佐立克：能跑马拉松的政客

作者：英国《金融时报》克里什纳•古哈(Krishna Guha)
2007年6月6日 星期三


罗伯特•佐立克(Robert Zoellick)的整个职业生涯，展示了他作为一名长跑选手的适应能力（他个人马拉松最好成绩是2小时32分钟）。他的坚韧得到了回报——他被美国提名出任世界银行(World Bank)第11任行长。

这个机遇差点儿未能到来。直到上周，他看上去似乎注定要当一位美国公职人员：一个得到了很高的评价、却从未获得与其才华相匹配的顶级职务的人。2005年的时候他曾觊觎这一职位，但美国副总统迪克•切尼(Dick Cheney)插手干预，力挺其伊拉克战争支持者保罗•沃尔福威茨(Paul Wolfowitz)之后，佐立克被忽略了。他毫无怨言地接受了第二套方案，成为了美国国务院的二号人物。但是，当他2006年竞争美国财政部部长一职又败给汉克•保尔森(Hank Paulson)后，他跳槽去了高盛(Goldman Sachs)。

现在，他被选中出任世行行长，证明了他的履历和政见。作为一个忠诚的共和党人(Republican)，佐立克受到总统乔治•布什(George W. Bush)和切尼的尊敬，但又不属于其中一位的小圈子。而这一次与2005年不同，他半独立的身份成为了一种优势。对于犹豫不决的布什来说，佐立克是为数不多的可以提名、同时又能为全世界其它国家所接受的人选之一。

佐立克生于1953年，在伊利诺伊州Napierville长大。他的父亲是一名参加过二战和朝鲜战争的老兵，在儿子身边摆放了许多战争纪念品。这使佐立克对军事史产生了浓厚的兴趣，从美国内战到祖鲁起义。（佐立克曾以一边发表有关军事策略的演说，一边带领客人参观盖茨堡战场而闻名。）他的84岁的母亲格拉迪斯对《圣彼得堡时报》（St Petersburg Times）表示，她的儿子喜欢有关“美国革命战争以及所有战争的书籍。但我知道，他沉迷于有关内战的书籍，他一直如此。”

她回忆道，佐立克还是Napierville的一名学生时，就积极参与政治，操作自己的竞选活动，两次当选学生会主席。他的雄心也体现在了学术方面，他以优等生的身份从哈佛大学法学院(Harvard Law School)毕业。

他首次进入华盛顿圈内，是投入美国政治的奠基人之一詹姆斯•贝克(James Baker)的门下。他从80年代起在美国财政部追随贝克，成为处理拉丁美洲债务危机、以及制定卢浮宫协定(Louvre Accord)和广场协定(Plaza Accord)的核心人物。当贝克改任美国国务卿时，他也带上了佐立克。作为一名冷战末期的高级外交官，他在德国统一过程中涉足颇深，当时，世界银行在转变这个前苏联阵营国家的经济时，扮演了重要的角色。

他从贝克那里学到了外交政策现实主义方面的经验。虽然不是一位理论家，但佐立克是美国价值和利益的拥护者，同时坚信美国的良性影响。他的模式已成为一种通过发展实现的和平民主——而非通过占领实现民主——就像在德国和日本那样。作为美国国务院的二号人物，他将中国定义为全球体系中“负责任的利益相关者”(responsible stakeholder)，这个短语现在已成为美国外交中的一个常见词汇。

在他那横跨国际经济、外交、金融和政治的职业生涯中，让佐立克引以为豪的是自己作为一名战略家和战术家的技能。他非常喜欢政治强硬手段——在2000年选举期间佛罗里达州重新计票时，他就是用这种方式帮助了布什，他还非常喜欢争论的技巧面。佐立克表示：“认识我的人，大多都是从我生活的一个方面来了解我的，我往往从比较中吸取经验。”

即便如此，他也缺乏一个政治家与生俱来的魅力。他不是一个自然而然的闲聊对象，总是显得傲慢而冷淡。一名官员表示，佐立克在为布什担任贸易代表时，喜欢咄咄逼人，他对自己节略的把握到了“实在令人生厌的”程度，而且只关注结果。他还是个挑剔的着装者，穿着绣字的衬衫，胡子总是精心修剪过（不过他妈妈最近指出，他该理发了）。

作为贸易谈判代表，佐立克会进行大幅度调整，适应对方的目标和政治方面的约束，不过他也很强硬。一位欧洲官员指出，他具有“一种任何人都不具备的独特谈判风格。他会说：‘这是我的底线。如果你决定接受，请你告诉我，最好在15分钟以内。'”

即便如此，他还习惯于打断其他贸易谈判代表的讲话，特别是日本代表，当他感觉他们是在念准备好的概要稿时，就总是打断他们。有一件事广为人知：他在坎昆(Cancun)为一个贸易协定进行了艰苦努力之后，终于大发脾气，与欧盟(EU)贸易专员彼得•曼德尔森(Peter Mandelson)吵翻了。这件事最后成了公开、孩子气的反唇相讥，两人为到底是谁挂断了对方电话而争论不休。

作为管理者，人们认为他是一个强硬的老板，有时候还粗暴无礼，严于律己也严以待人——他通常每天工作13个小时（不过也会努力留出一些时间看书、跑步、赏鸟）。一位美国贸易官员表示：“有人认为他思想深邃、品行高雅。还有人认为他态度强硬、过于苛求。对另一些人来说，最突出的是，他总是大喊大叫，爱发脾气。”另一位他以前的同事指出，他“不是个爱大喊大叫的人，”但是对员工“有影响力”。一位以前担任行政官员的人士指出：“他要求苛刻，”但是，“他知道如何推动宽泛的议程和赢得支持。他还具有正直的品格，能够坚持立场。”

在沃尔福威茨遭到员工群起反对之后，几乎可以肯定，在世行采取生硬和对抗的方式会产生事与愿违的结果。佐立克在管理上有一些经验，但在这种规模和复杂程度的管理上并没有经验。然而，佐立克风格有很多方面可能会吸引世行的员工——如高效决策和致力于培养精英。此外，他表现出了一种与他人结盟的才能，与政治背景不同的人——比如曼德尔森的前任、现任世贸组织(WTO)总干事帕斯卡•拉米(Pascal Lamy)——建立牢固的关系。佐立克表示，他懂得，银行行长必须促成股东之间的合作。“一个人可以想出全世界最好的策略和创意，但是，如果不能付诸实施，它就不是一种策略。”

译者/何黎







THE MARATHON MAN


By Krishna Guha
Wednesday, June 06, 2007


Throughout his career Robert Zoellick has shown the resilience of the long distance runner that he is (his personal best for a marathon is two hours and 32 minutes). Last week he reaped the rewards of that tenacity when he was made US nominee to become the 11th president of the World Bank.

It was a moment that almost did not arrive. Until this week it had looked as if he was fated to be one of the nearly men of US public life: a highly-rated figure who never secured the top position his talent suggested. Although he had coveted the role,he was passed over as World Bank chief in favour of Paul Wolfowitz, after Dick Cheney, vice- president, intervened in 2005 to give it to his Iraq war ally. He dutifully accepted the B-prize, as number two at the State department. But after he ran second to Hank Paulson for the job of US Treasury secretary in 2006, he jumped ship to Goldman Sachs.

The fact that he has been selected now is a testament to his resumé and his politics. A Republican loyalist, Mr Zoellick is respected by both President George W. Bush and Mr Cheney, but is not part of either man's inner circle. This time - unlike in 2005 - his semi-detached status worked to his advantage. Mr Zoellick was one of the few figures a weakened Mr Bush could nominate who could be seen as acceptable to the rest of the world.

He was born in 1953 and grew up in Napierville, Illinois. His father was a second world war and Korean war veteran andsurrounded his son with military memorabilia. That left his son with a passion for military history, from the US civil war to Zulu uprisings. (Mr Zoellick has been known to deliver lectures on military strategy while taking guests on a run around the battlefield of Gettysburg.) His 84- year-old mother, Gladys, told the St Petersburg Times that her son liked books about "the Revolutionary war and all the wars. But I know he is a civil war addict. He always has been."

As a student in Napierville he was politically active, running his own campaign to become elected student president, twice, she recalled. His ambition carried over into academia where he graduated magnum cum laude from Harvard Law School.

He first earned his Washington stripes as a protégé of James Baker, one of the éminences grises of US politics. He started with him at the US Treasury in the 1980s, becoming a central figure in dealing with the Latin America debt crisis, as well as the Louvre and Plaza currency accords. When Mr Baker moved to become secretary of state, he took Mr Zoellick with him. As a senior US diplomat at the end of the cold war he was deeply involved in German reunification, at a time when the World Bank played a key role in the transition economies of the former Soviet bloc.

From Mr Baker he learnt the lessons of foreign policy realism. While never an ideologue, Mr Zoellick has stood as a champion of US values and interests and a firm believer in the benign influence of the US. His model has been one of peaceful democratisation through development, not democratisation through occupation, as in Germany and Japan. As number two at the State department, he defined the vision of China as a "responsible stakeholder" in the world system, a phrase that is now an enduring concept of US diplomacy.

During a career that spans international economics, diplomacy, finance and politics, Mr Zoellick has prided himself on his skills as a strategist and tactition. He relishes political hardball - as he did helping Mr Bush during the 2000 election recount in Florida - as well as the technical aspects of disputes. "Most of the people who know me know me from one part of my life," Mr Zoellick says. "I tend to draw from comparative experience."

Even so, he lacks the instinctive charm of a politician. He is not a natural schmoozer, and can come over as arrogant and aloof. As US trade representative for Mr Bush, an official said, he liked to play offence, was in command of his brief to a "truly nerdish" degree and utterly focused on results. He is also a fastidious dresser, wearing monogrammed shirts and keeping his moustache attentively trimmed (although his mother last week noted that he needed a haircut).

As trade negotiator, Mr Zoellick was sharply attuned to the other side's goals and political constraints, but also tough. One European official says he had "a unique negotiating style with none of the poker player about it. He says: 'Here is my bottom line. Let me know when you have decided to accept it, preferably in the next 15 minutes.'"

Even so, he had a habit of repeatedly interrupting other trade negotiators, particularly from Japan, when he felt they were reading from a prepared brief. He famously lost his patience after driving hard for a trade deal in Cancun, and had a falling out with Peter Mandelson, EU trade commissioner, which ended in open, childish recriminations over which of them had hung up the phone on the other.

As a manager he is seen as a tough boss, at times abrasive, who demanded the highest standards of himself and others - he commonly works 13-hour days (although he does manage some time off for reading, running and bird watching). A US trade official said: "There were those that found him thoughtful and gracious. Others thought him tough and demanding. For others what sticks out is that he yelled a lot and lost his temper." Another former colleague said he was "not a shouter" but was "forceful" with staff. A former administration official said: "He is demanding," but "he knows how to move a broad agenda and rally support. He also has the integrity to take a stand on issues."

After the staff rebellion against Mr Wolfowitz, a blunt and confrontational approach would almost certainly backfire at the bank. Mr Zoellick has some management experience, but nothing on this scale and complexity. Yet aspects of the Zoellick style - efficient decision-making and a commitment to meritocracy - may appeal to bank staff. Moreover, he has shown a talent as a coalition-builder able to forge strong relationships with people, such as Pascal Lamy, Mr Mandelson's predecessor, now head of the World Trade Organisation, who come from different political backgrounds. Mr Zoellick says he understands that a bank president must forge coalitions among stakeholders. "One can have the best strategy and ideas in the world but unless one can operationalise it, it is not a strategy."