesverband der Deutschen Industrie (BDI) sieht die heimische Wirtschaft als bereits überholt an – und das, obwohl sie im laufenden Jahr um ordentliche 2,8 Prozent wachsen soll, wie der BDI in seiner jüngsten Prognose mitteilte. Man rechne damit, dass Deutschland schon 2007 von Platz drei auf Platz vier der Wirtschaftsnationen fallen werde, sagte BDI-Hauptgeschäftsführung Klaus Bräunig in Berlin. Er verwies auf den Größenvorteil der 1,3 Milliarden Menschen zählenden Volksrepublik. "Wir sind im Vergleich zu China ein kleines Land", sagte Bräunig. So klein, dass man auch den Titel "Exportweltmeister" wohl bald an China verlieren wird. Ob man Weltmeister oder Vizeweltmeister sei, sei nicht entscheidend, sagte Bräunig. "Wichtig ist, dass wir im Vergleich zu unseren Wettbewerbern wachsen." Der deutsche Export werde in diesem Jahr um zehn Prozent zulegen. Vom starken Wachstum in China habe die deutsche Wirtschaft bisher profitiert.
Auch Michael Heise, Chefvolkswirt von Allianz und Dresdner Bank, betont die Vorteile, die Deutschland aus der chinesischen Stärke ziehen kann. "Wir sollten die Chance sehen, dass sich ein großer Absatzmarkt für deutsche Produkte entwickelt", sagte Heise dem Tagesspiegel. Er rechnet indes nicht damit, dass Deutschland seinen dritten Platz unter den Wirtschaftsnationen schon in diesem Jahr verlieren wird. "Soweit ist es noch nicht", sagte Heise. Selbst bei einen Wachstum von elf Prozent für das gesamte Jahr werde das chinesische Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) das deutsche 2007 nicht überholen. Das ergäben Berechnungen des Finanzhauses. Grund sei vor allem der derzeit starke Euro. Bei der Berechnung haben die Volkswirte einen durchschnittlichen Wechselkurs von 1,36 Dollar pro Euro angenommen. Am Donnerstag lag der Referenzkurs sogar gut zwei Cent darüber.
Keine Feierlaune in China
Das chinesische Überholmanöver dürfte aber auch in diesem Fall nur aufgeschoben sein. Spätestens im kommenden Jahr soll es auch nach Heises Berechnungen so weit sein: "Der Euro-Wechselkurs müsste schon sehr stark steigen, damit China 2008 nicht vorbeizieht."
Der chinesischen Regierung wird trotzdem nicht zum Feiern zumute sein. Vielen Experten ist die überhitze chinesische Wirtschaft nicht mehr geheuer. Spekulationen im Immobilienmarkt haben dafür gesorgt, dass in vielen Städten neugebaute Hochhäuser leer stehen. Am Aktienmarkt, der auf immer neue Rekordhöhen steigt, droht ein Crash. "Der Wirtschaftsboom wird zum Problem", warnt der Ökonom Liu Jipeng. Die Regierung versucht immer wieder, das Wachstum durch Zinserhöhungen und andere Maßnahmen abzukühlen – doch bisher ohne Erfolg.
Zudem treten auch die gesellschaftlichen und ökologischen Probleme der raschen Industrialisierung immer deutlicher hervor. 20 der 30 weltweit am stärksten verschmutzen Städte liegen nach Angaben der Weltbank in China. Weil man immer neue und immer tiefere Brunnen bohrt, drohen riesige Gebiete in Nordchina zu verwüsten. Sozialen Spannungen und Unruhen nehmen zu. Während in den Städten die Gehälter steigen und viele sich Auslandsreisen und teure Autos leisten können, fühlen sich die Bauern und Wanderarbeiter als Verlierer. Viele sind so arm, dass sie nicht einmal einen Arztbesuch leisten können. Ein Zustand, den auch das starke Wirtschaftswachstum bisher kaum mildern konnte.
China überholt Deutschland
HOW TO BRING GOOD GOVERNANCE TO CHINESE COMPANIES
Susan Aaronson
Monday, July 23, 2007
China is fast becoming the behemoth of the global economy; it already produces one-quarter of global production. But China's market clout is not matched by its governance prowess. The world's political and economic stability is threatened by the Chinese government's failure to implement the rule of law. Modern China has no culture of compliance. Price matters more than quality and bad companies set the norms against which others compete.
China's inadequate governance is everybody's business. Hundreds of people and animals have died; thousands more have been poisoned or made sick by tainted Chinese products. Nations have not responded effectively. Guatemala, Panama, France and the US have beefed up their inspection of Chinese products and halted imports of goods such as tyres, toothpaste, shrimp and toys. Such solutions are politically expedient, but they will not move China towards a culture of compliance.
Meanwhile, Chinese officials have responded inconsistently. On the one hand, the government has acknowledged responsibility for some unsafe food, toys and medicines and co-operated with its trade partners on inspections. At home, it has beefed up plant inspections and warned violators that they will be punished for ignoring Chinese product safety or environmental laws. On the other hand, China has proclaimed that many of the allegations are “protectionist” and must be countered. For example, it blocked the shipment of imported fruits from the US because they contained “excessive amounts of bacteria and moulds”. It also banned imports of Evian water, claiming that it had too much bacteria. Clearly China and many of its trade partners are engaged in an escalating series of tit-for-tat trade disputes. Such disputes will do little to improve China's capacity to enforce product safety or environmental laws.
Trade policymakers must think strategically to address this problem. They will find a mechanism for such action in China's WTO accession agreement. This agreement, signed in 2001, included stringent conditions. First, it required China to ensure effectively to enforce all laws and other measures related to trade. (Product safety standards are examples of regulations pertaining to trade.) Second, it required that China apply WTO rules throughout Chinese territory. Thus, as a condition of accession, China was required to “apply and administer in a uniform, impartial and reasonable manner all its laws, regulations and other measures of the central government as well as local regulations, rules and other measures . . . pertaining to or affecting trade”.
Here is how WTO members might collaborate to use that agreement to hold China to account. Trade officials from affected countries could argue that China's failure to uniformly administer its laws and regulations is distorting trade and, in so doing, China is breaching its accession obligations. These officials might collectively call on China to commence multilateral consultations to settle differences and reassure global consumers that “made in China” is not synonymous with “hazardous to your health”. If talks fail, China and its trade partners might call the WTO director-general to mediate. If unable to find a mutually acceptable solution, complaining countries might formally initiate a trade dispute.
Given the stakes for the Chinese economy, it is unlikely that China would let such a trade dispute go forward. Chinese policymakers do not want the “made in China” label to be the visual equivalent of a danger sign. Chinese officials would probably not only beef up enforcement and penalties, but also try to create a demand for regulation by training business managers about the importance of product safety. Meanwhile, foreign investors will put pressure on their suppliers to test their production, because they now recognise that global consumers may not only reject Chinese-made goods, but may in the future sue those companies that do not ensure product safety.
China may be a behemoth, but it is not a dinosaur. If it is truly a market- oriented economy it will respond to global market pressure to improve its governance. Meanwhile, by collaborating and relying on the international rule of law, China's trade partners will be more likely to ensure that China develops a culture of compliance.
The writer teaches at George Washington University Business School and is the author, with Jamie Zimmerman, of Trade Imbalance: The Struggle to Weigh Human Rights in Trade Policymaking (Cambridge, July 2007)
Monday, July 23, 2007
China is fast becoming the behemoth of the global economy; it already produces one-quarter of global production. But China's market clout is not matched by its governance prowess. The world's political and economic stability is threatened by the Chinese government's failure to implement the rule of law. Modern China has no culture of compliance. Price matters more than quality and bad companies set the norms against which others compete.
China's inadequate governance is everybody's business. Hundreds of people and animals have died; thousands more have been poisoned or made sick by tainted Chinese products. Nations have not responded effectively. Guatemala, Panama, France and the US have beefed up their inspection of Chinese products and halted imports of goods such as tyres, toothpaste, shrimp and toys. Such solutions are politically expedient, but they will not move China towards a culture of compliance.
Meanwhile, Chinese officials have responded inconsistently. On the one hand, the government has acknowledged responsibility for some unsafe food, toys and medicines and co-operated with its trade partners on inspections. At home, it has beefed up plant inspections and warned violators that they will be punished for ignoring Chinese product safety or environmental laws. On the other hand, China has proclaimed that many of the allegations are “protectionist” and must be countered. For example, it blocked the shipment of imported fruits from the US because they contained “excessive amounts of bacteria and moulds”. It also banned imports of Evian water, claiming that it had too much bacteria. Clearly China and many of its trade partners are engaged in an escalating series of tit-for-tat trade disputes. Such disputes will do little to improve China's capacity to enforce product safety or environmental laws.
Trade policymakers must think strategically to address this problem. They will find a mechanism for such action in China's WTO accession agreement. This agreement, signed in 2001, included stringent conditions. First, it required China to ensure effectively to enforce all laws and other measures related to trade. (Product safety standards are examples of regulations pertaining to trade.) Second, it required that China apply WTO rules throughout Chinese territory. Thus, as a condition of accession, China was required to “apply and administer in a uniform, impartial and reasonable manner all its laws, regulations and other measures of the central government as well as local regulations, rules and other measures . . . pertaining to or affecting trade”.
Here is how WTO members might collaborate to use that agreement to hold China to account. Trade officials from affected countries could argue that China's failure to uniformly administer its laws and regulations is distorting trade and, in so doing, China is breaching its accession obligations. These officials might collectively call on China to commence multilateral consultations to settle differences and reassure global consumers that “made in China” is not synonymous with “hazardous to your health”. If talks fail, China and its trade partners might call the WTO director-general to mediate. If unable to find a mutually acceptable solution, complaining countries might formally initiate a trade dispute.
Given the stakes for the Chinese economy, it is unlikely that China would let such a trade dispute go forward. Chinese policymakers do not want the “made in China” label to be the visual equivalent of a danger sign. Chinese officials would probably not only beef up enforcement and penalties, but also try to create a demand for regulation by training business managers about the importance of product safety. Meanwhile, foreign investors will put pressure on their suppliers to test their production, because they now recognise that global consumers may not only reject Chinese-made goods, but may in the future sue those companies that do not ensure product safety.
China may be a behemoth, but it is not a dinosaur. If it is truly a market- oriented economy it will respond to global market pressure to improve its governance. Meanwhile, by collaborating and relying on the international rule of law, China's trade partners will be more likely to ensure that China develops a culture of compliance.
The writer teaches at George Washington University Business School and is the author, with Jamie Zimmerman, of Trade Imbalance: The Struggle to Weigh Human Rights in Trade Policymaking (Cambridge, July 2007)
EU-WIDE GENDER PAY GAP ‘ABSURD'
By Andrew Taylor in London
Monday, July 23, 2007
Girls outperform boys at school and more women enter the labour market with a university degree than men, but a pay gap of 15 per cent persists across the European Union, according to a report published on Wednesday.
Vladimír Spidla, EU employment commissioner, said this was “an absurd situation” and needed to change. The report said the gender pay gap had narrowed only slightly since 1995 when it was 17 per cent.
He called on member states to raise awareness of anti-discrimination laws and make sure they were properly applied. Employers should be encouraged to introduce equal pay and EU social funds used to help close pay gaps, he said.
“Sometimes we see pure discrimination. But often reasons are hidden: women do more unpaid work, like taking care of the household and dependants; more women work part-time and often the women-dominated sectors are on a lower pay scale. We must shift up a gear now,” Mr Spidla said.
The biggest pay differences were in Cyprus and Estonia, at 25 per cent. This was closely followed by Slovakia with a 24 per cent gap. In Germany the pay difference has grown – by 1 percentage point since 1995 to 22 per cent. In Britain it was 20 per cent, down from 26 per cent 10 years earlier.
Jobs requiring similar qualifications or experience tended to be paid less when they were dominated by women, the commission found. “In some countries nannies earned less than car mechanics, supermarket cashiers less than warehouse workers, nurses less than the police,” it said.
Women's career paths were “often interrupted, slower and shorter, and hence less well paid than men's” due to a combination of factors, such as the fact that they tend to do more part-time work and take more frequent career breaks. The study found that women encountered more obstacles on their career paths and lagged behind men in attaining managerial positions.
The commission said pay gaps tended to widen with age and length of service. Differences increased to more than 30 per cent in the 50-59 age group compared with 7 per cent for the under-30s. They widened to as high as 32 per cent for women with more than 30 years' service in a company compared with a 22 per cent difference for women with one to five years' service
Monday, July 23, 2007
Girls outperform boys at school and more women enter the labour market with a university degree than men, but a pay gap of 15 per cent persists across the European Union, according to a report published on Wednesday.
Vladimír Spidla, EU employment commissioner, said this was “an absurd situation” and needed to change. The report said the gender pay gap had narrowed only slightly since 1995 when it was 17 per cent.
He called on member states to raise awareness of anti-discrimination laws and make sure they were properly applied. Employers should be encouraged to introduce equal pay and EU social funds used to help close pay gaps, he said.
“Sometimes we see pure discrimination. But often reasons are hidden: women do more unpaid work, like taking care of the household and dependants; more women work part-time and often the women-dominated sectors are on a lower pay scale. We must shift up a gear now,” Mr Spidla said.
The biggest pay differences were in Cyprus and Estonia, at 25 per cent. This was closely followed by Slovakia with a 24 per cent gap. In Germany the pay difference has grown – by 1 percentage point since 1995 to 22 per cent. In Britain it was 20 per cent, down from 26 per cent 10 years earlier.
Jobs requiring similar qualifications or experience tended to be paid less when they were dominated by women, the commission found. “In some countries nannies earned less than car mechanics, supermarket cashiers less than warehouse workers, nurses less than the police,” it said.
Women's career paths were “often interrupted, slower and shorter, and hence less well paid than men's” due to a combination of factors, such as the fact that they tend to do more part-time work and take more frequent career breaks. The study found that women encountered more obstacles on their career paths and lagged behind men in attaining managerial positions.
The commission said pay gaps tended to widen with age and length of service. Differences increased to more than 30 per cent in the 50-59 age group compared with 7 per cent for the under-30s. They widened to as high as 32 per cent for women with more than 30 years' service in a company compared with a 22 per cent difference for women with one to five years' service
INDIA GAINS FIRST FEMALE PRESIDENT
By Jo Johnson in New Delhi
Monday, July 23, 2007
India's first female president will be sworn in on Wednesday after Pratibha Patil, a controversial candidate who had the backing of the ruling Congress coalition, secured an easy victory in Saturday's election.
Mrs Patil, a former governor of Rajasthan, won 65.8 per cent of votes cast by national lawmakers and state legislators. She had the personal backing of Sonia Gandhi, the Congress party leader, and had been expected to win an unprecedentedly politicised election.
“It is a special moment for us women, and men of course, in our country because for the first time we have a woman being elected president of India,” said Mrs Gandhi, who handpicked Mrs Patil and was one of the first to congratulate her.
Monday, July 23, 2007
India's first female president will be sworn in on Wednesday after Pratibha Patil, a controversial candidate who had the backing of the ruling Congress coalition, secured an easy victory in Saturday's election.
Mrs Patil, a former governor of Rajasthan, won 65.8 per cent of votes cast by national lawmakers and state legislators. She had the personal backing of Sonia Gandhi, the Congress party leader, and had been expected to win an unprecedentedly politicised election.
“It is a special moment for us women, and men of course, in our country because for the first time we have a woman being elected president of India,” said Mrs Gandhi, who handpicked Mrs Patil and was one of the first to congratulate her.
2007年7月20日星期五
中国养老金的商机
英国《金融时报》杰夫•代尔(Geoff Dyer)上海报道
2007年7月20日 星期五
近
来，投资管理业已成为在华投资跨国企业最青睐的领域之一。目前，中国拥有58家基金管理公司，其中26家是中外合资企业。此外，还有数家公司正在等待获批。
共同基金的增长前景是外资对该领域感兴趣的主要原因。中国股市在过去两年的大幅上涨为这种乐观情绪提供了一些论据。截至今年6月30日，基金行业管理的资产规模已从去年年底的8560亿元人民币，迅速增长至1.8万亿元人民币。
然而，在有关股市的新闻报道背后，还有另外一个因素推动外资进入中国的资产管理行业：来自中国养老金体系的商业潜力。
上月，荷兰全球人寿(Aegon)与总部位于上海的兴业证券(Industrial Securities)组建了一家合资资产管理公司。这家荷兰保险集团着重指出，养老金业务是做出这一决定背后的主要原因。
该集团董事长唐仕德(Don Shepard)表示：“对于像我们这样的公司来说，中国的养老金业务是一个重大机会。”
这些公司的算盘非常清楚。它们希望，中国隐现的养老金危机将成为拥有销售养老金记录的企业的巨大商机。
自从上世纪70年代末实行计划生育政策以来，中国的人口增长已经得到了控制，但这一政策也导致中国人口迅速老龄化，给养老金储备造成了巨大问题。目前，中国工人与养老金领取人员的比率为3：1。到2015年，这一比率将下降到2：1，在30年后将下降到1：1。
这种局面的后果是巨大的养老金缺口。研究显示，中国的养老金偿付义务相当于国内生产总值(GDP)的70%至140%。
在意识到这个潜在的问题后，中国有关部门一直试图对该体系实行改革，其中一些改革可能给基金管理公司和保险公司带来利润丰厚的商机。然而，正如中国的许多这种领域一样，企业高管们需要把握的关键是准确预测这种前景何时能转变为现实。
这些领域之一就是雇员自愿参加的企业养老金市场——有时也被称为企业年金市场。2年前，中国政府向首批15家企业年金管理公司发放了执照，其中包括加拿大蒙特利尔银行(Bank of Montreal)、德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)、富通(Fortis)和荷兰国际集团(ING)在中国内地的合资公司。政府估计，目前这些公司管理的企业年金约为150亿元人民币，业内高管希望这个数字将在几年内增长至1000亿元人民币左右。
深圳博时基金管理有限公司(Boshi Fund Management)的一位高管表示：“我们正在期待企业养老金保险体制出现重大改变。”博时基金是获得企业年金管理执照的15家公司之一。
但据行业高管和咨询顾问的报告称，目前企业年金领域的增长速度较为缓慢。企业年金的管理会很复杂，因为监管规定要求，养老金资产应由运营投资基金以外的其它团队经营。
此外，促进该领域增长的激励机制尚未建立起来。尽管使用该计划的企业能够享受一定的税收优惠，但雇员却几乎没有利用这种养老金计划存钱的动机。
荷兰全球人寿的唐仕德表示：“仍有许多条例需要明确，特别是在税收方面。”
对基金管理公司而言，养老金业务迄今的最大来源，一直是全国社保基金(National Social Security Fund)。全国社保基金由中国政府于2001年设立，是中央政府最后的养老金发放机构。在运用专业投资服务方面，该基金在中国一直是先行者。
全国社保基金的资金主要来自国有企业在海外进行首次公开发行(IPO)所筹资金的一部分。行业高管认为，其规模将在数年内匹敌加州公务员退休基金(Calpers)，或新加坡政府的投资管理公司。
行业顾问机构Z-Ben Advisers估计，在该基金4000亿元人民币的资产中，目前多达30%由第三方管理。去年年底，该基金首次任命基金管理机构代表它管理海外投资。
在获得授权的10家公司中，有几家尚未在大陆投资设立合资企业，例如联博有限公司(Alliance Bernstein)和T Rowe Price等。
然而，尽管该行业对可能从全国社保基金获得的长期投资额度抱有信心，但目前的额度仍然不大。社保基金的第一笔海外投资大约为20亿美元，由10家公司分配。
对养老金服务提供方而言，由地方政府管理的养老金计划是第三个潜在的市场。到目前为止，地方政府官员一直自己管理这些基金，其透明度非常低。
然而，这方面目前已经出现了一些变化的迹象，特别是在上海社保基金重大丑闻爆发后。去年9月，因一群高级官员违规使用上海多达三分之一的养老金基金一事败露，时任上海市委书记的陈良宇被当局逮捕。此案迫使上海对其养老金的管理模式进行了重大改革，包括建立了一家独立公司管理养老金。
上海尚未公布其养老金管理方式的细节，包括是否授权第三方机构管理部分养老金。然而，一些观察人士认为，这可能是更大规模地改革地方政府养老金体系的第一步。
“上海社保基金值得密切关注，”Z-Ben Advisors的彼得•亚历山大(Peter Alexander)表示，“全国社保基金的模式很可能在全国复制，第三方管理机构将在其中扮演重要角色。”
译者/ 何黎
2007年7月20日 星期五
近
来，投资管理业已成为在华投资跨国企业最青睐的领域之一。目前，中国拥有58家基金管理公司，其中26家是中外合资企业。此外，还有数家公司正在等待获批。
共同基金的增长前景是外资对该领域感兴趣的主要原因。中国股市在过去两年的大幅上涨为这种乐观情绪提供了一些论据。截至今年6月30日，基金行业管理的资产规模已从去年年底的8560亿元人民币，迅速增长至1.8万亿元人民币。
然而，在有关股市的新闻报道背后，还有另外一个因素推动外资进入中国的资产管理行业：来自中国养老金体系的商业潜力。
上月，荷兰全球人寿(Aegon)与总部位于上海的兴业证券(Industrial Securities)组建了一家合资资产管理公司。这家荷兰保险集团着重指出，养老金业务是做出这一决定背后的主要原因。
该集团董事长唐仕德(Don Shepard)表示：“对于像我们这样的公司来说，中国的养老金业务是一个重大机会。”
这些公司的算盘非常清楚。它们希望，中国隐现的养老金危机将成为拥有销售养老金记录的企业的巨大商机。
自从上世纪70年代末实行计划生育政策以来，中国的人口增长已经得到了控制，但这一政策也导致中国人口迅速老龄化，给养老金储备造成了巨大问题。目前，中国工人与养老金领取人员的比率为3：1。到2015年，这一比率将下降到2：1，在30年后将下降到1：1。
这种局面的后果是巨大的养老金缺口。研究显示，中国的养老金偿付义务相当于国内生产总值(GDP)的70%至140%。
在意识到这个潜在的问题后，中国有关部门一直试图对该体系实行改革，其中一些改革可能给基金管理公司和保险公司带来利润丰厚的商机。然而，正如中国的许多这种领域一样，企业高管们需要把握的关键是准确预测这种前景何时能转变为现实。
这些领域之一就是雇员自愿参加的企业养老金市场——有时也被称为企业年金市场。2年前，中国政府向首批15家企业年金管理公司发放了执照，其中包括加拿大蒙特利尔银行(Bank of Montreal)、德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)、富通(Fortis)和荷兰国际集团(ING)在中国内地的合资公司。政府估计，目前这些公司管理的企业年金约为150亿元人民币，业内高管希望这个数字将在几年内增长至1000亿元人民币左右。
深圳博时基金管理有限公司(Boshi Fund Management)的一位高管表示：“我们正在期待企业养老金保险体制出现重大改变。”博时基金是获得企业年金管理执照的15家公司之一。
但据行业高管和咨询顾问的报告称，目前企业年金领域的增长速度较为缓慢。企业年金的管理会很复杂，因为监管规定要求，养老金资产应由运营投资基金以外的其它团队经营。
此外，促进该领域增长的激励机制尚未建立起来。尽管使用该计划的企业能够享受一定的税收优惠，但雇员却几乎没有利用这种养老金计划存钱的动机。
荷兰全球人寿的唐仕德表示：“仍有许多条例需要明确，特别是在税收方面。”
对基金管理公司而言，养老金业务迄今的最大来源，一直是全国社保基金(National Social Security Fund)。全国社保基金由中国政府于2001年设立，是中央政府最后的养老金发放机构。在运用专业投资服务方面，该基金在中国一直是先行者。
全国社保基金的资金主要来自国有企业在海外进行首次公开发行(IPO)所筹资金的一部分。行业高管认为，其规模将在数年内匹敌加州公务员退休基金(Calpers)，或新加坡政府的投资管理公司。
行业顾问机构Z-Ben Advisers估计，在该基金4000亿元人民币的资产中，目前多达30%由第三方管理。去年年底，该基金首次任命基金管理机构代表它管理海外投资。
在获得授权的10家公司中，有几家尚未在大陆投资设立合资企业，例如联博有限公司(Alliance Bernstein)和T Rowe Price等。
然而，尽管该行业对可能从全国社保基金获得的长期投资额度抱有信心，但目前的额度仍然不大。社保基金的第一笔海外投资大约为20亿美元，由10家公司分配。
对养老金服务提供方而言，由地方政府管理的养老金计划是第三个潜在的市场。到目前为止，地方政府官员一直自己管理这些基金，其透明度非常低。
然而，这方面目前已经出现了一些变化的迹象，特别是在上海社保基金重大丑闻爆发后。去年9月，因一群高级官员违规使用上海多达三分之一的养老金基金一事败露，时任上海市委书记的陈良宇被当局逮捕。此案迫使上海对其养老金的管理模式进行了重大改革，包括建立了一家独立公司管理养老金。
上海尚未公布其养老金管理方式的细节，包括是否授权第三方机构管理部分养老金。然而，一些观察人士认为，这可能是更大规模地改革地方政府养老金体系的第一步。
“上海社保基金值得密切关注，”Z-Ben Advisors的彼得•亚历山大(Peter Alexander)表示，“全国社保基金的模式很可能在全国复制，第三方管理机构将在其中扮演重要角色。”
译者/ 何黎
杭州最美丽的路
英国《金融时报》中文网特约撰稿人：俞雷
2007年7月20日 星期五
从杭州西湖边的断桥出发，直至西湖十景之一的曲院风荷，这段路叫做“北山路”，被称为世界上最美丽的路之一。
北山路沿着里西湖，傍着宝石山，高大的悬铃木笼盖着两车道的道路，一边是宝石山下各种历史上著名的别墅，一边是西湖。倘若是夏季，湖面上还会有着层层叠叠的荷花飘来的清香，如果不是此时惯有的高温，人间天堂真就是没有缺憾了。但若是晚上，还总是有些在湖边散步和吹吹湖风的人。宝石山上耸立着的保俶塔，仿佛就是它的路标了。
这大约2公里长的路上，我最喜欢的一个去处是镜湖厅。其实它并不出名，算是上世纪80年代后才建造的一处景观，仿古建筑、檐廊和几处假山零星地散落在里面，它和园林的唯一区别可能就是没有围墙。坐在镜湖厅的石椅上，对面望过去是孤山。孤山因为林和靖曾经在此的隐居生活而出名，他也在那里写下过“疏影横斜水清浅,暗香浮动月黄昏”的著名咏梅诗句。
但今天的游客大多不是冲着对岸的梅花来的，镜湖厅一带，晚上灯光幽暗，离开马路也有点距离，适合朋友喝茶聊天或是恋人的成双成对。就算是一个人来此，也仿佛是到了另一个人间。不知为什么，北山路总会让你思考人生，湖对岸望去，是繁华喧嚣、灯红酒绿的都市，而北山路却要宁静许多。俗世间名利的算计和人间天堂田园诗般的仙境生活的交叉，只相隔着一个西湖，如何能让人不矛盾呢？
历史的旧迹也和肯德基或是各种各样的旅游商店相互交叉着。北山路快到尽头处，便是岳庙，这里是抗金英雄岳飞的衣冠塚，对面则是各式各样借着岳庙的人气兜售各种低劣旅游产品的店家。岳飞的“三十功名尘与土，八千里路云和月”的超然与感慨终究还是落入了世俗的包围。很少有人知道，离北山路不远处的山上，还埋葬着岳飞的老部下牛皋，他的墓孤零零地在小径的一隅，与生时的大气概截然相反。岳庙一带几乎是北山路最繁华的所在，但也是最不北山路的所在。
尽管北山路连接着“断桥残雪”、“苏堤春晓”、“曲院风荷”这几个西湖十景，但很少有旅游团体把北山路本身当作一景的。比起白堤苏堤，它更是算不上什么有名的景致。但诸多名人都曾把这条路当作是自己筑庐的所在。蒋经国、丰子恺、史量才等等，都在此有故居。北山路没有那么多地方可供旅游者来拍照，但它却适合生活。尽管，如今要在北山路买一处房子，希望已是极其渺茫了，光是亿万富翁还远远不够，这里的住所，差不多都快成文物了。
当年的西湖十大佳人苏小小的墓地，现在也葬在了北山路与孤山交汇处的一个小亭子里。这个亭子叫做慕才亭。她生前写过“何处结同心，西泠松柏下”的诗句。后人倒是如了她的心愿，慕才亭就在西泠桥边。只是，如今再也没有了她的油璧车，也没有了她爱慕着的骑青骢马的阮德郁。
2007年7月20日 星期五
从杭州西湖边的断桥出发，直至西湖十景之一的曲院风荷，这段路叫做“北山路”，被称为世界上最美丽的路之一。
北山路沿着里西湖，傍着宝石山，高大的悬铃木笼盖着两车道的道路，一边是宝石山下各种历史上著名的别墅，一边是西湖。倘若是夏季，湖面上还会有着层层叠叠的荷花飘来的清香，如果不是此时惯有的高温，人间天堂真就是没有缺憾了。但若是晚上，还总是有些在湖边散步和吹吹湖风的人。宝石山上耸立着的保俶塔，仿佛就是它的路标了。
这大约2公里长的路上，我最喜欢的一个去处是镜湖厅。其实它并不出名，算是上世纪80年代后才建造的一处景观，仿古建筑、檐廊和几处假山零星地散落在里面，它和园林的唯一区别可能就是没有围墙。坐在镜湖厅的石椅上，对面望过去是孤山。孤山因为林和靖曾经在此的隐居生活而出名，他也在那里写下过“疏影横斜水清浅,暗香浮动月黄昏”的著名咏梅诗句。
但今天的游客大多不是冲着对岸的梅花来的，镜湖厅一带，晚上灯光幽暗，离开马路也有点距离，适合朋友喝茶聊天或是恋人的成双成对。就算是一个人来此，也仿佛是到了另一个人间。不知为什么，北山路总会让你思考人生，湖对岸望去，是繁华喧嚣、灯红酒绿的都市，而北山路却要宁静许多。俗世间名利的算计和人间天堂田园诗般的仙境生活的交叉，只相隔着一个西湖，如何能让人不矛盾呢？
历史的旧迹也和肯德基或是各种各样的旅游商店相互交叉着。北山路快到尽头处，便是岳庙，这里是抗金英雄岳飞的衣冠塚，对面则是各式各样借着岳庙的人气兜售各种低劣旅游产品的店家。岳飞的“三十功名尘与土，八千里路云和月”的超然与感慨终究还是落入了世俗的包围。很少有人知道，离北山路不远处的山上，还埋葬着岳飞的老部下牛皋，他的墓孤零零地在小径的一隅，与生时的大气概截然相反。岳庙一带几乎是北山路最繁华的所在，但也是最不北山路的所在。
尽管北山路连接着“断桥残雪”、“苏堤春晓”、“曲院风荷”这几个西湖十景，但很少有旅游团体把北山路本身当作一景的。比起白堤苏堤，它更是算不上什么有名的景致。但诸多名人都曾把这条路当作是自己筑庐的所在。蒋经国、丰子恺、史量才等等，都在此有故居。北山路没有那么多地方可供旅游者来拍照，但它却适合生活。尽管，如今要在北山路买一处房子，希望已是极其渺茫了，光是亿万富翁还远远不够，这里的住所，差不多都快成文物了。
当年的西湖十大佳人苏小小的墓地，现在也葬在了北山路与孤山交汇处的一个小亭子里。这个亭子叫做慕才亭。她生前写过“何处结同心，西泠松柏下”的诗句。后人倒是如了她的心愿，慕才亭就在西泠桥边。只是，如今再也没有了她的油璧车，也没有了她爱慕着的骑青骢马的阮德郁。
Clean tech in China
Green shoots
Jul 19th 2007 | SHANGHAI
From The Economist print edition
A new venture hopes to promote clean-technology investment in China
CHINA is not feted for its stewardship of the environment. One recent World Bank report found that 16 of the world's 20 most polluted cities were in China; and a draft version of another puts the total economic cost of outdoor air and water pollution at around $100 billion a year, or 5.8% of China's GDP. By some estimates, China has now overtaken America to become the world's largest producer of greenhouse gases. Environmental protests, such as one that took place in Xiamen last month in response to a plan to build a chemical plant in the city, are on the rise.
The pollution that has resulted from China's growth is a huge problem, but to investors it presents an enormous opportunity. Venture-capital investment in clean tech in China is picking up, increasing by 147% from $170m in 2005 to $420m last year, according to the Cleantech Group, an industry research body. Most of this investment was in solar energy, a booming field in which several Chinese firms have gone public in the past year. But though China has now become the world's third-largest manufacturer of solar panels, most of them are exported, thanks to the subsidies offered in the developed world.
Several initiatives aim to promote the development and deployment of clean technologies within China itself. The most prominent is the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto protocol, the United Nations' treaty on climate change. Under the CDM, projects that reduce emissions of greenhouse gases in poor countries earn credits, which can be purchased by rich countries in lieu of reducing their own emissions as required by the treaty. The Chinese government has already approved 524 such projects; China accounted for 61% of the CDM market last year, which was worth nearly $5 billion.
The Chinese government is also introducing environmental targets of its own in areas such as building regulations, appliance efficiency and the energy consumption of big companies. Meeting them will require vast sums to be spent on new technologies, and several schemes involving local and foreign institutions aim to encourage that investment. The latest, announced in Beijing this week, is a non-profit, public-private organisation called the Joint US-China Co-operation on Clean Energy (JUCCCE). It grew out of an energy conference that took place in Shanghai in April and is headed by Peggy Liu, a former Silicon Valley executive who is now a venture capitalist in China.
Ms Liu says its aim is to compress 30 years of clean-tech development into just ten, in part by bringing together innovators and investors. It will promote investment in both reducing energy demand and greening supply. It is particularly enthusiastic about the prospects for trimming energy consumption in buildings, which can be two or three times more energy-hungry in China than elsewhere. Rob Watson, a JUCCCE member and the man behind LEED, a popular standard used to certify green buildings around the world, says he has been commuting to China regularly in recent years to advise local builders and contractors. He likens the energy-distribution system to a “leaky bucket” and says plugging the obvious holes could have a big impact relatively quickly.
Last year the government set a goal of reducing the energy consumption of new buildings by 50%, and in some cases by 65%. Yet success depends not only on the strength of regulations, but also on the zeal with which local authorities enforce them. As in the rest of the world, relatively few green technologies are competitive without subsidies or incentives of some sort. A shining exception is solar-powered water heaters, of which China has more than any other country. Chinese firms sold $2.6 billion of them last year alone.
The combination of environmental degradation, economic growth and manufacturing prowess means that China “has the opportunity to be at the forefront in finding solutions to the energy problem that the world faces”, says Richard Branson, a British businessman who is investing in a range of clean-tech initiatives. In the 1960s, after all, Japan was also a fast-growing, polluted country; yet today Japanese firms are the leading manufacturers of hybrid cars and solar panels.
Jul 19th 2007 | SHANGHAI
From The Economist print edition
A new venture hopes to promote clean-technology investment in China
CHINA is not feted for its stewardship of the environment. One recent World Bank report found that 16 of the world's 20 most polluted cities were in China; and a draft version of another puts the total economic cost of outdoor air and water pollution at around $100 billion a year, or 5.8% of China's GDP. By some estimates, China has now overtaken America to become the world's largest producer of greenhouse gases. Environmental protests, such as one that took place in Xiamen last month in response to a plan to build a chemical plant in the city, are on the rise.
The pollution that has resulted from China's growth is a huge problem, but to investors it presents an enormous opportunity. Venture-capital investment in clean tech in China is picking up, increasing by 147% from $170m in 2005 to $420m last year, according to the Cleantech Group, an industry research body. Most of this investment was in solar energy, a booming field in which several Chinese firms have gone public in the past year. But though China has now become the world's third-largest manufacturer of solar panels, most of them are exported, thanks to the subsidies offered in the developed world.
Several initiatives aim to promote the development and deployment of clean technologies within China itself. The most prominent is the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto protocol, the United Nations' treaty on climate change. Under the CDM, projects that reduce emissions of greenhouse gases in poor countries earn credits, which can be purchased by rich countries in lieu of reducing their own emissions as required by the treaty. The Chinese government has already approved 524 such projects; China accounted for 61% of the CDM market last year, which was worth nearly $5 billion.
The Chinese government is also introducing environmental targets of its own in areas such as building regulations, appliance efficiency and the energy consumption of big companies. Meeting them will require vast sums to be spent on new technologies, and several schemes involving local and foreign institutions aim to encourage that investment. The latest, announced in Beijing this week, is a non-profit, public-private organisation called the Joint US-China Co-operation on Clean Energy (JUCCCE). It grew out of an energy conference that took place in Shanghai in April and is headed by Peggy Liu, a former Silicon Valley executive who is now a venture capitalist in China.
Ms Liu says its aim is to compress 30 years of clean-tech development into just ten, in part by bringing together innovators and investors. It will promote investment in both reducing energy demand and greening supply. It is particularly enthusiastic about the prospects for trimming energy consumption in buildings, which can be two or three times more energy-hungry in China than elsewhere. Rob Watson, a JUCCCE member and the man behind LEED, a popular standard used to certify green buildings around the world, says he has been commuting to China regularly in recent years to advise local builders and contractors. He likens the energy-distribution system to a “leaky bucket” and says plugging the obvious holes could have a big impact relatively quickly.
Last year the government set a goal of reducing the energy consumption of new buildings by 50%, and in some cases by 65%. Yet success depends not only on the strength of regulations, but also on the zeal with which local authorities enforce them. As in the rest of the world, relatively few green technologies are competitive without subsidies or incentives of some sort. A shining exception is solar-powered water heaters, of which China has more than any other country. Chinese firms sold $2.6 billion of them last year alone.
The combination of environmental degradation, economic growth and manufacturing prowess means that China “has the opportunity to be at the forefront in finding solutions to the energy problem that the world faces”, says Richard Branson, a British businessman who is investing in a range of clean-tech initiatives. In the 1960s, after all, Japan was also a fast-growing, polluted country; yet today Japanese firms are the leading manufacturers of hybrid cars and solar panels.
Computer security
The bounty hunters
Jul 19th 2007
From The Economist print edition
An attempt to offer a legitimate outlet for hackers who want to earn an honest crust
Satoshi Kambayashi
HERE is a dilemma. Suppose you are a computer hacker and you discover a bug in a piece of software that, if it were known to the bad guys, would enable them to steal money or even a person's identity. It would be a feather in your cap. But feathers do not pay the rent. So how might you sell your discovery for the highest price? Asking for cash from the company that sold the buggy software in the first place sounds a bit like blackmail. The implicit threat is that if the firm does not stump up, the knowledge might end up in disreputable hands. But, in truth, it is mainly that possibility which gives the bug value in the first place. What, then, is a fair price, and who is to negotiate it?
Since economics, like nature, abhors a vacuum, a small industry of “security companies” has emerged to exploit the hackers' dilemma. These outfits buy bugs from hackers (euphemistically known as “security researchers”). They then either sell them to software companies affected by the flaws, sometimes with a corrective “patch” as a sweetener, or use them for further “research”, such as looking for more significant—and therefore more lucrative—bugs on their own account. Such firms seek to act as third parties that are trusted by hacker and target alike; the idea is that they know the market and thus know the price it will bear. Often, though, neither side trusts them. Hackers complain that, if they go to such companies to try to ascertain what represents a fair price, the value of their information plummets because too many people now know about it. Software companies, meanwhile, reckon such middlemen are offered only uninteresting information. They suspect, perhaps cynically, that the good stuff is going straight to the black market.
Last week, therefore, saw the launch of a service intended to make the whole process of selling bugs more transparent while giving greater rewards to hackers who do the right thing. The company behind it, a Swiss firm called WabiSabiLabi, differs from traditional security companies in that it does not buy or sell information in its own right. Instead, it provides a marketplace for such transactions.
Converting kudos to cash
A bug-hunter can use this marketplace in one of three ways. He can offer his discovery in a straightforward auction, with the highest bidder getting exclusive rights. He can sell the bug at a fixed price to as many buyers as want it. Or he can try to sell the bug at a fixed price exclusively to one company, without going through an auction.
WabiSabiLabi brings two things to the process besides providing the marketplace. The first is an attempt to ensure that only legitimate traders can buy and sell information. (It does this by a vetting process similar to the one employed by banks to clamp down on money launderers.) The second is that it inspects the goods beforehand to make certain that they live up to the claims being made about them.
Herman Zampariolo, the head of WabiSabiLabi, says that hundreds of hackers have registered with the company since the marketplace was set up. So far only four bugs have been offered for sale, and the prices offered for them have been modest, perhaps because buyers are waiting to see how the system will work. A further 200 bugs, however, have been submitted and are currently being scrutinised.
If such bug auctions are to succeed, they will have to overcome a number of obstacles. One is that if the seller is too clear about what he is offering, the buyer might be able to figure out what is being offered without actually paying for it. Another is that the chance of someone else discovering a bug increases with time. A hacker thus needs to sell his find quickly, which requires the verification process to be streamlined. But perhaps the most significant snag to running a bug auction is a legal one.
Jennifer Granick, a lawyer at Stanford University who has studied the area for several years, reckons that if someone using a marketplace like WabiSabiLabi's went on to commit a crime with a bug they had bought there, then the owners of that marketplace could be in trouble. Under American criminal law, those owners would have to be shown to have been acting knowingly in order for a prosecution to succeed. A civil action, however, would have to demonstrate only recklessness.
In cowboy films, the goodies wear white hats while the baddies wear black ones. Computer hackers have adopted these symbols to describe, respectively, legitimate practitioners of their art and their nefarious counterparts. In becoming the first company to establish bug auctions, WabiSabiLabi may have breathed life into a third type of cowboy, the sort that sports a grey hat. And the field of hacking, through losing its moral certitude, may have grown up a little.
Jul 19th 2007
From The Economist print edition
An attempt to offer a legitimate outlet for hackers who want to earn an honest crust
Satoshi Kambayashi
HERE is a dilemma. Suppose you are a computer hacker and you discover a bug in a piece of software that, if it were known to the bad guys, would enable them to steal money or even a person's identity. It would be a feather in your cap. But feathers do not pay the rent. So how might you sell your discovery for the highest price? Asking for cash from the company that sold the buggy software in the first place sounds a bit like blackmail. The implicit threat is that if the firm does not stump up, the knowledge might end up in disreputable hands. But, in truth, it is mainly that possibility which gives the bug value in the first place. What, then, is a fair price, and who is to negotiate it?
Since economics, like nature, abhors a vacuum, a small industry of “security companies” has emerged to exploit the hackers' dilemma. These outfits buy bugs from hackers (euphemistically known as “security researchers”). They then either sell them to software companies affected by the flaws, sometimes with a corrective “patch” as a sweetener, or use them for further “research”, such as looking for more significant—and therefore more lucrative—bugs on their own account. Such firms seek to act as third parties that are trusted by hacker and target alike; the idea is that they know the market and thus know the price it will bear. Often, though, neither side trusts them. Hackers complain that, if they go to such companies to try to ascertain what represents a fair price, the value of their information plummets because too many people now know about it. Software companies, meanwhile, reckon such middlemen are offered only uninteresting information. They suspect, perhaps cynically, that the good stuff is going straight to the black market.
Last week, therefore, saw the launch of a service intended to make the whole process of selling bugs more transparent while giving greater rewards to hackers who do the right thing. The company behind it, a Swiss firm called WabiSabiLabi, differs from traditional security companies in that it does not buy or sell information in its own right. Instead, it provides a marketplace for such transactions.
Converting kudos to cash
A bug-hunter can use this marketplace in one of three ways. He can offer his discovery in a straightforward auction, with the highest bidder getting exclusive rights. He can sell the bug at a fixed price to as many buyers as want it. Or he can try to sell the bug at a fixed price exclusively to one company, without going through an auction.
WabiSabiLabi brings two things to the process besides providing the marketplace. The first is an attempt to ensure that only legitimate traders can buy and sell information. (It does this by a vetting process similar to the one employed by banks to clamp down on money launderers.) The second is that it inspects the goods beforehand to make certain that they live up to the claims being made about them.
Herman Zampariolo, the head of WabiSabiLabi, says that hundreds of hackers have registered with the company since the marketplace was set up. So far only four bugs have been offered for sale, and the prices offered for them have been modest, perhaps because buyers are waiting to see how the system will work. A further 200 bugs, however, have been submitted and are currently being scrutinised.
If such bug auctions are to succeed, they will have to overcome a number of obstacles. One is that if the seller is too clear about what he is offering, the buyer might be able to figure out what is being offered without actually paying for it. Another is that the chance of someone else discovering a bug increases with time. A hacker thus needs to sell his find quickly, which requires the verification process to be streamlined. But perhaps the most significant snag to running a bug auction is a legal one.
Jennifer Granick, a lawyer at Stanford University who has studied the area for several years, reckons that if someone using a marketplace like WabiSabiLabi's went on to commit a crime with a bug they had bought there, then the owners of that marketplace could be in trouble. Under American criminal law, those owners would have to be shown to have been acting knowingly in order for a prosecution to succeed. A civil action, however, would have to demonstrate only recklessness.
In cowboy films, the goodies wear white hats while the baddies wear black ones. Computer hackers have adopted these symbols to describe, respectively, legitimate practitioners of their art and their nefarious counterparts. In becoming the first company to establish bug auctions, WabiSabiLabi may have breathed life into a third type of cowboy, the sort that sports a grey hat. And the field of hacking, through losing its moral certitude, may have grown up a little.
Minorities in Germany
The integration dilemma
Jul 19th 2007 | BERLIN
From The Economist print edition
Both government and immigrants must work harder on integration
WHEN Angela Merkel convened an “integration summit” a year ago minorities applauded. The new chancellor was rallying government, business and society to bring immigrants into the mainstream. But when Ms Merkel held a second summit on July 12th the mood had changed. Four Turkish migrant groups boycotted it to show, as Memet Kilic of the German Foreigners' Council puts it, that “migrants are not masochists”.
The boycotters are incensed by changes in the immigration law that will make it harder for foreigners, especially Turks, to come to Germany. Migrants from poor countries joining spouses in Germany must now pass a language test before arrival. Foreign spouses must also be at least 18 (to discourage arranged marriages and child brides). To obtain citizenship young foreigners will now need a job, a place in school or a good excuse for having neither. This tightens standards that were loosened in the late 1990s. Turks, the largest migrant group after ethnic Germans from other countries, complain that the measures are aimed at them. “This means: We don't want you,” says Özcan Mutlu, a Green member of Berlin's legislature who represents the Kreuzberg district, home to many Turks.
Rejection starts young. Children are only ten (or 12 in Berlin) when their high school is chosen. For nearly half of foreign students it is the Hauptschule, which prepares them for low-skilled jobs. Only 14% go to a pre-university Gymnasium, compared with a national average of a third. The drop-out rate for children of immigrant backgrounds is three times the national average, says Mr Mutlu.
The differences persist in the job market, even between migrants and German-born citizens with similar education. Unemployment for foreign-born residents with little schooling was 20.3% in 2003-04, compared with 15.6% for people born in Germany, according to the OECD, a Paris-based think-tank. For those with higher education the gap widens: 12.5% for foreign-born residents and just 4.4% for native Germans.
Young Turks can make matters worse. Many native Germans complain that migrants' children do not learn German and are prone to criminality. Only a third of Turks have become German citizens, in part because dual citizenship is not allowed. Many young Turks are more religious than their parents, fuelling fears of a spread of fundamentalism. A plan to build a big mosque in Cologne has sparked protests by right-wing extremists and criticism from leading Catholics and Jews. There are grumbles that Muslim children dodge sports and biology classes for religious reasons, though Mr Mutlu claims that only 68 of Berlin's 70,000 immigrant students did this. Some 2.5m Turks have gone home since the early 1960s. Most new legal immigration consists of family reunions.
The idea that Turks, who began arriving nearly 50 years ago, are an indigestible minority is belied by countless success stories. But what is astonishing, says Kay Hailbronner, of the University of Constance, is that, after so much time, integration “partly didn't happen.”
The government's response has been to issue a sort of German dress code. Immigrants “are welcome, but you also have to get to know our culture,” says Wolfgang Schäuble, the interior minister, who rejects the growth of “parallel societies”. The first integration summit led to 400 proposals, which were launched at the second with a promise of €750m ($1 billion) a year to pay for them. They include ideas such as expanding language and culture training and steps to raise employment. But the appeal of such measures is undone by the changes to the immigration law which, unlike the integration plan, were adopted without consulting immigrants' representatives. The government is not wrong to want immigrants to be good Germans. But Germany also needs to be a better host.
Jul 19th 2007 | BERLIN
From The Economist print edition
Both government and immigrants must work harder on integration
WHEN Angela Merkel convened an “integration summit” a year ago minorities applauded. The new chancellor was rallying government, business and society to bring immigrants into the mainstream. But when Ms Merkel held a second summit on July 12th the mood had changed. Four Turkish migrant groups boycotted it to show, as Memet Kilic of the German Foreigners' Council puts it, that “migrants are not masochists”.
The boycotters are incensed by changes in the immigration law that will make it harder for foreigners, especially Turks, to come to Germany. Migrants from poor countries joining spouses in Germany must now pass a language test before arrival. Foreign spouses must also be at least 18 (to discourage arranged marriages and child brides). To obtain citizenship young foreigners will now need a job, a place in school or a good excuse for having neither. This tightens standards that were loosened in the late 1990s. Turks, the largest migrant group after ethnic Germans from other countries, complain that the measures are aimed at them. “This means: We don't want you,” says Özcan Mutlu, a Green member of Berlin's legislature who represents the Kreuzberg district, home to many Turks.
Rejection starts young. Children are only ten (or 12 in Berlin) when their high school is chosen. For nearly half of foreign students it is the Hauptschule, which prepares them for low-skilled jobs. Only 14% go to a pre-university Gymnasium, compared with a national average of a third. The drop-out rate for children of immigrant backgrounds is three times the national average, says Mr Mutlu.
The differences persist in the job market, even between migrants and German-born citizens with similar education. Unemployment for foreign-born residents with little schooling was 20.3% in 2003-04, compared with 15.6% for people born in Germany, according to the OECD, a Paris-based think-tank. For those with higher education the gap widens: 12.5% for foreign-born residents and just 4.4% for native Germans.
Young Turks can make matters worse. Many native Germans complain that migrants' children do not learn German and are prone to criminality. Only a third of Turks have become German citizens, in part because dual citizenship is not allowed. Many young Turks are more religious than their parents, fuelling fears of a spread of fundamentalism. A plan to build a big mosque in Cologne has sparked protests by right-wing extremists and criticism from leading Catholics and Jews. There are grumbles that Muslim children dodge sports and biology classes for religious reasons, though Mr Mutlu claims that only 68 of Berlin's 70,000 immigrant students did this. Some 2.5m Turks have gone home since the early 1960s. Most new legal immigration consists of family reunions.
The idea that Turks, who began arriving nearly 50 years ago, are an indigestible minority is belied by countless success stories. But what is astonishing, says Kay Hailbronner, of the University of Constance, is that, after so much time, integration “partly didn't happen.”
The government's response has been to issue a sort of German dress code. Immigrants “are welcome, but you also have to get to know our culture,” says Wolfgang Schäuble, the interior minister, who rejects the growth of “parallel societies”. The first integration summit led to 400 proposals, which were launched at the second with a promise of €750m ($1 billion) a year to pay for them. They include ideas such as expanding language and culture training and steps to raise employment. But the appeal of such measures is undone by the changes to the immigration law which, unlike the integration plan, were adopted without consulting immigrants' representatives. The government is not wrong to want immigrants to be good Germans. But Germany also needs to be a better host.
Rebranding Berlin
In search of the 1920s
Jul 19th 2007 | BERLIN
From The Economist print edition
A capital that is short of prosperous people
TO ANYONE driving through Berlin's empty streets, this capital of 3.4m seems a backwater. Klaus Wowereit, its Social Democratic mayor, wants to improve Berlin's “poor but sexy” image. On the back of last year's World Cup, he would like to promote it as a glamorous metropolis reminiscent of its 1920s heyday. Armed with a two-year €10m ($14m) budget from Berlin's Senate, Mr Wowereit has duly launched his “City of Change” campaign.
Selling Berlin as a world city is hard. It has lots of renovated museums, theatres and clubs, plus 400 contemporary-art galleries. Artists, film-makers and some politicians have revived its big-city feel. But whereas London and Paris boast plenty of rich people, Berlin does not. One in two live on a pension or unemployment benefit; even those with jobs earn an average of only €32,600 a year. Well-heeled Germans pay the odd visit, but prefer to live in more opulent places like Munich or Hamburg. Berlin is also saddled with €61 billion of debt.
As the largest industrial city in Europe in the early 1900s, Berlin bustled with bankers, entrepreneurs, scientists and inventors. It played host to the invention of nylon, nuclear fission and talking films. Reduced to rubble in 1945, the city was rebuilt and then rebuilt again after unification in 1990. But most industries have long gone. The city lost two-thirds of its remaining manufacturing jobs when cold-war subsidies that propped up both sides ended. The economy is now largely service-based.
Like the Big Apple campaign that helped to revive bankrupt New York in the 1970s, Mr Wowereit's initiative, co-ordinated by Berlin Partner, the city's business-development and marketing office, will be aimed at business, investors and tourists. The hope is to capitalise on small signs of renewed confidence shown by economic growth of 1.9% in 2006 (although that is well below the overall German figure of 2.8%).
Cheap and easy to get around, Berlin offers rich pickings for foreigners who snap up residential and commercial property. It had 7m visitors last year, making it third in Europe after London and Paris. A delayed €2 billion project to expand Schönefeld airport for wide-bodied jets will be ready by 2011. At least Berlin will have a world-class airport.
Jul 19th 2007 | BERLIN
From The Economist print edition
A capital that is short of prosperous people
TO ANYONE driving through Berlin's empty streets, this capital of 3.4m seems a backwater. Klaus Wowereit, its Social Democratic mayor, wants to improve Berlin's “poor but sexy” image. On the back of last year's World Cup, he would like to promote it as a glamorous metropolis reminiscent of its 1920s heyday. Armed with a two-year €10m ($14m) budget from Berlin's Senate, Mr Wowereit has duly launched his “City of Change” campaign.
Selling Berlin as a world city is hard. It has lots of renovated museums, theatres and clubs, plus 400 contemporary-art galleries. Artists, film-makers and some politicians have revived its big-city feel. But whereas London and Paris boast plenty of rich people, Berlin does not. One in two live on a pension or unemployment benefit; even those with jobs earn an average of only €32,600 a year. Well-heeled Germans pay the odd visit, but prefer to live in more opulent places like Munich or Hamburg. Berlin is also saddled with €61 billion of debt.
As the largest industrial city in Europe in the early 1900s, Berlin bustled with bankers, entrepreneurs, scientists and inventors. It played host to the invention of nylon, nuclear fission and talking films. Reduced to rubble in 1945, the city was rebuilt and then rebuilt again after unification in 1990. But most industries have long gone. The city lost two-thirds of its remaining manufacturing jobs when cold-war subsidies that propped up both sides ended. The economy is now largely service-based.
Like the Big Apple campaign that helped to revive bankrupt New York in the 1970s, Mr Wowereit's initiative, co-ordinated by Berlin Partner, the city's business-development and marketing office, will be aimed at business, investors and tourists. The hope is to capitalise on small signs of renewed confidence shown by economic growth of 1.9% in 2006 (although that is well below the overall German figure of 2.8%).
Cheap and easy to get around, Berlin offers rich pickings for foreigners who snap up residential and commercial property. It had 7m visitors last year, making it third in Europe after London and Paris. A delayed €2 billion project to expand Schönefeld airport for wide-bodied jets will be ready by 2011. At least Berlin will have a world-class airport.
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